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Injury has once again robbed us of an excellent on-paper match up, as our lone top eight play off for Round 19 moves from mouth-watering to somewhat middling.
Still, the Cats have been up-and-down, and the Dogs have done some interesting things at the selection table. Let’s get to it.
First up, permit me to yank out my soapbox. Mitch Wallis and Jack Redpath suffered season-ending injuries in Round 18; Wallis breaking both bones in his leg and Redpath injuring the ACL in his left knee for the second time.
These are not good things.
However, I do sense that the football media, so keen to up antes, may have gone too far this time. Reports of Wallis’ injury in particular, and the impact on his teammates, were described like someone had died in the middle of Etihad Stadium. Take this passage from an article published across News Limited, written by Tim Hodges who was working with the ABC’s Saturday night team.
Hodges was down in the rooms, and witnessed this all first hand – a tough task, undoubtedly. But this is, well, I think it speaks for itself.
A football club was in shock, as a broken star couldn’t be helped for his torture.
The more ambulance staff attempted to move the trolley he was on, the more the anguish.
These were haunting sounds, which will live with these young Dogs forever.
And that’s when Gerard [Whately, who was hosting the ABC’s post game coverage] threw down to the rooms.
Amid the silence, screams and tears, there was the horror.
It was gut-wrenching.
And watching grown men cry – including injured captain Bob Murphy, who himself has been through so much – was truly devastating.
The tears were contagious.
Wallis was eventually moved towards the ambulance and taken away. His family beside him mortified.
Now, I love my football as much as anyone. Like equating footballers with diggers going to battle, it just doesn’t sit right that the reporting of Wallis’ injury has taken on something of a histrionic tone. It carried on into the lead up to tonight’s game, and it spread to a different outlet.
Doggies on the road. In "camp" tonight in Geelong ahead of Friday night blockbuster. Big week, troops together, interstate feel …
— Mark Stevens (@Stevo7AFL) July 28, 2016
Anyway that’s my two cents. Injuries suck, but let’s have some levity.
The absence of Wallis and Redpath, as well as some additional niggles picked up by Dogs’ players on Saturday night, mean they travel 30 minutes down the road to Geelong missing a host of their first-choice players. Indeed, their back six, the rock of coach Luke Beveridge’s strangling defensive structures, is missing five of it’s starters: Robert Murphy, Dale Morris, Matthew Boyd, Matt Suckling and Marcus Adams (who emerged as critical at the start of this season).
Morris, Boyd and Suckling are new injuries, which have turned a game that looked well within the grasp of the Dogs to one where they may struggle to keep up with their opponent. Skilled Stadium’s narrow wings suit Beveridge’s structures better than their usual home at Etihad; the Dogs kept Geelong to 72 points in Round 16 last season, their second lowest tally at the ground behind North Melbourne (67) and Fremantle (60).
Interestingly, the Cats and Dogs have both played their opponents well at their respective home grounds: both Geelong and Footscray have allowed the opposition to score 70.6 points per game when playing at Kardinia Park and Etihad, respectively. That’s almost four goals beneath the league average score this year. Both sides like to press up, and have the narrower fields that make this tactic successful.
As something of a counter, the Dogs have gone small, with a forward line that looks quite similar to the style Hawthorn have been trotting out in 2016. Tom Boyd is the lone big man, to be flanked by a fleet of midsized and small forwards, in what could be seen as a direct counter to Geelong’s taller, slower defensive unit.
The Dogs like to throw their midfielders around too, so we could expect to see Marcus Bontempelli spend a bit of time inside 50.
For the Cats, Lachie Henderson’s second successive week on the sidelines with concussion is, in this game, probably more a help than hindrance. Adding Henderson to a backline already boasting Tom Lonergan, Harry Taylor and Jake Kolodjashnij would have been too big, and doubly so given the Cats remain intent on squeezing Rhys Stanley, Zac Smith and Mark Blicavs into the same team.
In their drive to find their most effective forward set up, the Cats have dropped Shane Kersten, despite Kersten putting in a decent year to date. It’s hard to argue with a 12-5 record, but as we get closer to September, the Cats will be wanting to have a system in place that can keep pace with Hawthorn, GWS, Adelaide, West Coast and arguably Sydney (who have a lower Offensive Efficiency Rating than the Cats, but who have played three games in conditions not amenable to scoring).
With the Dogs’ absentees, tonight might represent the best opportunity the Cats will have to try a few new things against an opponent that it will potentially face at the pointy end of the year.
One area where the Dogs might think they’re a chance of sticking with the Cats is in the midfield. The Western Bulldogs play through the middle like Collingwood, St Kilda and Carlton played against the Cats as their main mode of operation: swarming numbers in tight, with an emphasis on creating something of a scrap. Stopping Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood is proving impossible, but the rest of Geelong’s midfield is vulnerable to this style. It is, at the very least, something to watch out for early.
Otherwise, this is looking like a sound victory to the Cats – a shame given it was by far match of the round this time a week ago. The key question will be whether the Dogs can break Geelong’s press and expose their lumbering forward line with their more nimble group. I don’t see it, so I’ll pick the Cats by five goals.
That’s my Friday night forecast, and my Friday night soapbox for good measure, what’s yours?