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Preview of AFL round-19 matches (all times AEST):
FRIDAY, July 29
Geelong v Western Bulldogs at Simonds Stadium 7.50pm
Head to Head: Cats 99 Bulldogs 55 Drawn 2
Last clash: Round 13 2016 – Cats 16.4 (100) bt Bulldogs 5.13 (43) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Cats $1.28 Bulldogs $3.85
William Hill: Cats $1.30 Bulldogs $3.60
The Bulldogs sure know how to do injuries. Several Bulldogs players burst into tears last week when hearing the screams of injured teammate Mitch Wallis as he was being escorted into an ambulance. Wallis (broken leg) and Jack Redpath (ruptured ACL) were big casualties to come out of the shock loss to St Kilda, with the seventh-placed Bulldogs now facing a major battle to lock down a top-four berth.
All up, the Bulldogs have lost five players this week, but Jake Stringer and Luke Dahlhaus return in what is a timely boost. Geelong reminded everyone of their premiership credentials with a convincing win over Adelaide last week.
Key: Milestone motivation – With Corey Enright (326 games) set to become the new Geelong games record holder, and Jimmy Bartel to play his 300th, Geelong will have plenty of inspiration.
Tip: Cats by 22 points
SATURDAY, July 30
GWS v Richmond at Manuka Oval 1.45pm
Head to Head: Giants 0 Tigers 5 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 14 2015 – Tigers 10.18 (78) bt Giants 10.9 (69) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Giants $1.12 Tigers $6.75
William Hill: Giants $1.10 Tigers $7
The GWS bandwagon is filling up fast, with the fledgling club an excellent chance to finish in the top four.
The Giants have never beaten Richmond before, but they should break that drought this week. The Tigers (7-10) have already turned their attention towards next year, and coach Damien Hardwick was scathing at how his players turned up their toes in last week’s 70-point loss to Hawthorn.
Tigers midfielder Dustin Martin is in scintillating form but GWS boast match-winners all over the field, and should cruise to their third win on the trot. The return of Ryan Griffen will further bolster the Giants.
Key: Stopping Mummy – Giants ruckman Shane Mumford was influential last week with 49 hit-outs and 10 tackles against Port. If he puts in a repeat performance, Richmond are likely to be on the end of a big loss.
Tip: Giants by 48 points
Hawthorn v Carlton at Aurora Stadium 2.10pm
Head to Head: Hawks 61 Blues 102 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 23 2015 – Hawks 17.11 (113) bt Blues 8.8 (56) at the MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Hawks $1.06 Blues $10
William Hill: Hawks $1.06 Blues $9
A six-match losing run doesn’t make for pretty reading, but there’s been plenty to like about Carlton over the past fortnight, as they have battled to tight defeats to West Coast and Sydney.
Blues young gun Patrick Cripps continued his hot form with 32 possessions against the Swans, with Carlton coming ever so close to notching a huge upset in enemy territory.
Hawthorn are hitting top form at the right time of the season, and they thrashed Carlton by 138 points just one year ago – Carlton have become a far more competitive unit under rookie coach Brendon Bolton, and this game will be a measuring stick as to how far they’ve progressed.
Key: Complacency – On paper, Hawthorn will thrash Carlton. But if they drop their guard, the plucky Blues could mount a spirited bid for victory.
Tip: Hawks by 49 points
Collingwood v West Coast at MCG 4.35pm
Head to Head: Magpies 22 Eagles 24 Drawn 1
Last clash: Round 6 2016 – Eagles 18.16 (124) bt Magpies 9.8 (62) at Domain Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Magpies $2.25 Eagles $1.68
William Hill: Magpies $2.25 Eagles $1.65
Talk about lucky. Most people are still scratching their heads as to how West Coast managed to escape with a six-point win over Melbourne last week. The Demons won the inside-50m count 66-37, but they couldn’t finish the job in front of goal. Some experts are wondering whether West Coast are the worst ever team to be 12-5 and they have looked shaky without again absent star ruckman Nic Naitanui.
Collingwood were dealt a triple blow when Alex Fasolo, Jarryd Blair, and Ben Sinclair were ruled out through injury.
Key: Ground coverage – The Eagles tend to struggle at the wider and shorter MCG. If the Magpies can get around the ‘Weagles Web’, an upset looms.
Tip: Eagles by 26 points
North Melbourne v St Kilda at Etihad Stadium 7.25pm
Head to Head: Kangaroos 76 Saints 76 Drawn 2
Last clash: Round 7 2016 – Kangaroos 11.16 (82) bt Saints 11.9 (75) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Kangaroos $1.55 Saints $2.50
William Hill: Kangaroos $1.55 Saints $2.45
Take a bow Brent Harvey.
