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The important stats separating the contenders from the pretenders

The Cats will be keen to improve their percentage when they take on the struggling Essendon. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Roar Guru
25th July, 2016
9

Hawthorn are two games clear on the top of the ladder with five weeks to go and St Kilda has a finals sniff.

Every team in the top eight has been in premiership discussions at some point of the year. Which of these teams lead all the important stats that get you to grand final day?

Disposal efficiency
Lots of people judge teams on their disposals count per game but that doesn’t take into consideration how often a team turns the ball over and if they over handball. Teams with poor disposal efficiency will be made pay on grand final day while the teams who are efficient have a major advantage.

The disposal efficiency ladder is:

1-Stkilda-75% (9th on the premiership ladder)
2-Western Bulldogs- 74% (7th)
4-Hawthorn-74% (1st)
7-Geelong-73% (4th)
8-North Melbourne-73% (8th)
10-West Coast-73% (5th)
12-GWS-73% (second)
15-Adelaide- 72% (6th)
18-Sydney-70% (3rd)

St Kilda have exceeded expectations but to be first in such a crucial stat is impressive. As for Sydney it is uncharacteristic of them to be on the bottom of any ladder, even if it is a tight one between first and last.

Inside 50s
This stat shows us which team goes forward most which every top eight team should be highly ranked at.

1-GWS-58 (average per game) (2nd)
2-Sydney-57 (3rd)
3-Geelong-57 (4th)
4-Adelaide-56 (6th)
6-Hawthorn-55 (1st)
7-Western Bulldogs-55 (7th)
9-North Melbourne-53 (8th)
10-West Coast-53 (5th)
11th-St Kilda-52 (9th)

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No surprises that the top nine on the ladder all accommodate a top 11 spot but slightly surprising that West Coast are down at tenth despite being the third-highest-scoring team. On the other hand, Sydney are the tenth-highest-scoring team despite being second in this statistic.

This probably contributes to why they tend to lose close matches – they struggle to consolidate.

Clearances
This stat is a reflection on each teams midfielders and ruckmen. Whoever gets first use of the ball is a factor on every game.

1-GWS-41 (average per game) (second)
2-Adelaide-39 (6th)
5-Sydney-39 (3rd)
6-West Coast-39 (5th)
7-Geelong-38 (4th)
8-North Melbourne-38 (8th)
9-Hawthorn-38 (1st)
10-Western Bulldogs-38 (7th)
14-St Kilda-36 (9th)

GWS are on top which is hardly surprising. What is surprising is how low Hawthorn are ranked, coming in at 9. Will that prove costly come September?

Contested possessions
A factor that can contribute to clearances, top teams will usually have a high contested possession count because of their hard nut footy players.

1-Sydney-164 (3rd)
2-Adelaide-155 (6th)
3-GWS-153 (2nd)
5-Western Bulldogs-150 (7th)
7-Geelong-146 (4th)
9-North Melbourne-145 (8th)
11-West Coast-140- (5th)
14-Hawthorn-136 (1st)
15-St Kilda-134 (9th)

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Another stat that Hawthorn are substandard in. This is surprising to see. West Coast are also lower than expected, otherwise it is a pretty unsurprising result

Turnovers
Probably one of the less important stats, but you still want a low number. This stat tells us which team make the most of having the ball.

When up against the best, this number must be low to give yourself the best possible chance.

This is the ladder from lowest number of turnovers per game to highest.

1-Geelong-64 (4th)
2-West Coast-65 (5th)
3-North Melbourne-65 (8th)
4-Hawthorn-65 (1st)
7-Western Bulldogs-66 (7th)
8-Stkilda-66 (9th)
11-GWS-68 (2nd)
16-Adelaide-71 (6th)
18-Sydney-76 (3rd)

Interesting to see all the teams in the top nine scattered across the 18 but it shows that even the best teams turn it over fairly often. An interesting thing to note though is that the bottom three on the ladder (Essendon, Brisbane and Gold Coast) all rank in the lowest ten in terms of turnovers.

Our last stat of importance is tackles. Often in games the team with more tackles is the losing side, but tackles per game is a good way to look at how much pressure each team applies.

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1-Sydney-82 (3rd)
5-Hawthorn-73 (1st)
7-Geelong-72 (4th)
9-West Coast Eagles-70 (5th)
10-Adelaide-69 (6th)
12-North Melbourne- 68 (8th)
13-Stkilda-68 (9th)
15-GWS-67 (2nd)
17-Western Bulldogs-66 (7th)

Take a bow Sydney. Despite winning almost three quarters of their matches, they still are at the top of this ladder. Hawthorn’s pressure is also reflected here and it is not surprising to see five of the bottom nine spots occupied by the top nine teams.

Now let’s combine these statistics into the following ladder.

Geelong
Hawthorn
GWS
Sydney
Western Bulldogs-48
West Coast-48
Adelaide-49
North Melbourne-49
St Kilda-62

Not surprisingly, St Kilda are ninth by a considerable margin. If they make the eight they are still a whole league behind their counterparts.

The bottom half of the top eight are all very tight, with just one point separating them. Perhaps Adelaide could have been expected to be higher. The top four is also just re-arranged.

Geelong are a great team but have dropped some easy matches which have cost them being clear of the pack. They have proven they tend to win all the important stats. Hawthorn, despite a couple of lower totals are still second with the two Sydney teams not far behind.

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This stat seems to prove that the top four are above the pack. The bottom half of the top four not quite as good as the top part but still a league above Saints. Of course these stats are not the only things that matter, but it will definitely help in September if games get tight.

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