North Melbourne’s loss to Port Adelaide on Saturday afternoon has opened a Pandora’s box of mathematical chances and what ifs. The ‘Roos will probably be safe, but they aren’t the most interesting proposition in the final six rounds of the year.

Like Hayden Ballantyne’s cheekbone following a run in with Corey Enright (told you something would happen), the league ladder is compressed after an interesting Round 17.

After Hawthorn’s fifth close win for the year, the rest of the slate sort of meandered along save for Port’s win. The sum of the various parts is that Adelaide and GWS are in the top four, the former with a game in hand and the latter with the best percentage in the league. There’s popcorn wherever you look.

Pretty incredible that after 17 rounds the ladder has West Coast, who are not good, above Geelong, who could easily win the premiership.

— Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) July 17, 2016

Six rounds to go. These 54 games will decide, among many things, who finishes in eighth spot.

The ‘Roos are now almost certainly 2016 also-rans – a perspective I railed against last week, only to have North Melbourne do North Melbourne things – and there is now a small chance that they end 2016 outside of the finals all together.

That would be a stunning turn of events, although one befitting of the worst 9-0 team in history.

Their next move, after this season, is super interesting. We’ll save that for another time.

2016 all comes down to North Melbourne’s next fortnight. Coming into the round, they were three games clear of Port Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda and Melbourne in ninth through 12th.

After the Power’s win, and St Kilda’s victory over Melbourne, the gap is just two games between those three sides.

Collingwood have a chance to join the race for eighth on Friday night. If they win, in what is all of a sudden an eight-point game for the ‘Roos in some ways, then they too will be two games behind North. It is a high leverage game, albeit one that North Melbourne would feel somewhat comfortable in regarding their chances.

Somewhat – we’ll deal with that on Friday.

Unfortunately for North, they then go on to play St Kilda the week after. That game could close the gap to a solitary win. It is real and present danger for North Melbourne, although conventional wisdom would suggest they’re still going to be safe. But yeesh, it didn’t have to be this way.

For the other seven finalists, the next six weeks are all about positioning and seeding for the finals. Cam Rose copped a lot of flak last week for saying home field advantage doesn’t mean anything in finals. I’m not quite sold on it being meaningless, but in this season, where all sorts of crazy stuff is happening, it doesn’t appear to be as important as conventional wisdom suggests. Take the League’s new Big Three.

Guys

R1 GEE def HAW
R8 SYD def HAW
R16 SYD def GEE
R17 HAW def SYD

All played at the defeated team's home ground

O.o #AFLSwansHawks #AFL

— Ryan Buckland (@RyanBuckland7) July 14, 2016

But, match ups do matter. The next six weeks are full of possibilities.

Two games clear of fifth, Hawthorn are almost certainly top-four finishers from here save some dramatic collapse. The ‘Roos are probably locked out of the top four by virtue of their form and run home. But otherwise, every spot is open to every team. We might need to stop referring to teams as “top four” as a marker of their abilities – this thing is going to shift every week as we head for the last week of August.

As we get there, some games will matter more than others. Here are the ten games that’ll decide the finals pairings, starting with a couple of crackers this weekend.

Port Adelaide v Greater Western Sydney, Round 18
What looked like a dead rubber a week ago is all of a sudden a live game for Port Adelaide. The Power systemically obliterated North Melbourne in the first quarter of their game over the weekend, in a display that would have put most of the sides of better ability than North under pressure.

Port Adelaide are a flawed team, but no less flawed than the ‘Roos, and as such are no less deserving of a part in the finals show. Pertinently, the Power currently have a slightly better percentage than North Melbourne, and so only have to close the wins gap – all things being equal – to pinch their place. Winning against the Giants this weekend would go a hell of a long way to that goal.

Since the Power flirted with the bottom four in the first six rounds of the season, they’ve been a much improved team even though the wins haven’t necessarily flowed. Port are 5-5 with a percentage of 125 in their past 10, after starting the year 3-3 with a percentage of just under 90. Much of this has been draw-related, but even still, the turnaround has been strong.

Still, the Giants are a much more well-rounded team, and better than Port Adelaide where Port Adelaide have been stomping on other sides – at the clinches. Home field makes this one a bit more intriguing, but the Giants should win a tight one.

The Power will come out all guns blazing if they are who we think they are, and even a dank, wet evening against the Lions couldn’t stop the Giants from doing the same. We could see 20 goals kicked in Q1 alone.

Geelong v Adelaide, Round 18
Saturday night’s rematch of two highly rated teams has plenty more on the line than the Dangerfield Cup. It could very well decide whether Adelaide can collect enough wins to finish inside the top two, and ditto the Cats. A win to either side will probably be enough to see them finish in the top four.

Neither side have particularly challenging runs home after this game. The Cats follow this game up with a home stand against the Western Bulldogs, before gently warming up for finals with a quartet of teams in the bottom part of the ladder. The Crows, by contrast, play the bottom three in their next three weeks, before a showdown re-match and a home game against the Eagles in Round 23. In essence, both of these teams should start favourite in every game they have to play after this one.

So it’s a big, huge, ginormous game. Unfortunately it overlaps with the Western Bulldogs hosting St Kilda – oh well, late night for me on Saturday.

The Crows currently sit second on 12 wins, with a percentage of 132.7. They still have some big percentage pay days in the form of games against the Dons, Lions and Dockers coming. It is not only possible, but likely, that the Crows end the year with the best percentage in the competition. Given they will almost certainly win these three games, that would take them to 15 wins which even in this even season should be enough for a top two spot.

Their top two chances, then, hinge on winning one or two of their other games – getting this one in the books would make the numbers look far more amenable.

