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With the bye rounds behind us, I thought it would be a good time to have a deeper look at how the top eight teams have performed against each other and see what each team has been doing well and not so well compared to their opponents.
First up I decided to do a quick breakdown of the top eight against their fellow contenders. In the table below winning records are coloured green, break even records are yellow, and losing records are red.
Geelong is the clear front runner and would sit two games clear if we made a ladder based on just these games. If GWS earn the right to home finals (and the AFL does not screw them by changing venues) they will have a strong home ground advantage, however they have yet to prove they can win away. Adelaide’s record also shows they will likely need to push up the ladder and earn some home finals if they want to play deep into finals. While the Kangeroos overall record against contenders is in the red to this point, they do have five ‘eight point’ games remaining, so their destiny is in their own hands.
While winning and losing is certainly the most important aspect to look it, it’s not the whole story. Margins can often show us who is winning comfortably and who might be benefiting from a bit of luck going their way.
The thing that jumps out is West Coast’s failure to win a game against a contender so far this season. The Eagles have four games remaining against contenders so they have a chance to right their record but considering they are losing by an average, in excess of, five goals a game, I do not see it happening.
The best teams generally win big while losing small. Hawthorn this season so far has been doing the opposite; winning by about two and a half goals a game and losing by roughly six-and-a-half goals a game. Can they continue to afford the big losses while squeezing home narrowly?
The Bulldogs and North Melbourne have the smallest average winning margins, with neither winning a game against a contender by three or more goals. Will both their lists getting healthier will they put a contender to the sword in the last part of the season?
Too often in the media these days we have commentators pick out a single statistic and attempt to base everything off it. It’s lazy and flawed. There is more than one way to win a game of footy. Every team has different key indicators that are important to the way they play.
What I have done in the following table is picked ten of the most common, and available (#freethestats), stats and ranked each team from 1 (best) to 18 (worst) based on average differential compared to their opponent. Teams in green are ranked in the top four, yellow are ranked 5th–8th, orange are 9th–13th, and red rankings are the worst five teams in a particular stat.
*All rankings taken prior to completion of the Adelaide vs Melbourne game
NOTE: If there is a stat you feel should have been included in this table, please let me know in the comments below. I will ask The Roar Editors to amend the table if your argument is persuasive (and the stat is available #freethestats).
Again, Geelong and GWS are at the top with both being inside the top eight in all ten statistics. Sydney very nearly joining them, just being outside the top eight in hitouts. Bulldogs are interesting because what they are good at they are nearly always the best at, leading the way in five categories and coming second in a sixth. North Melbourne only excels at one stat, but avoids being bottom five in any, while Hawthorn is bottom five in four statistical rankings.
In order to provide some sort of summary of all those numbers, I simply added them all up and then ranked teams lowest to highest. This is my overall statistical differential ranking ladder.
| Total | Overall ranking | |
| Geelong | 29 | 1st |
| GWS | 39 | 2nd |
| Western | 52 | 3rd |
| Sydney | 55 | 4th |
| Adelaide | 63 | 5th |
| North Melbourne | 84 | 6th |
| West Coast | 85 | 7th |
| Hawthorn | 103 | 8th |
Do any of these numbers tell us anything? Do they prove who will win and who will not? Probably not, but being a ‘numbers guy’ I enjoyed compiling them and hey, I had no idea my team would end up on top at the end, bonus!
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