With this year’s State of Origin series already decided, New South Wales will be out to salvage some pride and avoid being whitewashed for the second time in the past decade.
Though the Blues have been competitive this series, the class and experience of the Maroons proved to be the difference in each of the opening two games, and again it proves that experience, and not form, is what wins Origin series.
Tonight’s dead rubber match has given Laurie Daley the chance to blood some new talent, with James Tedesco to debut at fullback while the ladder-leading Sharks’ halves combination of Jack Bird and James Maloney have also been employed.
More Origin
» Laurie Daley’s survival guide: How many points can he lose by?
» Why NSW will win Game 3
» Why Queensland will win Game 3
» Final NSW Blues and Queensland Maroons line-ups
» Expert tips and predictions
Matt Moylan, who was originally dropped after the second game, gets a second chance after Adam Reynolds was ruled out with a shoulder injury; his omission is the Blues’ only forced change, though Dylan Walker and Greg Bird also make way.
And after suspension denied Wade Graham his Origin debut last month, the Sharks enforcer will finally get his chance, starting in the second row with Tyson Frizell, who played very well on his own debut in Game II, starting at lock.
It will now remain to be seen whether the changes made by Daley, in what could be his final Origin game as NSW coach, will pay dividends.
In fact it has even been suggested that this could be the start of a sustained period of dominance for the Blues, such is the talent that has been named for this game.
As for the Maroons, who have enjoyed a relaxed approach to Game III with the knowledge that they have once again retained the Origin shield, they’ll be out to spoil Paul Gallen’s farewell and shoot for just their second clean sweep since 1995.
In addition, they’ll also want to send retiring Origin warhorse Corey Parker out a winner, after the Broncos veteran announced last month that he would retire at the end of this NRL season.
Much like the Blues, the changes to the Maroons side has come out of their control, with Michael Morgan and Josh Papalii both being forced out due to injury.
Veteran Nate Myles returns after missing Game II with injury while Gavin Cooper, at the age of 30, makes his debut off the bench.
Let’s now have a look at the two line-ups, and the ins and outs from Game II.
New South Wales
James Tedesco, Blake Ferguson, Michael Jennings, Josh Dugan, Josh Mansour, Jack Bird, James Maloney, Aaron Woods, Robbie Farah, Paul Gallen, Wade Graham, Josh Jackson, Tyson Frizell. Interchange: Matt Moylan, James Tamou, David Klemmer, Andrew Fifita. 18th man: Tom and Jake Trbojevic. Coach: Laurie Daley
From Game II:
In: James Tedesco*, Wade Graham*, Josh Dugan
Out: Dylan Walker (dropped), Greg Bird (dropped), Adam Reynolds (injured)
* denotes debutant
Queensland
Darius Boyd, Corey Oates, Greg Inglis, Justin O’Neill, Dane Gagai, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk, Matt Scott, Cameron Smith (c), Nate Myles, Matt Gillett, Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker. Interchange: Gavin Cooper, Josh McGuire, Aidan Guerra, Jacob Lillyman. 18th man: Felise Kaufusi. Coach: Kevin Walters
From Game II:
In: Nate Myles, Gavin Cooper*
Out: Michael Morgan, Josh Papalii (both injured)
* denotes debutant
Why the Blues will win
Not only will the Blues be out to salvage some pride after a tenth series loss in the past eleven years, they’ll also be keen to send outgoing captain Paul Gallen a winner in his final Origin match on home soil.
Gallen has given his all for his state since debuting in that fateful 2006 decider which the Blues lost after they’d won the opening match of that series. They had the chance to become the first state to win four consecutive Origin series, but history will tell us that it would be the start of the Maroons’ ongoing dominance.
After eight consecutive series defeats, his persistence finally paid off in 2014 when he led the Blues to their first Origin series victory since 2005. It was a massive highlight in what was otherwise a tough year for him personally, with his NRL side the Cronulla Sharks finishing with the wooden spoon that season.
Speaking of the Sharks, the current ladder leaders have five representatives in the Blues side, which is reflective of their dominance whereby they are currently riding a 13-game winning streak, the best by any side in the NRL since 2002.
The Blues will also want to win for their coach, Laurie Daley, who is reportedly in the firing line after presiding over three series defeats in the four years in which he has been in charge.
It must, though, be remembered that he was the man who coached the side to its’ drought-breaking series victory in 2014, which remains the only gaping hole in the Maroons’ decade-long dominance.
But whether he will survive past this series could hinge on the result of this match.
Why the Maroons will win
With the series already won, the Maroons will be out to silence the pro-NSW crowd and achieve just their second series clean-sweep in the past decade in enemy territory, repeating the misery they inflicted on the Blues back in 2010.
That would give coach Kevin Walters the dream start to his Origin coaching career, whereby he would become the first rookie coach since Paul Vautin in 1995 to win a debut series 3-0.
In addition the all-conquering Maroons will also be keen to send retiring warhorse Corey Parker out a winner, the Broncos veteran having featured prominently throughout their decade-long Origin dominance.
They have previously sent Darren Lockyer (2011) and Petero Civoniceva (2012) into Origin retirement with a series victory, but for the case of Parker his perfect retirement gift will be an Origin clean sweep, if the Maroons can do it.
The verdict
Despite the Maroons having already wrapped up the series, the Blues will start as favourites among the bookies and with the home ground advantage will hope to avoid being clean-swept for just the second time since 1995.
If the Blues win, the player who will deserve it the most is Paul Gallen, who has led with his heart and soul throughout the past decade of pain and surely doesn’t deserve to enter Origin retirement without a victory in his final series.
Debutant James Tedesco will also be out to prove that he can perform on the Origin arena, while Jack Bird and James Maloney will also be out to ensure that the magic they’ve weaved at Cronulla also works on rugby league’s biggest stage.
However, as much as the Blues will want to win, the Maroons will have other tricks up their sleeve as they seek to win the series 3-0, which would be the perfect parting gift for retiring forward Corey Parker.
Kevin Walters’ men started the job in Sydney six weeks ago, and will be out to finish it at the very same venue tonight. That said, I’m backing the Maroons to take the points home.
Prediction
Queensland by four points.
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