Hello Roarers, and welcome back once again to The Roar‘s AFL expert tips! Believe it or not there is just six weeks of footy left in the year, and our tipping race is still very tight.
BJ Conkey is leading the pack on 104, with Michael DiFabrizio and The Crowd close behind each on 103, and as for my own form, well, nevermind, let’s move right along…
The clear match of the round and the most interesting tipping challenge of the week is Geelong and Adelaide at Simonds Stadium.
The Crows are coming into this off the back of eight consecutive wins that has turned them into arguably the best form team in the competition.
The Cats, on the other hand, have been consistently ‘meh’, ironically ever since they won the reverse of this match-up earlier in the year. On that night they were called premiership favourites, but they’ve since dropped three matches to teams outside the top eight (and another to Sydney), while threatening to do it again last week against Fremantle.
Those respective form lines would usually have me tipping the Crows but so many matches between top eight sides have gone the way less expected this year that I am going to tip the Cats to continue that entertaining trend. Good logic or a terrible call? We’ll find out on Saturday night.
We’ve got two matches this week that are both meaningless in the context of the season but tricky to tip all the same – Gold Coast vs Fremantle and Essendon vs Brisbane.
Usually in a tipping decision I try to work out which team has more ways to win, but in this case – particularly with the Dons and the Lions – it’s a battle of which side is less cripplingly bad.
The Suns and the Dockers have both played some goodish footy at stages this year but both continue to take repetitive beatings with the injury stick.
The Bombers and Brisbane have two wins between them from 32 starts. That’s just trash – the Bombers at least have an excuse, though much like trying to get out of work with a hangover, no one feels sorry for them given it’s self-inflicted.
I’m tipping the home side on both occasions but it’s easy enough to see either match go either way.
My beloved North come up against Collingwood on Friday night looking to end a run of five consecutive losses. It’s been 49 days since the team won a match of footy, if you can believe it! I’m starting to forget how the song goes…
The Pies have actually been in some really solid form lately and have a good record against North in recent times so I can’t fault anyone who tips them. I’ll be sticking with my Roos, but more out of stubbornness and loyalty than any real confidence or conviction that they’re going to win.
Port Adelaide have a chance to really put themselves in the frame for finals against the Giants on Sunday. That said, while their win last week was impressive, they were really let off the hook by North’s inability to nail set shots in the third quarter. I don’t feel they’ve improved enough to the point where the Giants shouldn’t be able to take them out fairly comfortably.
West Coast came dangerously close to letting one slip against Carlton last week, but are back at home this week when they host Melbourne. I’d be tempted to tip the Dees if it was being played at the MCG – but it’s not, so the Eagles it is.
Hawthorn are clearly a better footy team than Richmond and yet the Tigers have a penchant for upsetting them on occasion. I’ll still tip the Hawks, but watch this one with interest.
The Bulldogs should get a win over St Kilda, and Sydney should comfortably dispatch Carlton. The latter of those two will be my lock of the week (13-3 and counting).
Michael DiFabrizio
This is a great round for footy tipping. There’s a number of games that could ruin the season for tipsters.
Collingwood have been playing well of late, but it’s time for North Melbourne to break their losing streak. The Roos got better on paper with the names they had in last week and so it stands to reason improvement can’t be far off.
Gold Coast should win at home against Fremantle. I like the Dockers and they would definitely take a fair bit out of a good performance last week, but it’s hard to tip them at the best of times, let alone on the road.
Adelaide are well placed to carry on winning against Geelong. The Cats’ recent form hasn’t been pretty and a team in their current state shouldn’t, in theory, topple a team as in-form as the Crows.
Essendon should move off the bottom of the ladder with a win over the Brisbane Lions. Venue plays a big role in this tip, as had it been in Brisbane I’d have gone the other way.
Port Adelaide are my tip against GWS. At home and with some handy players in good form, the Power should respond to the opportunity presented by eighth spot coming back on the market.
BJ Conkey
I thought the Kangaroos would stop the rot last week but another loss makes it difficult to back them. The Pies have a good record against North and will be battle hardened after the intensity of taking on Adelaide in Adelaide.
Too many players out for Fremantle including Matthew Pavlich to confidently back them against the Suns. Gold Coast have been much better in the past month and should have enough scoring power to get the job done.
Adelaide hasn’t won in Geelong since 2003 and while Simmonds Stadium may not be as imposing as it once was, the Cats are still pretty tough to beat at the venue.
The Crows have been in great form but I think the Cats are due to finally take advantage of their strong inside 50 marking stats.
Geelong kicked 20 behinds the last time the two sides played in Round 8 but still got the job done. Bring on the Rory Sloane vs Patrick Dangerfield match-up!
| Round 18 | BJ Conkey | Michael | Josh | The Crowd |
| COL v NTM | COL | NTM | NTM | COL |
| SYD v CAR | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| GCS v FRE | GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS |
| WCE v MEL | WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE |
| WB v STK | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| GEE v ADL | GEE | ADL | GEE | GEE |
| ESS v BL | ESS | ESS | ESS | ESS |
| HAW v RIC | HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW |
| PA v GWS | GWS | PA | GWS | GWS |
| Last round | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Total | 104 | 103 | 100 | 103 |
Round six of the AFL provided us with plenty of talking points. Some teams are starting to build momentum whilst others are struggling to…
The Pies premiership player was alluding to the discussion around "body shaming" in AFL fitness tests, with skinfold tests for draftees recently scrapped, adding…
Has there ever been a team more “quietly” unbeaten and on top of the ladder, like Geelong this year? The Cats are a game…
The polarising Hawks figure pondered the idea of pursuing a job behind the mic. Ginnivan and Kane Cornes have history, with the latter previously…
Adelaide's Taylor Walker has thrown his support behind a 'captain's call' in order to prevent umpiring blunders, which the Crows have been on the…
Jesse Hogan's striking charge was thrown out by the tribunal citing that negligible contact was made with Carlton's Lewis Young. AFL 360's Mark Robinson…
