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Preston’s previews: NRL Round 21

Ben Barba, in happier times. (AAP Image/Craig Golding)
Roar Guru
29th July, 2016
2

As the season draws to a close there is still plenty of competition for spots in the top eight, and there are several key clashes in Round 21 which could help to determine the final outcome. Let’s check them out!

Last week’s tips – 7/8, running tip total – 98/144

Roosters vs Broncos
It’s ridiculous to think that this match is a 50-50 contest given the Roosters sit 15th on the ladder and the Broncos sixth, but such has been the recent form of the two teams.

Although the Roosters have lost six consecutive matches, they have played some excellent football and there is an argument that they should have won matches against both the Dogs and Eels if not for controversial calls.

Brisbane’s form has been horrendous, winning just two of eight through the State of Origin period. Ben Hunt is seriously struggling and the rest of the side isn’t doing too much better.

With the Origin period over and the club now in real jeopardy of missing the finals if their slide doesn’t stop, this match has become a must-win for the Broncos and I believe they will answer the call.

Tip: Broncos 1-12

Dogs vs Dragons
The Dogs were humbled by the Cowboys 36-0 in Round 20 to cast serious aspersions over their premiership credentials, but prior to that they enjoyed a solid run of four victories, which started against the Dragons in Round 14.

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Des Hasler’s strategy in bringing both Sam Kasiano and Tony Williams into the action at the same point in time has proved a masterstroke.

The Dragons are the second-worst team in the competition, narrowly eclipsing a Knights side that has won just one match in 2016. The Red V attack is non-existent, which means the quality of their defence is irrelevant.

It’s not as simple as making personnel changes either. Whether Benji Marshall or Josh McCrone has taken the reins at halfback this season, the result has been the same – sideways football that is uninspiring at best. That suggests a lack of direction from coach Paul McGregor.

That said, Gareth Widdop and in particular Mitch Rein have been in atrocious form of late and their heads should be the first to roll if the slump continues.

Tip: Dogs 13+

Warriors vs Panthers
Warriors coach Andrew McFadden has been savaged in recent weeks for his use of Tui Lolohea – or lack thereof. Fortunately commonsense has prevailed and the Warriors’ second-best attacking player will feature at fullback. The Warriors also have an excellent record at Mt Smart this season, winning five of seven fixtures at the venue.

The Panthers continue to surprise in the midst of change. While Nathan Cleary has been excellent, Bryce Cartwright remains a suspect selection at five-eighth. His attacking prowess is undeniable, but his lateral movement in defence has been exploited recently, and while his unconventional ball playing can certainly produce results, it also creates plenty of unnecessary turnovers for the Panthers.

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Tip: Warriors 1-12

Eels vs Tigers
While the Eels are boosted by the return of enforcer Beau Scott, morale will be their key concern after last week’s loss officially ruled them out of finals calculations. Parramatta do have an excellent record at ANZ this season, with four out of four victories, including a Round 4 win over the Tigers.

The critics are still out on the Tigers and head coach Jason Taylor. Last week’s victory over the Dragons was nothing to celebrate – they are an awful football team and hooker Mitch Rein produced one of the worst dummyhalf performances I have ever seen.

If the Tigers can dominate the play the ball they will win this match.

Attitude and motivation are the key determinants for this fixture – it’s also why the Tigers are favourites with the bookies, there is simply too much at stake.

Tip: Tigers 1-12

Cowboys vs Storm
Johnathan Thurston’s absence could not have come at a worse time. While the Cowboys can’t be bundled out of the top four this round, a loss here creates dangerous waters.

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The Cowboys killed the Dogs last week and have shown excellent form when their Origin players have backed up, but no JT against the Storm is worrying.

The Storm continue to march on, now sporting four consecutive victories. With Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk in this team, and support form the likes of Blake Green and Cameron Munster, Melbourne should be able to topple the 1300SMILES Stadium curse.

Tip: Storm 1-12

Souths vs Raiders
Hopelessly out-of-form after seven straight losses, Souths’ finals hopes were ended by Manly last week.

It’s hard to see a way out for Souths – their gamble on Sam Burgess has failed, after his average season, but more importantly, the quality that was moved on to accommodate him has savaged their depth.

The Raiders have emerged as a genuine premiership threat and alongside Cronulla are the most entertaining team in the competition.

With a huge, mobile forward pack and a backline that breaks tackles for fun, they could rack up a cricket score here.

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Tip: Raiders 13+

Manly vs Knights
Having salvaged their season, Manly must keep winning to keep their finals hopes alive – so this match against the Knights couldn’t come at a better time. Dependent on results, the Sea Eagles could jump to ninth on the ladder.

The Knights, much like the Roosters, have been on the up for several weeks now. I still can’t see them winning this match, but they have shown enough to suggest they could pick up wins against Souths and the Dragons in the final two rounds of the season. However, they will still finish with the spoon.

Tip: Manly 13+

Titans vs Sharks
Gold Coast are coming off two big wins and a bye, so spirits will be high. It’s more of the same for the Titans – their halves have been terrific all season, and will again be the focal point.

The Sharkies are looking to make it 16 on the trot when they travel to CBUS Super Stadium. With no injury concerns at the club, and Nu Brown now slotting in brilliantly as a utility, their attack is second to none.

Tip: Sharks 1-12

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