Geelong also have a big percentage pay day coming, although we thought that was to be the case last Friday. The Dockers did what every other lowly-rated team has done to Geelong this year: thrown numbers at the ball, and blunted the influence of the Cats’ midfield. By almost every measure, this should have been a comfortable win to Geelong, but once again the Cats’ forward line group wasn’t functional.

We will get clarity as to where the Cats sit in the League’s hierarchy this weekend.

A win to the Cats would see them draw level with Adelaide on 12 wins, and a big enough win might see them overtake them on percentage. I’m getting giddy just thinking about it.

Geelong v Western Bulldogs, Round 19
It doesn’t get much easier for the Cats, who follow up a really tough assignment against the Crows with a game against the medieval torture machine from the House of Beveridge.

The Western Bulldogs are starting to get many of their injured players back on the park, although a niggling shoulder injury to Jake Stringer in last weekend’s game hits that narrative a little.

Once he’s back, they Dogs will be waiting on Luke Dahlhaus and Marcus Adams to appear in the next couple of weeks, before they will be at near-full strength (excluding season-ending injuries). Their depth chart is set to look pristine at just the right time, which might just be what separates the teams as we get closer to the pointy end of the year.

As an aside, AFL.com.au pumped out some numbers late last week that looked at the injury ladder for the full course of the year. As is my way, I fiddled with them a bit and put them on a chart. As a further aside, Cam and I talked a bit about this on this week’s Roar AFL Podcast.

I commend thee a poorly formatted Excel chart of injuries in the #AFL this year, based on @NathanSchmook's piece pic.twitter.com/1qVNFPnSyr

— Ryan Buckland (@RyanBuckland7) July 14, 2016

The Dogs sit in the high number, low impact quadrant, and have had the highest number of games missed to injury of fellow top eight finishers to date. Now that these guys are getting back on the park, the Dogs will be dangerous.

Footscray’s biggest issue heading into finals will be scoring. They are a more glamorous version of Fremantle as it stands. A rock solid defence, built on scheme and work rate, but an attacking system that won’t allow them to keep up with the flamethrowers going to work around them. The Dogs cracked 100 points over the weekend against the Suns, and it was the prodigal son, Tom Boyd, who gave them some spark. Boyd was involved in nine scores for the Dogs, behind only Liam Picken (11) and Mitch Wallis (10).

This game itself will give the Dogs a chance to pull the Cats back down to earth, while simultaneously giving themselves a leg up in their climb towards the top four. With a weak percentage, the Doggies will have to hope to earn a clean break over fifth and sixth position in the wins column, and the only chance they have to control their destiny in this respect is against Geelong (they also play North, but as we’ve discussed, North have bigger fish to fry than reaching for a double chance).

We should expect the Dogs to hit this game like a sledgehammer on a watermelon.

North Melbourne v St Kilda, Round 19
Here’s a game with potentially super-high leverage, depending on what happens this weekend.

Should St Kilda knock off the Western Bulldogs, or the Pies beat North, then this game can become something of a ‘win and in’ game for St Kilda. It isn’t likely, though, because the Dogs forced the Saints through a fine mesh screen earlier in the year.

Like Port Adelaide, St Kilda sit two games back from the ‘Roos; they also have a far weaker percentage that isn’t likely to be made up in six games. But unlike the Power, the Saints still have a chance to keep a win off of the ‘Roos while simultaneously earning a win themselves.

Should the next two weeks unfold in their favour, St Kilda have Carlton, Richmond, Sydney and Brisbane in their final four versus North’s gauntlet. The Saints have been a bit up and down this year as their percentage would indicate, but catch fire for the next six weeks and an unlikely trip to September awaits.

Remember when I said don’t sleep on St Kilda? I didn’t actually think they would have a chance – an outside chance, but a chance – of making the eight this deep into the year. They’re an emerging team, playing with a youthful exuberance which makes them difficult to play, and a forward line that is both young and effective. The Saints are a team to watch over this off season, as we look towards 2017.

The last three rounds are going to be immense
We’re getting a little bit further out now, so the ladder implications of these final handful of games are difficult to tease out. There are six games to be played exclusively by teams jostling for finals positions, including two in the final round itself.

Hawthorn v North Melbourne, Round 21
Greater Western Sydney v West Coast, Round 21
West Coast v Hawthorn, Round 22
North Melbourne v Sydney, Round 22
North Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney, Round 23
Adelaide v West Coast, Round 23

The Eagles and ‘Roos have remarkably tough runs to end the year, and they will also be thrust into the role of judge and jury for finals seedings in these last three weeks of the home-and-away season. West Coast, for example, could end up well ensconced in the top four if they make good on their next three rounds of non-finalists match ups, and eek out a win over the Giants in Round 21.

Similarly, if North Melbourne miraculously leap out of their death bed and play competent football, they are still well enough placed to jump out of the eight seed should they win a couple of these games.

Heading into this final stretch of the season, we can pick our battles a little – for every West Coast v Hawthorn there is likely to be two or three Essendon v Brisbane-style encounter.

The last 54 games as a collective will tell us plenty: who is set to rise in 2017, which players are staking claims for the Rising Star award, All Australian jumpers, and Brownlow Medal, and where the most pressing needs can and will be addressed in the stupor of the month long player movement period.

There’s the morbid curiosity associated with the inevitable wooden spoon play off, and as we’ve seen throughout this season, the most unlikely of match ups can give us spectacular games of football.

But these ten games in particular loom as critical to sorting out who plays who in the first week of finals. And that, really, is where our minds will start to naturally drift as the dog days of the AFL season draw to a close.