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The Hawks just know how to win

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Roar Rookie
25th July, 2016
20

In a tight season where no team has a handle on premiership favouritism, small margins and factors will go a long way to determining who will emerge as the premiers.

As such, punters would be wise to bet on winning experience in 2016.

Firstly, a line should be put through all teams who fail to make the top four. Never, in the current finals system, has a team finished outside of the top four and won a preliminary final, let alone a premiership.

While only one win separates eighth and second, North Melbourne are unlikely to get the jump on the teams above them. In fact, there is still a slim chance of their complete capitulation with St Kilda snapping at their heels.

Secondly, finals experience has historically counted for a lot come the last day of the season.

Geelong stands alone as the only team to win a grand final under the current system without winning a final the season before, a feat they accomplished in 2007. Of the top four hopefuls this season, only three won in September last year: Adelaide, and 2015 grand finalists West Coast and Hawthorn.

The Geelong anomaly of 2007 could give hope to the likes of Greater Western Sydney or the Western Bulldogs who will come in as the upstarts looking to force a changing of the guard. However, the Cats were by far the best team that year, which was painfully obvious as they overcame the second-placed Port Adelaide by 20 goals on the final day of the season.

More likely to cause another ‘statistical upset’ are Geelong (again) and Sydney, as they have at least a combined team of players with premiership experience. However the ‘fresh blood’ that has rejuvenated their lists in the last year or two have a lot to learn.

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As such, Hawthorn should almost be locks for a fourth consecutive premiership – unprecedented in the modern era. Even without figurehead Jarryd Roughead and recently retired Norm Smith Medallist Brian Lake, Hawthorn have 18 players from their 2015 premiership and a core that has been together for the better part of a decade.

They’ve won twelve finals in the last five years. The next best is Sydney with seven. Geelong have only won just four finals despite immediately springing to mind as a finals hardened outfit – only winning one since their premiership in 2011.

Brisbane couldn’t do it at the turn of the century despite their endless concessions but they faced a challenger far greater than any present to Hawthorn in 2016. They came up against the three-time minor premiers Port Adelaide who had finally overcome mental demons to put the Lions to the sword.

Sydney are the closest comparison to that Port Adelaide team, as they have a lot to prove. The coup of Lance Franklin in the 2013 off-season followed by finishing top in 2014 culminated in a humiliating thrashing at the hands of Franklin’s old team.

They’ll be keen to set that record straight and justify handing the key forward a nine-year contract.

Adelaide is an oddball of the top four hopefuls, exceeding expectations after losing their best player Patrick Dangerfield to free agency. They’re more finals hardened than the Bulldogs and the Giants after their near miss in 2012 and resurgence in 2015, but lack the grand final experience of Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong and West Coast (the latter of which look unlikely due to their flaky away form against fellow contenders).

Sitting two games ahead of the rest should prove enough breathing room for the Hawks to hold onto a top two spot even relatively dismal percentage. Should that happen, their ability to win should provide the edge to go all the way once again in 2016 – possibly without even leaving Melbourne.

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