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It’s West Coast for me, to the tune of 78 points. That’s my Thursday Night Forecast, what’s yours?
What? You were expecting something longer? OK, fine.
This game is not going to go well for Essendon. West Coast have been Dr Jekyl at home this season and play host to the Dons off of their bye and with sentiment towards them at a season-long low.
The Eagles are the easy beats of this year’s finalists, which might be true, but for a team that made a number of moves to make good on a grand final appearance in 2015 that would be considered a failed season. They will be primed to shred.
Home-field advantage is going to be critical in this season’s finals series, with four Victorian teams and four non-Victorian teams. Indeed, the Hawks could end up with the strongest home-field advantage of the top eight, given they’re the only MCG tenant that looks likely to be playing in September.
That’s another story for another time. Suffice to say, though, given the tightly bunched nature of this year’s top eight, top spot is still faintly in play for every team.
And it could all be decided by games like this one: big, big victories to help boost percentages and help break the inevitable ties that will exist across the final eight.
In the final nine rounds, the top eight play each other 13 times in what will effectively be eight-point games – winning not only gives you four points, but it keeps it off one of your rivals who are also hungry for top six, top four and top two finishes. Six of those games are in the final three rounds, which has worked out deliciously for the AFL and its fixture team.
More interesting in the context of this evening, though, are the times that the bottom three teams – the punching bags of the league in the run home – are to front up for a pantsing against the top eight. There are nine of these guaranteed blowouts coming in the final nine rounds, starting with tonight’s game.
So far this season, these three have scored an average of 67.2 points per game, and conceded 122.2 points per game, against top eight sides for a percentage of 182. Over a 22-game season, a victory of that magnitude is worth about eight percentage points of percentage. Every basis point is going to be mighty important in separating the bevvy of 15, 16 or 17 win teams up top.
So, who gets them? Let’s find out.
| ESS | BRI | GCS | |
| ADE | ● | ● | |
| GEE | ● | ● | |
| GWS | ● | ● | |
| HAW | |||
| NOR | |||
| SYD | |||
| WCE | ● | ||
| WBD | ● | ● |
Tonight is West Coast’s last chance, therefore, to give itself a meaningful percentage boost ahead of the push towards a home final. Adelaide, Geelong, GWS and the Western Bulldogs, on the other hand, get two more bites at the cherry, while North Melbourne, the Hawks and Sydney are done fluffing their pillows this year.
Right, as to the game at hand, the market has given Essendon a 72.5 point head start and considers this one a complete mozz straight up. It is not going to be a spectacle like last Saturday night’s thriller between the Cats and Saints, but there is plenty to watch out for.
Nic Naitanui has developed an entertaining habit of eating cumbersome opposition ruckmen alive this year; his absence will rob us of some spectacularly clean centre breaks. Luke Shuey has been in career-best form this year – shame much of the rest of the side has taken a step back – and with Scott Lycett back in the side after a discipline-induced absence, there’s still some centre bounce fun to be had.
Josh Kennedy has a habit of beating up on weak opposition too, and, well, Essendon are weak opposition. Last week, Kennedy kicked five goals straight against the Lions, despite playing just 65 per cent of the game.
In 2016, he’s kicked 13 points per game against teams inside the top eight, and 30 points per game against teams outside the top eight, including 18 goals and four points in three games against the current bottom three. Again, I think we can comfortably predict a bag for Kennedy this evening.
Essendon are probably going to struggle to break above their season average of 57.8 points per game scored against top-eight opponents this evening. West Coast’s defensive unit has performed well this season, albeit not at the top four level they achieved last year on account of their then-unique zone structure.
Essendon have played a possession-heavy, kick-mark game this year which will allow them to move the ball around, but once it gets to the pointy end of the ground West Coast’s back six will devour the comedy show that is Essendon’s forward line whole.
Car crash TV looks like the order of the evening, but you know what? It’ll still be a better watch than Season 97 of MasterChef, Thursday night ‘rugby’ league or indeed Car Crash Britain on ONE. Wimbledon will also be on as a back-up plan should things get out of hand early.
To pay homage to the opening line of this sort-of match preview, it’ll be West Coast in a canter, by 13 goals or more. That’s my Thursday night forecast, what’s yours?