Port Adelaide most likely hosts a broken, beaten Richmond, in a game that looks a little closer than the market would have you believe. They may not make the eight, but the Power are still playing good football.
Port Adelaide are three wins and around 30 percentage points back from eighth spot, with the West Coast Eagles having already completed their Round 15 match.
It is a near-impossible gap to make up, without some kind of cataclysmic event at Subiaco Oval, or the transformation of the Power into a team of high-scoring demi-gods.
Neither of those things are likely – how awesome would it be to watch Robbie Gray kick four goals on 30 possessions per week though?
In saying that, the Power have re-emerged as a team vaguely resembling the one that monstered the competition in 2013 and the first half of 2014.
Port Adelaide are sitting sixth on the season-long Offensive Efficiency Rating ladder, and are fifth or fourth in recent weeks depending on where you want to draw the ‘recent’ line. Port have lost three close games in their past six, with two of those losses coming against the Eagles and Dogs.
The Power are getting excellent production from a number of their lesser lights. Jasper Pittard has cured himself of his clanger tendencies – mostly – and is leading the league in metres gained per game. He’s on the short list for a hypothetical Most Improved Player award.
Rookie Darcy Byrne-Jones is a rapidly emerging small defender, Jarman Impey might be more than a flakey small forward, and Jack Hombsch, when he’s played, has held together the Power’s diminished defensive unit remarkably well for a 23-year-old.
They’re doing this despite owning the worst time in possession differential in the league at minus eight minutes per game. The Power are in possession of the ball for just 37 per cent of the game on average, compared to a league average of 41.3 per cent, and the best in show Giants at 44 per cent.
That’s quite phenomenal.
When we adjust for this, the Power are actually the second most lethal scoring side with the ball in hand, kicking 16 per cent more points per minute of possession than the league average – second behind the thrash and bash Adelaide Crows.
Here are the rest of the league’s figures through Round 13.
| Team | Points per game | Minutes-adjusted +/- |
| Adelaide | 113.5 | +19.9% |
| Port Adelaide | 98.0 | +15.8% |
| Hawthorn | 102.2 | +12.9% |
| WCE | 102.2 | +11.2% |
| Greater Western Sydney | 108.2 | +9.3% |
| Geelong | 104.1 | +8.5% |
| Sydney | 97.5 | +5.8% |
| Melbourne | 96.4 | +5.2% |
| North Melbourne | 99.1 | +2.9% |
| Collingwood | 83.4 | -1.0% |
| StKilda | 85.2 | -3.4% |
| Fremantle | 81.0 | -5.2% |
| Western Bulldogs | 88.2 | -6.1% |
| Gold Coast | 81.4 | -8.9% |
| Richmond | 85.8 | -9.2% |
| Brisbane Lions | 76.8 | -14.1% |
| Carlton | 75.8 | -18.9% |
| Essendon | 60.5 | -29.0% |
Peak Port Adelaide were known for their slingshotting prowess, and that is what’s given them a leg up in recent times. Ken Hinkley has backed in his system, and with a sprinkle of extra effort on the part of his players, it’s seen them escape the league’s basement.
But the ceiling looks to be ninth this season, which as we’ve discussed on a few occasions might be disappointing, but is not a disaster. The Power have been hit hard by absenteeism this year – Jack Trengove is playing as their lone ruckman for crying out loud – and still have a very young list on average. The emergence of a number of guys sub-24 should have Port fans excited about the future.
And then there’s Richmond, who seem stuck between a rock and a hard place; I don’t mean ninth and 18th, although that might be an apt summary.
The Tigers appear a team struggling with a split personality disorder. Cam Rose put it best a few weeks ago: Richmond have some of the best players in the competition but seem pathologically intent on playing like a side that must get even contributions across the 18 guys on the field.
Geelong have shown what putting the power in the hands of an elite few can do this season, not that a duo made up of Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin or Brett Deledio are as good as Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield.
…or are they? The gap isn’t as large as it appears at face value, which is what makes Richmond’s situation so puzzling.
A lot of the talk in recent weeks has been the notion that Richmond need a rebuild to return to finals. That’s a quaint notion, but it is somewhat off base. The Tigers’ biggest problem is that they have tried to ride a wave of recycled players, forsaking some youth along the way. Now that most of the recycled players are passing their peaks, the more raw youngsters are being exposed.
That, and injuries. The 2016 season will be remembered for the increased role that rebounding half-back flankers have played, and the Tigers have been missing their two first choice gunners, Chris Yarran and Bachar Houli, for all and much of the year, respectively. Brandon Ellis has been asked to play a role that he’s not suited to, and Nick Vlaustin has, inexplicably, earned 70 per cent of his touches in the back half of the ground this year.
The Tigers have made their share of unforced errors, but there’s been some bad luck along the way too.
Like yesterday’s Thursday Night Forecast, there’s still some interesting things to watch out for in this game, even though it is to be played for pride and pride alone.
Dustin Martin is putting in a decent case to be awarded a Matt Priddis-2014-style Brownlow medal, and is blossoming into the blunt force trauma instrument of destruction that I saw when anointing him as the sixth-best player in the competition earlier in the year.
Alex Rance and Charlie Dixon is a match-up made in heaven – Channel Seven, please tell your cameramen that we want some wide shots of this one, please – while down the other end the two Jacks (Hombsch and Riewoldt) should be a similarly tantalising duel.
This is also the scene of the 2014 elimination final, when the Power bludgeoned the Tigers to death with an eight goal to one opening quarter to start – and finish – the game. Richmond won a scrappy affair between the two last season, in the game that effectively burst the Port Adelaide bubble that began to inflate two years prior.
I can see a close game evolving here, particularly if the Power completely abdicate their responsibilities as professional footballers in the manner they did against Fremantle prior to their bye. That game effectively ended their 2016 season – 2017 arguably begins now for both sides.
Complicating matters is that the Tigers are playing this game off a six-day break, are travelling, and play Port off of their bye. It is almost a repeat of last Friday’s settings, albeit the Tigers haven’t had consecutive six-day breaks. The bye inequality might be a factor, but I suspect travelling on a six-day break matters more.
When we add that to the mix, this is a reasonably clear win to the Power, by around about five goals. I’m certain, though, that tonight’s game will be a much greater spectacle than the tyre fire we witnessed last night. That’s my Friday Night Forecast, what’s yours?
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