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Eight glorious games grace our screens this weekend, and littered among them are four genuine head-scratchers that could make for a difficult week of tipping.
But you can rest easy given the recent form of this column having picked up 21 of the past 26 tips – here’s hoping for a full round as the NRL business end heats up!
Last week’s tips: six from seven, running tip total 76/118
Roosters versus Bulldogs
The poor old Chooks continue to struggle. It’s crazy to think that the lowest form teams on the ladder, apart from the Knights, have typically been vying for the top four in the last five years.
The Roosters will be better for having the bye last week, at the very least it allows for the return of State of Origin stars Blake Ferguson and Aiden Guerra and their halfback Mitchell Pearce.
On paper, the Roosters have a genuine top-eight team this week but given that nothing is clicking their attitude is the key determinant.
The Dogs were terrific against the Broncos despite Brisbane producing an incredibly underwhelming 80 minutes of football. Greg Eastwood and Raymond Faitala-Mariner return for the Belmore boys which makes their enormous pack even more intimidating.
It’s no secret the Dogs will attempt to bully their opposition for a victory – the one-two punch of Sam Kasiano and Tony Williams (I know right?!) off the bench last week drove the nail in the Broncos’ Round 16 coffin.
The Roosters typically turn up to play against the Bulldogs and hold a seven to five advantage in the clubs’ last 12 encounters. This one will be closer than expected.
Tip: Dogs 1-12
Broncos versus Storm
Enter head-scratcher number one. The Broncos were dreadful against the Bulldogs – quite simply they looked in a world of fatigue with several stars backing up from Origin.
They should be raring to go in this game with a six-day turnaround, though, and at home at Suncorp. This will actually be the second time this season the Broncos have played the Storm at home (yep, the NRL draw is just that good…) with Melbourne producing a brilliant display to win 15-8.
For the Broncos the return of Alex Glenn, hooker Andrew McCullough and a starting role for Kodi Nikorima in the centres should give them plenty of additional fire power.
The Storm just keep rolling on. They sit second on the ladder two points shy of the Sharks but with a four-point buffer between themselves and the Cowboys, all despite a plethora of injury concerns.
Compounding those injury concerns is a knee injury to damaging prop Nelson Asofa-Solomona while Blake Green and Cameron Munster are still nowhere to be seen.
With the Broncos needing to address an alarming form slide, the ponies playing at home, the Storm suffering injuries and nearly giving up a 26-point lead to the Tigers last week, I’m leaning towards the Broncos in a tight affair.
Tip: Broncos 1-12
Warriors versus Titans
This match is head-scratcher number two. The Warriors have been in reasonably good form of late. More so for pushing the Sharks for the full 80 last week as opposed to their three consecutive victories prior to Round 16 (defeating the Roosters, Knights and an Origin-affected Broncos).
As always this match will come down to attitude for the Warriors as they certainly have the talent in their side to defeat anybody on their day. Fortunately over the last few weeks, it appears coach Andrew McFadden has loosened the reigns and encouraged more adlib football that suits his roster. Expect the Warriors to throw it around in this one.
The Titans have won four of their past six matches – a real credit to this underdog team. They have suffered a significant blow however with promising centre Nathan Davis all but ruled out for the season. He will be replaced by Chris McQueen.
If the Titans are to win in this game they are going to have to throw caution to the wind. They are outsized in the forwards and outpaced in the backline but halves combo Ash Taylor and Tyrone Roberts have proved they can conjure some magic when in need and this is the game for it.
Tip: Warriors 1-12
Tigers versus Panthers
Enter head-scratcher number three. The Tigers took their hot and cold form to a whole new level last week against the Storm. Instead of match-to-match discrepancies we saw two completely different teams in the first and second half respectively.
If the Tigers play like they did in the second 40 for the full 80, they will beat literally every team in this competition. With Robbie Farah back on deck the excellent Elijah Taylor will be allowed to thrive in his roving lock forward role. Taylor should have further motivation in this match coming up against the club that unceremoniously dumped him to reserve grade this season.
