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First Bledisloe team reveals a changed, but still conservative, game plan

If Michael Cheika goes head to head with the Super Rugby coaches, who wins? (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Roar Guru
18th August, 2016
19

Now that the Wallabies team list for the first Bledisloe Cup Test on Saturday, fans can assess what that might us about Cheika’s game plan.

The observations that leap out at me about the team are as follows.

Firstly, Cheika is placing a high degree of emphasis on experience and continuity, with 21 of the 23-man team having played in the Rugby World Cup last year.

Of those players only Rob Horne did not play in the final due to injury and the only two players to have not played in a Rugby Championship to be selected are Dane Haylett-Petty and Allan Alaatoa. Haylett-Petty was successfully blooded on the right wing with the Wallabies against England and Alaalatoa, who will cover the reserve tight head prop position vacated by Greg Holmes, is the only uncapped player.

Relying on an experienced team seems to be a reasonable thing for Cheika to do in this Test. The Wallabies have pushed New Zealand to two draws in Australia in the last five years with far weaker, injury-ravaged teams than this and managed to beat them in Sydney last year with the bulk of the players who will be on the park on Saturday.

In the case of two bench selections, Mumm and Horne, a lot of fans (including me) may scratch their heads at them winning their positions over newer players who have offered considerably more this Super Rugby season. T

he alternative view may be that since Mumm and Horne are experienced internationals and adequate players from the bench, Cheika doesn’t need to risk exposing more than a couple of new players to the shock and awe New Zealand can create. Keeping new players to one forward and one back, surrounded by more experienced heads, may avoid panic when the Wallabies fall under inevitable New Zealand pressure.

Secondly, I think that the some of Cheika’s selections within the team indicate that he may be aiming to switch from the grinding start/flashy finish approach used last year to trying to get ahead of New Zealand earlier in the game and then hold the lead.

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The selection of Ben McCalman at blindside flanker will move McCalman’s much under-rated strength of running into contact and offloading to create scoring opportunities to the front end of the match. I have seen him demonstrate in several internationals to great effect, including in the Wallabies pool game against Wales in last year’s Rugby World Cup.

McCalman’s running was only shut down by Wales at the cost of a penalty, putting Foley within striking distance to convert three-points. Combined with his famous try-saving tackle on George North, this was worth up to ten points in a nine point ball game.

Moving Fardy to the bench does pose some risks, as he is more of a breakdown and lineout exponent than McCalman, potentially allowing New Zealand more ball early in the match. However, with Hooper and Pocock working in tandem to pilfer New Zealand ball, the impact will likely be minimised and the gains from McCalman’s running exploited.

At the other end of the game when Ardie Savea and Liam Squire come off the bench, the New Zealand lineout will probably weaken, how much by depending on who those players replace. Fardy’s lineout and breakdown skills at that time of the game could well be the best way of limiting the lethal running games of the Savea brothers, with Julian also on the bench, especially as Fardy will be peeved at losing his six jersey and fighting like Ned Kelly at Glenrowan to get it back.

Finally the conservative approach extends to the backs, with Matt Toomua is a good choice to create late plays and apply defensive pressure to New Zealand in place of Giteau or Foley. Horne has his part to play there too, barring injury I think he will be bought on at 13 for Kuridrani in the last five minutes and could be man the thing to shut down any last minute match winning tries by New Zealand.

Of the most likely alternatives, Quade Cooper and Samu Kerevi, I think Cooper has been rightly judged to be too much of a risk so soon back from an extended break. Howeve as a bench player I think Kerevi’s superior running game was a risk the Wallabies could have afforded over Horne’s experience and defence.

Overall given the high stakes, the knowledge that the Wallabies can win this Sydney game with their experienced players. With the opportunity to exploit the very few frailties that this youngish New Zealand side exhibits, I can see why Cheika would have taken less chances with selections during this match.

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