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Round 16 loomed as a weekend to shape the eight, but few could have predicted all of the eventual outcomes.
Hawthorn put in one of their best performances of the year to down Port. Sydney bounced back from a loss to put Geelong to the sword. Collingwood pulled one of the surprises of the season to down GWS.
The Tigers gave the Bulldogs a frightful scare, and prevented what Dogs fans were hoping would be a critical percentage-boosting win. The Dogs still need to find a few more goals a game.
As the top eight teams jockey for position, the talk is about three advantages – home finals, the double chance and a potential weeks rest.
The week’s rest could be a poisoned chalice this year, given that all finalists will have the week off post-Round 23 thanks to the bizarre and frankly ludicrous decision by the AFL to have a football-free weekend on the eve of finals.
The winner of the first two qualifying finals will have played one match in 27-28 days by the time they get to their preliminary final. It can’t be the ideal position to be in, physically or mentally.
The AFL will have by now realised what a calamitous error they made, and this will be reinforced when the week off arrives. However, imagine how swiftly the idea will be cut if both winning qualifying finalists lose their prelim, due in large part to rust. I suspect we are seeing a one-off.
The double chance is always handy, but not often maximised. Hawthorn benefited last year to win the premiership after an off day in their first final. Prior to that, West Coast in 2006 were the last team to win the flag after losing a final.
Given how even the top eight appears to be, with all of them capable of beating each other on any given day, home ground advantage is expected to be decisive. There will be four Victorian sides playing finals, as well as four non-Victorian.
But perhaps the advantage isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. You have to go back to 2010 to find a finals series where all games involving a travelling team were won by the home side.
Last year, we saw Adelaide defeat the Western Bulldogs in Melbourne, North Melbourne beat Sydney up there, and Hawthorn bring down Fremantle in a Perth preliminary final.
Freo have had a couple of famous final victories over Geelong in recent years, one at Simonds Stadium and one at the MCG. Port also snagged a couple of Victorian finals wins when they played in September during Ken Hinkley’s first two years.
The underdog won all but one of the above examples, so those victories were a surprise for the most part, and some of them significantly so.
Hawthorn have won each of their last three flags against non-Victorian teams, which has actually made them a statistical quirk in historical context.
There have been 14 grand finals involving Victorian and non-Victorian teams. Prior to the Hawks winning run, the interstate side had won eight of the 11 grand final match-ups. Hawthorn themselves were victims to this when losing the 2012 grand final to Sydney.
Even in this season, as we get closer to the pointy end, we can expect home ground advantage to lose some of its shine.
Last week, we saw the Bulldogs overcome the Swans at the SCG. Sydney has then come to Geelong for a win at Simonds Stadium. Even Hawthorn travelled to Adelaide to beat a Power outfit in reasonable form that has troubled them in the recent past. It was a win of merit.
West Coast would appear the team most likely for results to go according to home ground advantage in finals, so they need to climb as high as they can as quick as they can. For all the negativity, doubt and name-calling surrounding them, they are still fifth on the ladder with the second best percentage in the competition.
The Eagles don’t play another finalist until Round 21, so if they can win their next four, three of which should be gimme’s, they should be in the top four, and may even be in the top two by the time they head to Spotless Stadium to take on the Giants.
We would all like our respective teams to be playing home finals in September, but most of the nine finals, if not all of them, are going to involve one team being on the road. Chances are, the team that lifts the premiership cup aloft this year is going to have won a final outside of their home state.
History says it’s not as difficult as that may appear. Although, you probably want to avoid being an interstate side playing Hawthorn on grand final day. But since I’ve already written them off, that’s not going to happen, right? Right?