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Earlier this season I made the call that it was a two-horse race for the 2016 NRL title: either the Broncos or Cowboys were certainties.
What a kiss of death that was for the Broncos.
I made that call after they had jumped out to a record of seven wins and one loss over the first eight rounds. However, since that point they have lost six of their next eight games.
Over the first eight rounds their average match score was 27-10 in their favour. Over their following eight games it has flipped to be 19-27 against them.
Further, their stats that were so good back at the end of Round 8 have fallen away badly.
| After round 8 | After round 17 | |
| Points differential per game | +17 | +5 |
| Tries scored | 2nd | 6th |
| Line breaks | 1st | 4th |
| Metres Gained | 3rd | 7th |
| Metres conceded | 3rd | 10th |
| Missed tackles | 2nd | 6th |
| Line breaks conceded | 2nd | 7th |
| Tries conceded | 1st | 6th |
| Players averaging 100 metres+ | six | four |
| Hunt and Milford combined Line break and try assists | 11 and 14 | 24 and 15 |
| Ladder position | 1st | 7th |
Broncos mentor Wayne Bennett has full confidence that his side will bounce back but I’m no longer sure.
These stats show a side in freefall.
Their sensational points differential per game of +17 has plummeted to just +5. While they scored 36 tries in the first eight rounds, that has decreased to 27 in the following eight.
That is a drop of just over one try a game. While Hunt and Milford’s line break assists have continued apace in the last eight rounds, they have shared just one try assist over the same period. Even with Alfie constantly telling them what to do, the wheels seem to have fallen off the playmaking duo.
However, the big damage has clearly been in their defence. Their tries conceded have rocketed. After eight rounds they had conceded an amazingly low 13 tries at just 1.6 a game. However, in the next eight rounds they have conceded 37 tries at 4.6 a game. That’s Manly bad.
The absence of Andrew McCullogh in the centre of their defence has played no small part in this defensive malaise. His departure with a knee injury in Round 8 coincided exactly with the start of the rot. However, his return match against the Storm was the Broncos worst defeat at home ever and their worst defeat since their 56-0 flogging at the hands of the Raiders in round 21 2009.
The Broncos got torn apart by a Storm side that was missing Cam Munster, Tim Glasby and Will Chambers. In the centres they featured two players in Cheyse Blair and Ryan Morgan who aren’t renowned defenders.
In fact Blair and Morgan are yet more examples of Craig Bellamy successfully recycling meat and potato players. Further, Tohu Harris and Jordan McLean were injured during the match. The Broncos were only missing Jack Reed, Sam Thaiday and Jordan Kahu, and lost Corey Oates during the game.
While the mauling at the hands of the Storm is by far the worst loss for the Broncos this year, there is no question the boys from Red Hill are in a bad slump.
There has been talk by Coach Wayne Bennett that the Origin schedule is unfair, suggesting that the slump is partly as a result of the Broncos heavy contribution to the Queensland side.
However, this argument doesn’t hold any water whatsoever.
Since 1991 the Broncos have only missed the finals two times – in 2010 and 2013. Those two years also saw the lowest Broncos player involvement in Origin ever, with just three and four players taking part respectively.
Further, over all of the seasons that State of Origin has run, players from each season’s Premiers have contributed 12.3 per cent of all the Origin players. When you include the runners up that percentage rises to a massive 22 per cent. The message is clear: the more players you have that play State of Origin in any year the more likely your side is to win the title that season.
The Broncos contingent of six this year is only matched by the Cowboys. So that would seem to indicate that they are well placed to challenge this season.
However, there are a number of other statistics that show that the Broncos Premiership credentials in 2016 are pretty tarnished.
Firstly, if you look at all of the seasons since 1988 when the Broncos entered the competition, on only three of 27 occasions has the eventual premier finished the Origin period with fewer wins than losses: The Raiders in 1989, The Storm in 1999 and the Knights in 2001.
Genuine contenders don’t struggle during the Origin period. The Broncos will exit the period with four losses and just one victory. The Sharks will have at least four wins, the Cowboys three and the Storm four.
Secondly, if the Broncos do triumph this season they will do it with the equal worst loss during the season of any Premier since their entry in 1988. The only mirror for their 42-point flogging at the hands of the Storm is the Bulldogs 42-0 loss to the Knights in their 1995 Premiership season. Prospective premiers simply don’t lose games that badly. That Dogs side was also the last one to win the title from outside the top four. Presently the Broncos sit in seventh place, well away from the double chance.
Since 1988 no premier has lost more than ten games en route to the title. The average losses in a season for a premier is 6.6. The Broncos have already lost seven and have eight games remaining, including the Bulldogs at home and the Storm away.
The Broncos points differential is just +79 presently. The average points differential for a Premier over the last 27 seasons is +225. To achieve this mark the Broncos would have to win their remaining matches by an average margin of 23 points.
With the potential attacking strike power they have, that is actually possible. However, blocking their way to claiming their first title since 2006 are a Cowboys side oozing with danger, a Storm side that knows how to win big games and is starting to look 2012 menacing, and a Sharks side that look so damn good that I’m starting to believe the fairy tale.
While I’m not going to write the Broncos off yet, they’ve sure got a mountain to climb and they better start climbing soon.