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Now we know the eight teams in up this year’s Super Rugby finals, the question is whether the four New Zealand teams will advance.
The lopsided seeding process for the finals – where each group winner is guaranteed a home final, whether they had the most log points or not – means the in-form New Zealand teams are spread across the four fixtures this week.
» Check out the complete 2017 Super Rugby draw right here
The semi-finals could be Hurricanes versus Crusaders and Highlanders v Crusaders. And honestly, this season might deserve that outcome – 2016 has been the year the New Zealand teams showed how far Australia – and South Africa to a lesser extent – have to go in the year after a world cup. (Even the Blues would have come third in any of the other groups.)
Obviously the biggest result of the final round in terms of impact on the ladder was the Lions loss to the Jaguares after they insulted them by leaving a full first team at home for the final round of the season.
Apart from the Lions dropping their bundle the most important match last weekend in terms of finals hopes was the Highlanders 25-15 win over the Chiefs.
On the face of it a 25-15 result doesn’t mean a whole lot, but those who watched will be aware the level of intensity and commitment in that match was incredible. The speed around the park, jumping up for repeat efforts (Eddie Jones would have been proud), accuracy and belief was a notch above what we’ve seen this year.
That match reminded me of an innocuous score line that was nonetheless a brilliant match last year – the 2015 Super Rugby final. Those who didn’t see that final might not have blinked twice at the Highlanders 21-14 score line over the Hurricanes in that final – but, again, anyone who watched knew they were seeing greatness.
The Highlanders versus Chiefs fixture wasn’t quite of the same vintage, but it was in the same ballpark and might have been the best round robin match of this year. Both teams are obviously heading towards the heights of last season’s final at the right time.
The same can’t necessarily be said of Highlanders opponent in Canberra, the Brumbies. They have a slightly stodgy victory against the Force and a loss to the Blues taking them into the finals. I’m willing to notch that up to a Highlanders semi-final qualification.
It will be a tougher for the Chiefs to go away and win against the Stormers, who they skipped during the round robin this year. But if they are able to bring 80 per cent of the game they did last weekend they’ll get out of that fixture.
The Stormers will be rested and waiting in Cape Town, but the step up in quality for them will be massive. Their last three matches are against the Rebels, Force (who they were uninspiring against) and the Kings.
I’m picking the Chiefs do the job and when things get shaky they have the energetic go-forward of Tawera Kerr-Barlow and class of Aaron Cruden to right the ship.
The other two New Zealand finals teams played in a quality match of their own last weekend. But the Hurricanes 35-10 victory over the Crusaders was more decisive than the other New Zealand derby, even if still played at a high level.
The Crusaders played well, especially in the first half, but the Hurricanes had more to give in the second term and were value for a solid win.
It would be a serious shock if the Sharks, a full ten points behind the Canes on the ladder, manage to pick up a win in Wellington. The Sharks aren’t without a chance – they had a great tour of New Zealand earlier in the year, snatching up a win in Dunedin. But without Pat Lambie, and against a Hurricanes team on an upward curve it will be a step too far.
Take the Canes at home, with perhaps a couple of late tries making the score appear more lopsided than the match.
If you were to pick a Kiwi side to lose this weekend it would be the Crusaders. They’re coming off a very hard fought match against the Hurricnes, whereas the Lions first 15 has been cooling its heels while the second 15 took a beating in Argentina. The Lions play with the kind of pace and guile that should see them past and around the Crusaders strong pack and set piece game.
What Crusaders fans would be hoping for is Lions players with little finals experience to melt down under pressure if they find themselves behind. Elton Jantjies is a candidate for such a performance if he starts poorly.
But I’d take the home team over the travellers, who will get into Johannesburg late because the Lions loss to the Jaguares jumbled the finals fixtures at the last minute. Perhaps that’s the real benefit to come from leaving their first 15 behind?
Looking through each match, I predict three New Zealand teams will make the semi-finals this year. But all four making it is still a live possibility.
The noteworthy aspect to the performance of the New Zealand teams this year is there truly is a sense of renewal.
Sam Cane has taken a visible and significant step up, Ardie Savea looks fully at home at this level, Richie Mo’unga is a real gem and Jordan Taufua will still roll through people.
The Hurricanes lost All Black greats Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith in the centres, had to start a new pairing this year and ended with wing/full back Jason Woodward in the 13 jersey last round but still qualified top of the ladder.
No one is wishfully looking back for their Dan Carter or Richie McCaw.
Even if someone is able to knock off at least one New Zealand team and win Super Rugby this year you get the feeling 2017 won’t bring with it a step down across the ditch.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.