The man fondly known as ‘Boomer’ will break the all-time AFL/VFL games record this weekend when he runs out for game No.427.
North Melbourne snapped their five-match losing run with a 40-point win over Collingwood last week but there’s still huge question marks surrounding their premiership credentials.
St Kilda beat premiership fancies Geelong earlier in the season and knocked off the highly-fancied Bulldogs last week. The Saints almost beat North Melbourne in round seven, and they’ll be pushing hard to cause an upset in this one. The Kangaroos have been bolstered by the return of key forward Jarrad Waite.
Key: Distractions – There’s been plenty of hype surrounding Harvey this week. Will it prove to be a costly distraction, or the inspiration needed to kick North Melbourne back into form? Only time will tell.
Tip: Kangaroos by 19 points
Brisbane v Port Adelaide at the Gabba 7.25pm
Head to Head: Lions 15 Power 14 Drawn 2
Last clash: Round 7 2016 – Power 21.10 (136) bt Lions 7.17 (59) at Adelaide Oval
Tab Sportsbet: Lions $6 Power $1.14
William Hill: Lions $5 Power $1.17
The pressure valve on Brisbane coach Justin Leppitsch was released following last week’s win over Essendon but he still faces a fight to retain his job in 2017, making games like this one highly important.
Port’s slim finals hopes were extinguished in last week’s loss to GWS and with nothing but pride to play for now, the Power might find motivation hard to come by. Brisbane would love to add another win here but with star ruckman Stefan Martin being rested, Brisbane will find it tough to win.
Key: Overcoming the bogey – Adelaide Oval has been a graveyard for Brisbane, with the Lions losing all three of their matches there by 77, 87, and 113 points. Can they overcome the hoodoo?
Tip: Power by 34 points
SUNDAY, July 31
Melbourne v Gold Coast at MCG 1.10pm
Head to Head: Demons 5 Suns 3 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 7 2016 – Demons 24.16 (160) bt Suns 14.3 (87) at Metricon Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Demons $1.22 Suns $4.50
William Hill: Demons $1.17 Suns $5
The Demons are still kicking themselves after failing to come away with the win against West Coast in Perth last week. Melbourne dominated most of the key stats, and should have won by about four goals but inaccurate kicking and some poor decision-making at crucial moments saw them walk away with a six-point loss. Nevertheless, the signs are good for the Demons, who have made steady progress this year.
Gold Coast have been ravaged by injuries all year, but three wins in their past four matches have given them something to smile about.
Key: Cashing in – Melbourne’s forwards had plenty of supply last week. If they can cash in this time around, a big win could be on the cards.
Tip: Demons by 29 points
Fremantle v Sydney at Domain Stadium 3.20pm
Head to Head: Dockers 14 Swans 16 Drawn 1
Last clash: Qualifying final 2015 – Dockers 10.9 (69) bt Swans 7.18 (60) at Domain Stadium Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $4.50 Swans $1.22
William Hill: Dockers $4.25 Swans $1.23
Domain Stadium will be in Pav frenzy this Sunday when retiring Dockers forward Matthew Pavlich notches his 350-game milestone. When Pavlich decided to play on at the end of last season, he was dreaming about going out with a flag. Instead, Fremantle are likely to finish 16th after snaring just three wins for the season. Sydney are well in the hunt for a top-two berth, and they’ll be aiming to earn a slice of revenge after losing to Fremantle in last year’s qualifying final.
Key: Ruck dominance – With Sydney missing preferred ruck duo Calllum Sinclair and Kurt Tippett, Fremantle’s Zac Clarke has the perfect chance to assert his authority.
Tip: Swans by 19 points
Adelaide v Essendon at Adelaide Oval 4.40pm
Head to Head: Crows 16 Bombers 18 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 20 2015 – Crows 27.9 (171) bt Bombers 8.11 (59) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Crows $1.02 Bombers $16
William Hill: Crows $1.01 Bombers $15
Essendon obviously don’t like favouritism, with the Bombers blowing the chance to notch victory No.2 in last week’s loss to Brisbane their pain is set to continue this week against an Adelaide outfit fighting to lock down a top-four berth.
Percentage is set to be crucial for teams jostling for positions within the top eight, so expect the Crows to be ruthless in this one as they attempt to rack up a triple-figure win. The loss of skipper Taylor Walker to an ankle injury is a blow, but Adelaide possess enough firepower to well and truly cover for him.
Key: The spread – Adelaide had 14 goalkickers last year when they beat Essendon by 112 points. A repeat effort will result in another big victory.
Tip: Crows by 67 points
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