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As we get towards the pointy end of the season, here are this week’s Round 15 betting tips.
West Coast versus Essendon
Essendon travel across the Nullarbor for the second time this year to take on the West Coast Eagles on Thursday night. The Bombers will be hoping this trip ends better than their last venture to Western Australia, when Fremantle smashed them by 79 points.
That hope is flickering at best, as the Eagles are 8-0 against bottom ten teams in 2016 and 6-1 at home.
Essendon have lost 11 straight games and haven’t passed 90 points in a game this season, with that score coming in their last game against the GWS Giants. They played more attacking football in that game, and will need to continue in that vein.
They face an Eagles team that has averaged 121 points at home and goes inside its 50-metre line 54 times a game, more than nine times more than the 18th ranked Bombers. Of further concern for Essendon is that their defence, while solid at the start of the season, has conceded 125 points a game in its last four fixtures.
The Bombers continue to try and monopolise the ball, ranking second in uncontested disposals per game, second in disposals per game and first in marks per game. The gameplan has had its issues, as opponents rank first in disposals, marks and uncontested disposals per game.
The Eagles’ performances against the bottom sides are summed up by forwards Mark LeCras and Josh Kennedy. LeCras has kicked 20 of his 23 goals and Kennedy 36 of his 46 goals against bottom ten sides.
Best Bet: West Coast 40+ points @ $1.15
Feeling Lucky: West Coast -71.5 points @ $1.91
Port Adelaide versus Richmond´
Port Adelaide entered 2016 full of hope and eyeing a soft draw as the ticket to a finals berth. Quite unexpectedly they enter Friday night’s clash against Richmond with their season on the line.
The Power lost to the Fremantle Dockers before having their bye last weekend and have made a habit of losing games they should win. Their opponents on Friday night enter the game having won five of their last six games and look to be making their annual mid-season rally under Damian Hardwick following an awful start to the season.
Richmond’s resurgence has coincided with a softer part of the draw as four of their wins have been against the bottom four teams on the ladder.
As they usually do, they have relied on the brilliance and consistency of Brett Deledio, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin. The latter is shaping as a Brownlow fancy and is having his best season, and will be full of confidence as he averages 28 possessions and a goal in the last five games against Port Adelaide.
This game may well be won in the middle – the Power rank last in opponent clearances per game and 15th in clearance differential; while the Tigers are a middle of the road team in this category.
With their midfield in far better form, Richmond will look to stretch an undermanned Port defence with Ty Vickery, Ben Griffiths and Jack Riewoldt likely to line up in a tall forward line.
Best Bet: Richmond +36.5 points @ $1.32
Feeling Lucky: Richmond +16.5 points @ $1.92
Gold Coast versus St Kilda
The Gold Coast Suns come into Saturday’s clash with St Kilda on a ten-game losing streak and up against a team full of confidence after upsetting the previously top-of-the-ladder Geelong Cats last weekend.
Despite playing some exciting football, however, St Kilda’s confidence will be tempered by the fact they have been horrid interstate this season, losing their four games by an average of more than 57 points.
Each side has a superstar and for different reasons both will expect to deliver in this game. Saints captain Nick Riewoldt has averaged more than ten marks and three goals per game in his last five games against the Suns, while Gold Coast skipper Gary Ablett tallied 40 disposals in the loss to Hawthorn last weekend, of which 25 were contested.
Despite being well below his best in 2016, Ablett ranks third in clearances per game, 18th in disposals per game, 13th in contested possessions per game and 12th in tackles per game – results with which a mere mortal would be very happy.
Both the Saints and Suns rank in the bottom half of the league in uncontested and contested possession differential and the bottom five in clearance differential, meaning something has to give. When you add the fact that they rank first and second in clanger differential the game could be decided by who has the better forward line performances.
Enter Tom Lynch, who has been in a slight slump but kicked four goals against Hawthorn and has kicked four or more goals on seven occasions in 2016, with five of those games being at home.
