No matter how hard the football gods try, there’s just no separating the top eight in the 2016 AFL season.

The closeness feels like a fairytale, but there is one unavoidable fact in a 22 game season: injuries matter, and this year they’re set to play an enormous role in September.

The AFL season is set up to be a grind. Players return from their end-of-year breaks before Christmas, and can train and play all the way through to the end of September the following year. There’s 22 games, plus three pre-season games, countless training sessions and practise matches, and if they’re good enough, up to four finals.

This is becoming a bit of a habit, but seriously, just look at how close this ladder is at the pointy end.

It’s an incredibly tight top eight! Who do you see claiming the top four spots? pic.twitter.com/RFAaJWvAzx

— AFL (@AFL) July 24, 2016

It’s a great irony in some ways. The AFL introduced an end-of-season bye this year, as a mechanism to combat mass player restings in Round 23, only for it to be effectively redundant in its first year. The Hawks may be the only side with an incentive to put a couple of their veterans on ice in the final week of the season, given they’re two games clear and unlikely to be overtaken with five matches remaining. But otherwise, the 2016 rock fight will be allowed to run its full course.

Six teams sit on 12 wins, four of them with percentages of 130 or more. Any team on 48 points would consider themselves a chance to join Hawthorn in the top two with five games remaining, although West Coast may struggle given their relatively weak percentage and relatively tough run home.

The ‘Roos are still probably safe, although that could change should they lose to a rampant, Etihad-bound St Kilda side that has, quietly, won six of their past eight games and are one of the hottest offensive teams in the competition (although many of their recent games have been played against weak opponents). Saturday night will be fun.

St Kilda’s surge in the second half of the year was confirmed over the weekend when they knocked off the Dogs, although a large share of that win could be owed to the injury bug that bit the Doggies. Footscray lost Mitch Wallis and Jack Redpath to season-ending injuries, who join captain Robert Murphy on the sidelines for the rest of the year. Dale Morris pinged his hamstring, too, in an injury that might mean more than meets the eye.

They join the best-22 trio of Jake Stringer, Luke Dahlhaus and Marcus Adams, although those three are on the injury list with return dates that will see them fit for finals. For the Dogs, though, injuries are striking at the wrong time, and it might be the difference between them pushing for a home final, or a double chance in the top four, and travelling in week one.

The Bulldogs are near the bottom of this edition of ‘Totally Subjective Power Rankings’, where we’ll seek to rank the prospective finalists on the state of their playing lists. There are some quantitative criteria we could use, but they end up being somewhat subjective and so don’t provide much incremental value over my finger-in-the-air attempt below.

This list is presented in order of worst-placed to best-placed. With that in mind, there should be no surprise as to who sits at the bottom.

8. North Melbourne
The ‘Roos are under siege, and their playing stocks are wearing thin. North Melbourne are missing three of their first-choice forwards in Jarrad Waite, Mason Wood and Shaun Higgins, and probable back up Aaron Black is also spending some time on the pine. Higgins is listed as likely to return in the penultimate round, while Waite is indefinite and Wood is at least six weeks away.

Their midfield is being tested, too:. Ben Jacobs, Luke McDonald and Kayne Turner would all play 22 games if fit and firing, while the guy they bought in this year to be a reliable backstop, Farran Ray, has been injured in the middle of both of his most recent games. The great irony of North Melbourne may be that after a couple of years of struggles down back, they’re finally structured up and ready to go just in time for the rest of the side to collapse.

Is it the end? I’m starting to think it could be, but you can’t fault the ‘Roos for going all-in in 2015 and 2016 on the basis that they are a very good football team. They may get the lion’s share of these players back before week one of the finals, but by then it may be too late.

7. Western Bulldogs
Season-ending injuries to Mitch Wallis, who had played every game of 2016, ranked third in inside 50s and second in score involvements, and Jack Redpath, who surely has the broadest shoulders in the League, have come at a terrible time for the Dogs. Veteran defender Dale Morris’ hamstring injury is set to see him miss much of the rest of the home-and-away season, which will have a significant impact on the team’s ability to play their flexible, zoning defensive structures.

Robert Murphy’s absence will be keenly felt during the Doggies’ September campaign, too.

But their short-term injury list is looking somewhat less dramatic. Luke Dahlhaus is set to return in the next couple of weeks after a knee injury in June, newcomer Marcus Adams is listed as two weeks away, and Jake Stringer’s shoulder injury-enforced lay-off was, reportedly, precautionary. Once they all return, there’s an argument that the Dogs will be at their strongest since the first handful of rounds of the season.

So all told, the list isn’t in too bad a shape considering the Dogs have only had eight players play all 17 games this season (and two of them are now injured). But their low ranking here is a measure of the relative state of health that the sides listed below.

6. Geelong Cats
The Cats have just one long-term injury – the luckless Jackson Thurlow, who has once again injured one of his knees. Geelong’s concerns are mostly short-term in nature, and they are anticipating they will be mostly solved before finals begin.

Josh Caddy’s absence has been keenly felt in Geelong’s midfield, and his return will give a unit under fire as being shallow once the very, very good duo on top are accounted for a much needed boost. Lachie Henderson hasn’t set the world on fire, but in an old, slow defensive unit, Henderson is not old and is not as slow as his compatriots.

In short, Geelong will be primed for an assault on the flag that looked unlikely this time 12 months ago. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it until someone beats them in September – what a turn of events.

5. Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn’s absentees include Jarryd Roughead – imagine if he was playing in this team right now given how the forward line is going – and a number of key position players that have seen game time in his absence. They include Daniel Howe, Matt Spangher, Ryan Schoenmakers and Jack Fitzpatrick.

