- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Hello Roarers, and welcome once again this week to The Roar’s AFL Expert Tips! With just five, count ’em, five weeks left of the home-and-away season, things are really starting to heat up both on the AFL ladder and here in our tipping comp.
I had a handy enough week last week despite being part of the mass mental fugue that made so many of us think tipping Essendon would be a good idea (I’ve tipped them twice this year and in retrospect I have no idea why) – how about you?
This week is headlined by a massive game on Friday night between Geelong, who are coming off a streak-smashing win against Adelaide last weekend, and the Western Bulldogs, who are reeling after the double-blow of losing Jack Redpath and Mitch Wallis to season-ending injuries – oh, and losing to St Kilda too.
With absolutely no good reason to do so, I’m going to be bold and tip the Bulldogs. Why? Well, last week I tipped the Cats on the principle that I thought Adelaide should probably win. Matches between the top eight have so regularly surprised me this year that I’m now deliberately tipping against my instincts. It worked last week, but will it work again? Probably not, but hey, it’s worth a shot.
The other big game this round is North Melbourne vs St Kilda on Saturday night. I’ve said on a few occasions this year that the top eight is already locked up and this will be the match that either proves me right or leaves the door ever so slightly ajar. On top of that, it’s my own beloved Roos and it’s the Brent Harvey game – yes, it’s going to be an emotional night for yours truly. Tipping North.
The seven other matches of the week all have fairly clear favourites – GWS over Richmond, Hawthorn over Carlton, Port Adelaide over Brisbane, Sydney over Fremantle and Adelaide over Essendon all seem like formalities.
Collingwood vs West Coast also most likely seems like a win to the Eagles, but they’ve been in fairly average form this past fortnight and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them drop one. I’m tipping the Eagles but not with a great deal of confidence.
Melbourne should be the winners over Gold Coast given the match is being played at the MCG but the Dees, for all that I like about them, just don’t inspire confidence. They’re more than capable on any given week of playing just really awful footy. Again, tipping without confidence.
My Lock of the Week? It has to be the Crows to get back on the winners list against Essendon at home – that seems like a potential smashing. The Giants over Richmond tempted me here as well but they let me down a few weeks ago when I locked them in to beat Collingwood.
Michael DiFabrizio
There’s some heavy favourites in most matches this week and I’m not going to take the step of tipping for an upset.
Collingwood vs West Coast has some upset potential about it, particularly with the Eagles coming off narrow wins against Carlton and Melbourne. They’ve been lucky and that luck could run out.
I’m not ready to tip against them, as the finals-bound team should be able to account for the Pies, but it’s one where I wouldn’t be surprised if it went the other way.
North Melbourne vs St Kilda could also be interesting, but a loss would simply be devastating for the Roos’ finals chances and I can’t see them playing with their guard down – especially with the Brent Harvey milestone to play for as well.
BJ Conkey
Geelong were impressive at the Cattery last round, while the Bulldogs will still be coming to grips with a loss to St Kilda and the sickening sight of seeing Mitch Wallis’ leg and the pain it caused him.
Geelong have a strong record against the Bulldogs and there’ll be extra incentive to win for Jimmy Bartel’s 300th and Corey Enright’s record-breaker.
West Coast don’t have a great record against the Magpies at the MCG but it’s been two years since the sides last played at the venue.
The Eagles have been winning games but not convincingly, but a win is a win and with a top four spot on the line they will be hungry to break their MCG-Magpies hoodoo.
North vs the Saints is a tough game to pick. If the Roos didn’t get over the top of the Pies last week I would have no hesitation in going with the Saints, but that was a big win in the context of North’s season.
With Brent ‘Boomer’ Harvey breaking the all-time games record, the Kangaroos will reflect on his commitment this week and the shinboner spirit stories will be inspiring. Apparently Harvey has never lost a milestone match with North.
Whatever happens this should be a close one, especially if Nick Riewoldt (pending his knee) and Jack Steven have blinders again.
| Round 19 | BJ Conkey | Michael | Josh | The Crowd |
| GEE v WB | GEE | GEE | WB | GEE |
| GWS v RIC | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| HAW v CAR | HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW |
| COL v WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE |
| BL v PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| NTM v STK | NTM | NTM | NTM | NTM |
| MEL v GCS | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| FRE v SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| ADL v ESS | ADL | ADL | ADL | ADL |
| Last round | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Total | 110 | 108 | 107 | 109 |