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North have been flavour of the week in the media, and what better way to respond than beat up on one of the teams nipping as your mathematical heels in the first game of a pivotal weekend. The Pies aren’t a chance here, right?
The ‘Roos have been through the ringer this week, as their season unravels before the league’s eyes. Nary a positive word was spoken, except by The Roar’s resident shinboner Josh Elliott, who leaped to the defence of his under-siege team in avery measured take on where things are at.
Elliott’s hypothesis is one I support: the deterioration at North has been driven by a regression of their forward line to the mean – and probably a bit further south – while Todd Goldstein has become something of an average proposition in the ruck. They were North’s two defining competitive advantages coming into the year, and they have faded.
Their injury list hasn’t helped in this regard. Shaun Higgins, who was looking like one of the recruits of the decade at one point, has returned to his fragile ways. Jarrad Waite is 33 and has played 220 games of football as a bustling key forward, and as such has the injuries you would expect to arise in a 33 year old bustling key forward that has played 220 games of football.
Jed Anderson has barely played, Kayne Turner is missing, and Drew Petrie hasn’t spent much time in the seniors this year (…wait, what?).
North’s toll isn’t as large as Fremantle’s, but it is concentrated on one area of the ground – the area of the ground that happened to be most important for North’s prospects.
As we discussed earlier in the week, North are still almost certainly going to make the finals from the position they’re in, despite their difficult run home.
A two game buffer is a two game buffer, and with six rounds remaining the quantitative models I’ve seen still have them pegged at a 3-1 chance, at worst, of making it in. But that chance could be blown wide open with a win to the Pies tonight.
A Collingwood win would bring them within that two game zone, but pending the rest of the weekend’s results it could bring the closest chasers, Port Adelaide and St Kilda, to within one game. The Power have the Giants at home and Brisbane away in their next fortnight, while the Saints host the Dogs and North themselves.
Again, it is unlikely, but unlikely implies there is a possibility. It means this game is of paramount importance, if only to put a halt to this narrative hanging over Arden Street like an ominous storm cloud full of thick rain and thunder.
This is a Collingwood home game, but as a product of the Melbourne stadia deal struck some time ago, it’s being played at North’s home ground. That’s despite the Pies hosting Fremantle at a mostly empty MCG a couple of weeks ago; stadium choices made this season have often been perplexing. This obviously works in North Melbourne’s favour, given they are not in form and Collingwood are all wound up and playing their best football of 2016.
The two sides have played at Docklands five times, with the Pies holding sway 3-2. Their most recent encounter was in 2013, though, arguably before either team were anything resembling their current iterations. We can largely disregard that history. But if we remove the “North” from the “North at Docklands” query, we reveal that the Pies have lost five of their past six games under the dome, stretching back to the 2014 season.
That could be the reason for North’s relatively low market price in this game, although the Pies have only been given a six point head start at the line. It’s an interesting dynamic, and points to the difficulty of assessing just where North Melbourne are at.
I would call this a near-even match across the ground match up wise. Collingwood’s Brodie Grundy has eaten Shane Mumford and Sam Jacobs’ souls over the past fortnight, leading a midfield brigade that beat GWS on their home deck and put up a really good showing against the lethal Adelaide Crows in Adelaide.
On the surface, there isn’t a heap of difference between the two midfield groups; there’s plenty of foot soldiers ably led by a couple of classy players at the top of the depth chart. Qualitatively, it makes the ruck battle critical, and given their respective form lines I’d back Grundie to claim another scalp.
A fully fit North Melbourne forward line would give Collingwood plenty of trouble, but as it stands, the Pies unit should have Ben Brown, Petrie, Lindsay Thomas and co. covered.
Collingwood’s defence inside 50 has been adequate this year – they’ve only conceded scores at an average rate once the ball is in their opponent’s zone, and they have the 10th-ranked defence in the competition.
A lot of it may come down to how Collingwood’s forward line matches up against a much-improved North Melbourne back line. The ‘Roos still have their problems defending one-on-one situations, but no one that Collingwood will employ up forward screams GIVE ME THE BALL like, say, Lance Franklin or Dustin Martin do. North’s zoning and penchant for a plus one should serve them well.
But all told, it’s a toss up game. I’m leaning towards a close encounter. Collingwood’s record in recent weeks has been much improved, while the ‘Roos have been a near-polar opposite. Still, they’re playing in comfortable surroundings, have had their legitimacy questioned, and will be keen to do what they can to close the Pandora’s box that was opened last weekend.
It will be North Melbourne by two goals for me, in a very tight game that could verge on scrappy at times. A loss will set off a very interesting chain of events, which we might do a bit of digging on next week should it arise.
That’s my Friday Night Forecast, what’s yours?