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The Rugby Championship is upon us, and with it comes the return of the big question each week. Just a bunch of guys from different dots on the southern hemisphere riffing about the game we love one sizeable question at a time.
But the 2016 edition of the Big Question is a little different in that I’ve finally completed the SANZAAR set. I’ve had a Kiwi and a South African for some time, and both Digger and Harry are back again, but we’re very pleased to welcome an Argentinean voice to the discussion.
You all know him as ‘Nobrain’, though his contributions in these parts – most recently his wonderful interview with young Pumas hooker Julian Montoya – show that his moniker is a long way from the truth. Regardless, we’re thrilled that ‘Nobes’ agreed to join the panel, and we look forward to his perspective and insight throughout The Rugby Championship.
The Crowd, fresh from a Super Rugby tipping triumph, will once again have their say and see if their recent tipping success translates to the international arena.
The Big Question for week one: If the 2016 Rugby Championship is New Zealand’s to lose, who of Argentina, Australia, and South Africa is best placed to challenge? (from Brett)
Nobrain: “Wow! What did I get myself into?
“Thank you all very much. It is an honour to share this panel with such distinguished rugby connoisseurs.
“To answer the big question, it is worth remembering that since the new TRC format was created in 2012 – thus allowing Argentina to become part of it – the All Blacks have lost only on two occasions and tied just one.
“Before I continue let me say that each time the All Blacks lose is an upset. The only tie occurred in the first game against the Wallabies in 2014. The defeats happened in the last match of the same edition against the Springboks, and also the last game against Australia in the short version of 2015.
“Therefore, if we follow the preceding pattern I have to say that the ‘Boks are most likely to take a victory. However, the lately and mysteriously quiet Wallabies can come up with a nice surprise this weekend. The men in black have the tendency to start slowly and increase their intensity and velocity towards the middle of the tournament (where they have three games at home).
“They will gradually but slightly slow down when they get to South Africa after their journey through Argentina.”
Harry Jones: “¡Bienvenido hermano Nobes!
“The kinder, gentler, less-fearsome ‘Boklings have the best chance of challenging the still-mighty and never complacent All Blacks. Not because my new, soft Springbok heroes are better than the old, hard guys. And not because ‘Toetie’ Coetzee has transformed anything or anyone, except to play nicer.
“The only reason is the Wallabies begin with their Bledisloe bully buddies, whilst the Boks host the Jaguares-turned-Pumas on the banks of the Crocodile River, not far from malarial wetlands in Mozambique, and have time to gel before facing New Zealand. Nelspruit is just the place to try to sneak up on the competition.”
Diggercane: “Welcome Juan my brother, Haere Mai, looking forward to your insight this fine International season.
“In short, I really have no idea about the big question. Potentially I am still suffering from the effects of celebrating the ‘Canes ‘by plenty’ maiden triumph but it’s a good question and I am not sure how to weigh it all up.
“Is it a good thing the Wallabies and Pumas have had plenty of time to prepare? Possibly, but then I would have thought having the majority of the squad playing knock out rugby would be better. Will the Lions’ performance add some motivation and confidence to the Springbok camp? I guess that comes down to what Coetzee looks to implement and how quickly it becomes cohesive.
“For me, I would have to say the Wallabies. With a number of experienced players bolstering the squad, what I can only imagine will be a highly motivated squad considering the June results and playing in Sydney, it would be my assumption the Wallabies are the best placed to challenge, especially considering they get first crack at it before the All Blacks have had a chance to go around for 80 minutes. A win in Sydney would make for an interesting second leg in Wellington considering the Cake Tin does not possess the same ‘fortress’ status as Eden Park, though only by about 14 years.”
Brett McKay: “Yes, welcome indeed, Nobes, and you’re already off to a wonderful start.
“I too was thinking it might be South Africa who are best placed to mount the challenge, but looking at the draw, it might actually be the Wallabies after all.
“The ‘Boks aren’t playing New Zealand at Ellis Park, surprisingly, and are only playing the one game at altitude, against the Wallabies in Pretoria. Argentina host South Africa in Salta and the All Blacks at the River Plate in Buenos Aires, before their historic ‘home’ match at Twickenham against the Wallabies.
“So if the Wallabies can get the win this weekend in Sydney, they would fancy their chances for the remaining games. New Zealand in Wellington next weekend would perhaps be the biggest hurdle, though happily, the third Bledisloe Test, at Eden Park, isn’t part of The Rugby Championship. Stranger things have happened!
Nobrain: “Michael Cheika is setting everything up for an ambush. His players are rested physically and mentally. Australia will win by a minimum difference.
“Allister Coetzee will have his hands full with a well rested and highly focused Argentine team. If he expects the Pumas to play like the Jaguares he might find himself swimming in turbulent waters. But if I go for the ‘Boks I do not think I will get more interviews. I have to go with the Pumas. They will win by a very small margin against a rested but rusty team in a sloppy game.”
Harry: “Michael Cheika is all at sea. His diagnoses of the reasons for the horrors of the English Invasion on Aussie soil seem facile (more aggro), and his base game still looks murky and mismatched to personnel. New Zealand by plenty.
“The ‘Boks will cruise, but we are not a great team, yet. Not even good, really. South Africa by some.”
Diggercane: “All Blacks just because, while I will back the Springboks at home”
Brett: Australia to win in Sydney, mostly out of desperation – both the Wallabies’ and my own. We both have to get off to a strong start in our respective competitions with ‘statement’ results in the first game.
And then South Africa in Nelspruit, of which the Mbombela Stadium looks an absolute picture! What a great looking stadium, a slightly smaller scale Suncorp in Brisbane is how I’d describe it.
The Summary
The Verdict
Pretty emphatic for The Crowd in the end, with New Zealand and South Africa taking the votes pretty comfortably.