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Now we’re getting serious. Two rounds of the Super Rugby season left to run, and still plenty of permutations left to play out before the finalists can be finally confirmed and their finishing order decided.
For all the all debate about the pros and cons of the new 18-team format – debate that continues to this date, undoubtedly – one point remains undeniable. The best teams, whoever they are, will get through to the playoffs, and you can’t ask much from a competition than that.
Here are the talking points for Round 16.
The wild, wild boys from the west on tour
An interesting little tidbit emerged from the Western Force team announcement yesterday: it seems a few of the lads got a bit loose in Bloemfontein last weekend.
Whichever part of that statement you’re finding more difficult to swallow, the fact remains that winger Luke Morahan – who himself has just re-signed for 2017 with the Perth-based club – will captain the side this weekend.
“Luke Morahan will captain the side after Pek Cowan and Dane Haylett-Petty were deemed to have breached the club’s leadership standards while on tour in South Africa,” the club statement said yesterday.
News Limited’s Jamie Pandaram broke the news, and the summary of events is this: curfews were breached, arguments were had, brothers wrestled, a vase was broken, a bill was paid, sanctions were handed down, and a new captain appointed.
Matt Hodgson is reported to have blown up deluxe at training on Wednesday, pointing fingers and apportioning blame, and as a result, I’d imagine the fallout might continue for some time.
But what does it mean for this weekend? The Stormers should be worried, really worried. Nothing fuels performance like damaged reputations and clubs in crisis, and after letting the down pretty consistently all season, I’d imagine the team wouldn’t be game to put in another sub-par display in front of the Perth faithful.
Four teams, separated by just three points
I’m very happy to be corrected on this, but I cannot recall a Super Rugby season in which so many teams from one country have been separated by so few points so deep in the season.
The Chiefs sit atop the New Zealand conference on 46 points, but behind them in the three trans-Tasman wildcard spots sit the Crusaders on 45, the Hurricanes on 44, and the Highlanders on 43.
Will they remain this close after the weekend? Maybe. Maybe not. They could actually finish the weekend tighter again, but a couple of upsets could open up some gaps, too.
Many a confident prediction has been made in recent weeks about four New Zealand teams making the playoffs, and the really confident one have gone as far as saying four New Zealand teams will face off in the semi-finals.
So here’s the uncomfortable question. How many of you Kiwis are actually worried that four won’t get through?
And for those of you who admit you’ve contemplated the thought, which team do you think is the most at risk?
I’ll be really interested in the responses to those two questions. If you remain confident that four teams will get through, then I probably don’t need to hear from you, and good luck in your predictions.
But if you are genuinely worried, I’ll be really interested to hear who you’re worried about and why.
Any Brumbies’ complacency should be shattered by history
The very mention of the Blues and finals in the same sentence is enough to send a shudder down the average Brumbies fan’s spine. Over the history of the Super Rugby, the Blues have had a terrible habit of ruining the Brumbies’ season, both in and around the playoffs.
It goes right back to the 1997 final, in which the Blues gave the Brumbies – who at that stage were still being seen as the upstarts of Australian rugby – a bit of a towelling in Auckland. It was repeated in the 2003 semi, and again, famously so, in the final round of the 2012 season, when just a losing bonus point would’ve been enough for the Brumbies to qualify. They couldn’t manage even that, and the Blues mustered nine points in the last two rounds of what had been an otherwise ordinary season.
Plenty of this current Brumbies playing group were part of that 2012 loss, and Stephen Larkham himself was part of the group toppled by the Blues in 2003 and 1997.
So the message should be clear this week: underestimate the Blues at your peril. If the expected wet weather eventuates in Auckland, then the Brumbies’ territory and set piece game will serve them well. But they cannot let the Blues get out to a lead, because it’s when the Brumbies find themselves chasing a game that they come undone. That was the Hurricanes’ exact gameplan in the semi-final last season, and you just know that ‘score first’ and ‘score again’ has featured prominently on opposition whiteboards this season.
And so should it feature prominently on the Brumbies’ whiteboard at Eden Park tonight. Their playoff berth might just depend on it.
Who will be the third South African side?
It’s not just a sub-heading, it’s a serious question. Yes, the answer is probably either the Sharks or the Bulls, unless you want to get really funky and outline how the answer could seriously be the Stormers. Which it could very well be.
But if it is going to be the Bulls or the Sharks, then you’d hope one of the two teams finds some form soon.
Both sides were comprehensively outplayed last weekend, with the big difference being that the team trouncing the Sharks were at the opposite end of the table to the team trouncing the Bulls.
This weekend, both are home to bottom-third teams, with the Bulls hosting the Sunwolves’ first ever game at Loftus Versfeld, and the Sharks then playing the Cheetahs at Kings Park.
You could probably write your own ticket to back the Sunwolves, but would it be such a surprise to see the Cheetahs cause a boilover? South African derbies can be just as dour as Australian games, but at least the Cheetahs are looking to play rugby, which is a bit more than can be said for the Sharks at the moment.
Next weekend, the Cheetahs host the Bulls and the Sunwolves to Durban.
It wouldn’t at all surprise to see the Cheetahs win one of their last two. And whoever they beat, that’ll be the team to drop out of the race.
Neutral refs nice while it lasted
Remember through the middle part of the season how I highlighted how we seemed to be seeing more genuinely neutral referees appointed in the ‘international’ or cross-conference games?
Well, it seems that policy, or movement, or trend, or whatever it was, has been forgotten since the June break.
Where by mid-season there appeared to be a neutral ref appointed in every second game, since the resumption of the Super Rugby only four neutral refs have been appointed in 12 ‘international’ games. And there’s been no instance of neutral referees doing intra-conference derbies over the last two rounds either.
But there might be a good reason for that.
With the playoffs just a fortnight away, a number of refs simply won’t get games, not even assistant referee jobs, and so a lot of those less-experienced or lower-ranked whistle-blowers are getting their last games of 2016 out of the way now, a ‘thanks for the efforts’ vote of confidence to round out their Super Rugby seasons.
Once we get into the playoffs, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see neutral refs appointed wherever possible. Chris Pollock, Angus Gardner, Craig Joubert, and Jaco Peyper – in no particular order – are the four leading the race for the quarter-finals. Not that it’s SANZAAR policy, of course, but just because it’s the logical and right thing to do.
We can only hope that’s the case.
Enjoy your penultimate round of Super Rugby.