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For the second year in a row, Super Rugby will hold its pinnacle event in the city of Wellington with a favoured Hurricanes outfit at the helm, as the Lions make the long trip from Johannesburg for their first ever grand final. Catch all the thrilling live scores, highlights and action on The Roar from 5:35pm (AEST).
It’s fitting that the top two sides in Super Rugby for 2016 have made the final, with the Canes edging out the Lions by a single point in the overall standings.
Without a Super Rugby title for either side, this will actually be the fifth time in six years that a team will win their maiden championship.
The Hurricanes were forced to battle through one of, if not the, tightest conferences in the competition’s history, with the top four sides in New Zealand finishing within three points of each other and the same amount of wins.
The Lions have had a softer South African conference to contend with, racking up 11 wins as well, but struggled against the Kiwi sides, losing three of their four games for the season against NZ opposition.
The poor old Lions don’t have an encouraging record against the ‘Canes coming into this one, having won just three of 17 games in Super Rugby history.
Even worse, the Lions have lost every single game they’ve ever played in Wellington.
To add to that, these two sides did play each other already this year, when the Canes rolled over the Lions in a very dominant display, taking the cake 50-17 on the road in South Africa.
Despite the historical numbers that aren’t so friendly to look at, the Lions will be riding a huge wave of confidence into the final.
The South Africans beat out the much more fancied Crusaders and Highlanders in the quarter and semifinals respectively to earn their spot in the big one.
Team News
For the home side, injury has plagued Chris Boyd’s men, with three players being given until kickoff to prove their fitness, meaning the Canes have been carrying an incomplete side through preparation.
Skipper Dane Coles awaits assessment on his damaged ribs after missing the semi-final against the Chiefs.
Coles has been paired up with Ricky Riccitelli in the starting line up as a replacement if the captain can’t make the cut.
Flanker Callum Gibbins and prop Reggie Goodes are also under a fitness cloud as they look to overcome achilles and concussion issues respectively before kickoff.
Mike Kainga and Tony Lamborn have been brought into the squad as possible replacements if need be.
For the Lions, coach Johan Ackermann has made just the one alteration to his side that defeated the Highlanders last week.
Captain Warren Whiteley will make his return to the side after missing the semi-final with a calf injury, meaning Jaco Kriel will drop back into the vice-captain’s role.
Whiteley’s return also means that Ackermann will have to drop his own son, Ruan Ackermann, to the bench for a Super Rugby final. Something you don’t hear everyday.
Prediction
Winning a Super Rugby final away from home is an incredibly difficult task and one that has been completed very few times in the competition’s history.
The Hurricanes have been the overall stronger side throughout the year, but the Lions have continued to prove time and time again that they can hang with the best.
The Canes defence is key today against a Lions side that lead the comp for most tries scored. Incredibly, the Canes are yet to concede a five pointer throughout the finals series, totaling 221 minutes without their line being breached so far.
The Hurricanes may struggle early against the pace and flair of the Lions offence, but once they settle into the game they should get home with a comfortable lead.
Hurricanes to win by 15
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.