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Thursday night footy continues on, the third of four consecutive games in this timeslot that most people probably want more of, but are unsure exactly how and how often they should be structured.
Hit us up in the comments if you’ve got some strong thoughts on the topic.
One thing we should be almost certain of, is that we’re going to get a better contest than last week’s West Coast versus Essendon encounter. Port are often fun to watch, and many will tune in wanting to see the mighty Hawks fall.
Port will rightly come into this match with confidence, given they beat the Hawks twice last year, and have actually won three of the last four matches between the teams. In fact, Hawthorn haven’t beaten Port in a home-and-away match since 2013.
A feature of Port’s victories over Hawthorn has been the fast starts, and they’ve held the quarter time lead in each of their last four meetings.
Last year in Round 21, the Power were 24 points up halfway through the second quarter after kicking four goals in a row, before winning by almost exactly that margin.
In Round 4 they ran up a monstrous 58 point margin by halfway through the second term after kicking the first seven goals and 11 of the first 12. Hawthorn came surging right back but fell short in one of the most memorable games of 2015.
Much has been made of Alastair Clarkson’s comments yesterday, where he stated “They’ve (Port) ambushed us a little bit with their physicality and their starts to games” and “Port Adelaide are yet to prove that they can do that (play tough, hard footy) on a week-to-week basis.”
Ken Hinkley wasn’t too fussed about what Clarkson said, because he acknowledged that it was nothing more than a fundamental truth. But there is no doubt Clarkson was sending his players a message to not get beaten early, and Hinkley’s men know they’ll have to respond.
Port have no problem winning the hard ball, and this has been a weakness of Hawthorn’s this season. The question is, if they do gain dominance on the inside and around the clearances through Travis Boak, Ollie Wines, Robbie Gray and Brad Ebert, can they capitalise on the scoreboard? With Charlie Dixon, Jay Schulz, Justin Westhoff, Chad Wingard and Aaron Young up forward, the Power have a potent mix of talls and smalls for the Hawks to defend.
I wrote about why I think the Hawks are not a threat for this year’s premiership a few weeks ago. They have struggled to move the ball as well as in their premiership years, which is the most marked sign of their decline. They’re winning far less of the ball, and not being as damaging with it.
Add to this an inability to play four consistent quarters of football in any one game, and Port has an opening they can exploit if they can harness the periods of momentum they usually have in games.
The Power have kicked at least four unanswered goals in a row at some stage in each of their last six matches, but will need to defend hard the other way. The Hawks are still capable of scoring quickly through Luke Breust, Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo, who have been match-winners this year with their pressure and finishing skills.
Port have been in reasonable form for a six-week period, with a loss to Fremantle in that time their poorest performance. They pushed West Coast and the Western Bulldogs in going down by single figure margins, but are yet to claim a top eight scalp this season.
I think the Power are going to claim that scalp tonight, and send the Hawks tumbling out of the top four, back to the pack where they belong this year. They may not claim that place back either.
That’s my Thursday night forecast. What’s yours?