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The pundits reckon Laurie Daley will be sacked if NSW don’t win Origin 3 tonight, but the five Australian Super Rugby coaches aren’t too crash hot either.
Tonight at ANZ Stadium, Daley will be coaching his 12th Origin game, with his track record standing at one series success in 2014, but just four wins from 11 games.
Those stats just don’t stack up.
NSW has scored a mere 118 points to Queensland’s 201, and 19 tries to 32, which is why Blues power-brokers have Geoff Toovey and Ivan Cleary ready to take over.
In short, Daley must win tonight to survive.
But depending on the power-brokers, even though the very popular and highly respected coach has a year to go on his contract, a win still mightn’t save him.
But the five Australian Super Rugby coaches have been even worse against the New Zealand franchises this season.
In the 24 games so far, Australian franchises have lost 20, won three, and drawn one.
Surprisingly, the lowly Reds have the best result, beating the Highlanders 28-27, and the 25-all draw with the Blues.
The Brumbies beat the Hurricanes 52-10 in the opening round, and the Waratahs beat the Chiefs 45-25, but the Rebels and the Force have both lost all five games
The Australians have scored 444 points to 825, and crossed for 54 tries to 116 – one-way traffic.
Individually, the Waratahs have been the best performed in four games, with the Blues to play at Eden Park on Friday night. So far the Tahs have scored 98 points to 112, points differential of minus 14, with 14 tries to 16.
The Brumbies have scored 114 points to 161, points differential of minus 47, with 14 tries to 21.
The Reds – 77 points to 169, points differential of minus 92, crossing for nine tries to 24.
The Force – 68 points to 163, points differential of minus 95, with five tries to 24.
The Rebels are worst performed – 87 points to 220, points differential of minus 133, with 12 tries to 31.
Little wonder four of the Kiwi franchises look likely to make the final eight.
The Crusaders are the best-performed with 212 points to just 74, points differential of plus 138, scoring 29 tries to 10.
Next the Chiefs, with 212 points to 98, points differential of plus 114, scoring 32 tries to 12.
Then the Highlanders with 139 points to 87, points differential of plus 52, scoring 17 tries to ten.
The Hurricanes with 144 points to 102, points differential of plus 42, scoring 21 tries to 12.
The Blues have the Waratahs to play, so in their four games, the Blues have scored 118 points to 83, points differential of plus 35, with 17 tries to ten.
On those stats, even though the All Blacks have lost Richie McCaw with a world record 148 caps, Dan Carter with 112, Ma’a Nonu (103), Conrad Smith (94), and Kevan Mealamu (132) from their World Cup winning side – 589 caps in total – the men in black should have little trouble with gold this season.