The first day in the Pyrenees will be a crucial test for the general classification men, and it will set the tone for the following two days.
The 162.5 kilometre trek from L’Isle-Jourdain to the hilltop finish at Lac de Payolle is the easiest of the three days in the Pyrenees, however, it contains a very tricky final 30 kilometres, where the general classification favourites will need to be attentive.
The first 105 kilometres of the stage before the peloton hit the town of Tournay are fairly flat, with a few lumps and bumps around 50 kilometres completed, but for the majority, it’s should be an easy first two and a half hours to the stage.
Shortly after this point though, the riders will start the first of two climbs on the stage today, with the category four climb of the Côte de Capvern. At 7.7 kilometres at just over three per cent, it will be a nice warm-up for the peloton before they hit the slopes of the major difficulty of the day, the first category climb of the Col D’Aspin.
Before then though is the intermediate sprint point at 25 kilometres to go in the town of Sarrancolin. Depending on the size of the break, Sagan could pick up a few points, especially as some of the sprinters may have already been dropped.
It is also not out of the question for Sagan to get into the break to secure maximum points at the intermediate sprint, something which he has done on occasion in each of his previous four Green jersey wins.
The Col d’Aspin starts at 19 kilometres to go, and is a solid first major mountain of the Tour. However, l should not be decisive. At 12 kilometres at 6.5 per cent, the climb is of an easy gradient for the major climbers, which should mean that we get a group of at least 10-15 riders at the summit of the final climb.
However, with a very well rested Tem Sky and Movistar, we could see one of these teams try to lay down the hammer to test the top contenders to see if they are up to the challenge.
One man who I think will struggle is Alberto Contador, who having already crashed twice this tour, lost 40 seconds on his general classification riders on the hilly Stage 5. He will look to limit his losses in the Pyrenees in the hop to recover before the Alps at the back end of the race.
The summit of the Col d’Aspin is crested with seven kilometres to go, and a technical, tight descent into the final two kilometres before an uphill finish in Lac de Payolle.
The first three kilometres of the descent are fairly flowing, however, at the bottom of the descent there are 4 switchbacks which will be important for the fast descenders to get a slight break before the final two kilometre rise to the line.
This is a finish that perfectly suits both Alejandro Valverde and Daniel Martin, with solid descending ability, and a punchy finish which should put them above all their rivals in the final.
I do not expect Froome or Quintana to attack today, but you never know.
Other riders to look out for today include Fabio Aru (Astana), Romain Bardet (AG2R LA Mondiale), Wilco Kelderman (Lotto NL Jumbo), Bauke Mollema (Trek Segafredo), Pierre Roland (Cannondale-Drapac), Richie Porte and Tejay Van Gardaren (BMC), Warren Barguill (Giant-Alpecin), Thibaut Pinot (FDJ), and Adam Yates (Orica Bike-Exchange).
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