Best Bet: St Kilda +30.5 points @ $1.22
Feeling Lucky: Gold Coast by 1-39 points @ $2.40
Sydney versus Western Bulldogs
Saturday twilight in Sydney sees what should be an absolute cracker of a contest between the Swans and Western Bulldogs. Just one game separates these sides who lie second and seventh on the ladder.
The Bulldogs rank first and the Swans second in contested possession differential, while the Dogs also rank first in clearance differential and are on record pace in leading the league in uncontested possessions.
However these impressive statistics haven’t translated to success against fellow top eight sides as they rank just tenth in points scored per game and seventh in inside 50s per game.
Both sides are outstanding defensively, ranked first and second in least points conceded and second (Dogs) and fourth (Swans) in inside 50 differential. Sydney’s dominance at home figures to be a huge factor; they have won all six games at the SCG this season, including three against fellow top eight opposition.
Player availability figures to be crucial. The Swans are without Kurt Tippett and Sam Reid but otherwise are at close to full strength. The Bulldogs will be sweating on the availability of Koby Stevens, Easton Wood and Jason Johannisen as they are working their way towards full strength following a horror run of injuries to key players.
The Dogs won the corresponding clash in thrilling fashion last season, but the Swans have dominated the recent match-ups between the two, winning the previous five clashes.
Best Bet: Either by less than 40 points @ $1.35
Feeling Lucky: Sydney 1-39 points @ $2.10
Carlton versus Collingwood
Two of the code’s oldest and most traditional rivals clash on Saturday night at the MCG as Carlton and Collingwood renew hostilities just seven weeks removed from their last game, won by the Blues by 15 points.
The Pies are coming off playing in front of their lowest MCG crowd in 70 years as they comfortably defeated Fremantle, while Carlton were competitive and gallant before being overpowered by the GWS Giants juggernaut at Skoda Stadium.
The Pies are still dealing with a crippling injury list with up to seven first choice players unavailable while the Blues are reasonably well placed and will enter this game full of confidence and with a majority of their list available, captain Marc Murphy being the clear exception.
In Murphy’s absence, Bryce Gibbs has continued his long overdue progression towards being an elite midfielder as he has tallied near career-best disposal and tackle statistics and dominated the Round 7 match-up with 30 disposals and three goals.
Collingwood dominated all aspects of the game against the Dockers but rank just tenth in contested disposal differential and 14th in uncontested disposal differential and have struggled to impact the scoreboard, ranking just 13th in points scored per game.
These weaknesses may not be exposed by a Blues team that scores even less than the Magpies and has slipped defensively in its last four or five games after being outstanding in this area earlier in the season.
Best Bet: Carlton +24.5 points @ $1.28
Feeling Lucky: Carlton H2H @ $2.05
Melbourne versus Adelaide
The MCG is the scene for what promises to be the most entertaining game of Round 15 as the Melbourne Demons and Adelaide Crows clash on Sunday afternoon.
Melbourne come into this game fresh off the bye and having smashed Collingwood on the Queen’s Birthday while Adelaide dominated North Melbourne in all aspects other than the scoreboard and have won five straight games.
Adelaide have played five games against teams within the bottom ten and won all of them, while the Demons have won just one of their four games against top eight opposition and will need to reverse that trend to keep their slim top eight hopes alive.
Their biggest challenge will be stopping a potent Crows forward line that ranks first in the league in goals scored and features Eddie Betts, Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins and Tom Lynch. The Demons rank 12th in points conceded, while at the other end of the ground the perennially underrated Daniel Talia is a great match-up for Melbourne wunderkind Jesse Hogan.
The midfield contest has quality at every turn; they rank fifth (Melbourne) and sixth (Adelaide) in contested possessions per game, third (Adelaide) and fifth (Melbourne) in uncontested possessions per game and third (Melbourne) and fifth (Adelaide) in clearances per game.
This game features arguably the two best ruckmen in the competition in Max Gawn and Sam Jacobs. If either big man can establish dominance it will go a long way towards their team coming out on top.
Best Bet: Melbourne +42.5 points @ $1.29
Feeling Lucky: Adelaide 1-39 points @ $2.20
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