They won’t all fit in the same side come September, but it is likely that one or two of them would ideally be required. As it stands, they’re all listed as indefinite save Howe, who has played as a defender this season. It’s a concern, albeit a minor one.

The other injury concern for Hawthorn is Liam Shiels, who is still a couple of weeks away from returning from a hamstring injury. Hawthorn’s inside midfield hasn’t fired this season, with the tactical prowess of Alastair Clarkson making up for it with his focus on inferred and direct pressure on opponents with the ball. The contested possession count has always been an overused statistic, renowned for its simplicity, and the Hawks are showing this season that it isn’t the be-all that the pundits would have you believe.

Still, I’d guess the Hawks would prefer a situation where they had some more inside grunt (there’s a reason why they’re so heavily into Sydney’s Tom Mitchell), and Shiels provides that. His availability looms as doubly critical given the high number sitting on Luke Hodge’s football odometer has become more and more clear as the season has rolled on.

4. West Coast Eagles
The Eagles’ injury list is a shallow one. Every first choice player bar three are available for selection, and two of those, Sharrod Wellingham and Will Schofield, are listed as test for the week ahead. But there is one giant question mark sitting on it: Nic Naitanui.

Naitanui is, by the information revealed in the Eagles’ recent performances, clearly West Coast’s most important player. Over the weekend, the Eagles came close to losing to a side outside of the eight for the second-straight week, as the midfield has been comprehensively outplayed. The near-loss to Melbourne was the culmination of a host of issues which have been building throughout the year: poor inside midfield play save from Matt Priddis, poor play from the small forward line, and an inability to stop opposition teams from getting on top for long patches of games. The Eagles lost the hitout-to-advantage count to Melbourne by seven despite playing a dual-pronged line up to combat Max Gawn.

Earlier in the year, the Eagles were winning clearance battles decisively. Outside of shellackings at the hands of Hawthorn (-8), Sydney (-11) and Geelong (-12), the Eagles had a positive clearance differential in every game that Naitanui played. From Round 13 onwards, they’ve lost it every week (except, funnily enough, against Melbourne). There’s no way to empirically test it, but in my mind, Naitanui looms as critical to West Coast’s ability to salvage something from a somewhat disappointing season.

3. Sydney Swans
For Sydney, an injury list of 11 names is of no great concern. There are only three players who’ve played a significant part in Sydney’s 2016 season that are currently unavailable. Kurt Tippett remains on the long-term injury list, where he’ll stay for the next four weeks, while Jarryd McVeigh’s groin injury is listed as a test for this weekend. Jeremy Laidler is important as revealed by his 13 games played despite Sydney’s young talent boom, but has a somewhat fungible skillset.

Tippett’s injury has been significant, given he’s become such a unique player in 2016. His return, in time for the start of Sydney’s finals campaign, will be a significant boost. Similarly, Sam Reid, who has spent the whole season on the sidelines, will be a boon for the Swans, who’ve relied upon Callum Sinclair as a deep forward flanker as a foil to Lance Franklin.

Otherwise, Sydney’s injury list reads long, but is short on players of note for their 2016 prospects. Everything is coming up Sydney, it seems.

2. Greater Western Sydney Giants
Like the Swans, it’s a case of quality versus quantity for the Giants. There’s ten names on their injury list, equal with North Melbourne and behind Sydney, but there are arguably no first choice players sitting on the short-term injury list. Jack Steele (10), Jacob Hopper (6) and Aidan Corr (3) have played 19 games between them for the year, and while they’d be walk ups on most teams, the strength of the Giants is such that they can’t break in sustainably.

Rhys Palmer has become a fringe-22 player this season, although as the Giants creep closer to a maiden finals birth his 121 games of experience would stand him in good stead. Ditto Ryan Griffen, who has been laid low by injury a couple of times this season. Caleb Marchbank’s shoulder injury has robbed the Giants of an opportunity to show him off to potential Victorian suitors, but it won’t cost them much in a relative sense given the strength of their back six.

The Giants’ ranking could fall through the floor if ruckman Shane Mumford’s ankle complaint turns out to be more significant than the club is letting on. After his season-ending ankle injury in 2015, the Giants looked a shadow of themselves – this year, they have more options in the ruck, but would still be a weaker unit without his inside presence.

1. Adelaide Crows
Adelaide have used 27 players this season, a league-wide low, and have a near-pristine injury list heading into the final five rounds of the year. A dozen of their line up has played all 17 games, and five have played in 15 or 16. It’s quite remarkable when you think about it.

The weekend just passed saw the Crows get cramped up by the Cats for the second time this year, but critically saw key position pillars Taylor Walker and Daniel Talia spent time on the bench with late niggles. It would appear that neither will spend much, if any, time on the sidelines.

At the end of it all, the Crows have outperformed expectations by virtue of their tactics and the play of their players, but equally, they’ve had an incredibly fortunate run of it with injuries. It’s not dissimilar to West Coast’s 2015 season: the Eagles used 35 players all up, but 14 players played in 22 games or more of their 25-game season.

In a season as close as the one we’re having, the state of each team’s playing stocks looms as critical to their respective chances. Adelaide have been able to outperform and put themselves in the frame for a top two finish, while the ‘Roos are spluttering to the August finish line with a list in need of a substantial tune up.

The Hawks had some struggles early but look set to enter the final phase of their fourpeat chance with most of their players available, while the reappearance of West Coast’s top flight ruckman could give their midfield the spark it needs.

Little things like this could end up being the difference in such a tightly run season.