Much like the Tigers, the Panthers are a very creative team and that also causes them to go through hot and cold patches. The halves combination serves as a microcosm.
Nathan Cleary and Bryce Cartwright are two players with enormous potential. By the same token they, or more specifically Cartwright, can sometimes be a tad overzealous. He will create chances but can also gift opportunities for his opposition.
With that said the winner of this match will likely be decided not on creativity but on controlled discipline. Whichever team enjoys the higher completion rate will win this game given the undeniable attacking prowess they both possess.
Penrith have won the past two clashes against Wests Tigers but prior to that the Tigers had won six straight.
Tip: Tigers 1-12
Sharks versus Eels
The shire boys continue to sing “Up, up, Cronulla” and will soon be getting hoarse. Having just secured a record-tying 11th straight victory they are likely to break that record this week with a home fixture against a club embroiled in turmoil.
There’s not a great deal to say about the Sharks – they are strong across the park and are able to create opportunities from anywhere while their defence has remained resolute. More of the same will secure two points.
For the Eels the less said the better, at least regarding their off-field matters. A bye was perhaps the worst thing that could happen to the club over the last week – instead of a football focus the players have had time off to sit back and reflect, or in the case of Kieran Foran and Semi Radradra help destroy what little credibility the club retains. The loss of several key forwards should mean this is a bridge too far for Parramatta.
Tip: Sharks 13+
Raiders versus Knights
The Raiders are emerging as a genuine premiership dark horse. They do enough to win most matches and when things truly click they are a frightening proposition.
All signs point to an absolute slaughter in this match – one that could rival their Round 6, 60-6 violation of the Tigers. Ricky Stuart has once again named a tremendous squad and I can’t recall a larger betting discrepancy in some time with the Raiders named at $1.07 compared to the Knights $9.50,
I would be surprised if Newcastle’s price remains inside the $10 mark by kick off.
I will make this short for the Knights. No. Try again next week and potentially try again next season for your next win. A mix of rookies resembling deer in headlights and woefully out of form marquee men such as Trent Hodkinson will mean defeat.
Despite having secured one of their three competition points (that were not offered via the bye) against the Raiders in Round 3, that is more likely the amount of points they will post in the 80 minutes.
Tip: Raiders 13+
Souths versus Cowboys
Like an old car that clunks along and crunches every time you change gears, eventually they will arrive at a desired location. But more often then not you’re just wishing a raise would come your way so you could trade it in.
That’s Souths’ 2016 season to date – nothing is working quite as fans would hope. The return of Adam Reynolds is a welcome boost and Cody Walker has been their best player this season (and will go close to winning rookie of the season in the Dally M awards) but you can expect another unspectacular showing from the red and green.
Despite this being listed as a home match, Barlow Park is squarely in Queensland which should further favour the Cowboys.
The Cowboys keep on rolling. Despite losing Michael Morgan for this clash they have a tremendous replacement in 100-game playmaker Ray Thompson.
A big forward pack and the class of Johnathan Thurston, Lachlan Coote and Jake Granville will ensure a victory here for North Queensland.
Tip: Cowboys 13+
Manly versus Dragons
The final game of the round is also the fourth and final head-scratcher for Round 17. A lot of readers are probably quite confused as to why this match should be a difficult one to pick – after all, Manly are in the midst of a seven-game losing streak.
But with some positional changes including Jamie Lyon being shifted to five-eighth and Dylan Walker out to the centres, Tom Trbojevic shifted closer to the action as a centre and an improved forward performance in their last loss against the Cowboys could change things. At home at former fortress Brookvale Oval, this is the game to end their slide.
The Dragons are chasing three consecutive victories in this match. Don’t let that stat fool you, though. They were unconvincing against the Knights last week and defeated a Storm side missing a number of stars.
It should come as no surprise but defence will be the key to a Dragons victory in this clash. Benji Marshall had a field day against the Knights last week but he and his teammates are likely to find proceedings far more difficult here.
These clubs have a 3-3 record in their past six clashes.
Tip: Manly 1-12
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