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Canterbury are only masquerading as a top-four team and even if they manage to hang on to that spot going into the finals they won’t win the premiership.
Sixth place would be more realistic for the Bulldogs at the moment, but instead they are fourth. Why? Not so much because of any scintillating form of their own, but mainly because of the recent form slumps experienced by each of last year’s grand finalists, North Queensland and Brisbane.
Both the Cowboys and Broncos, who each recently had a run of four losses in five games, are recovering now. The Cowboys returned to the winning list by belting the Warriors 34-6 on Saturday and the Broncos have gradually improved while winning three in a row.
But they can’t both make the top four. There is still a big chance neither will, but these things have a way of righting themselves and I’ve got to believe the current anomaly will be corrected and one of them will go past Canterbury between now and the end of the regular season.
It will most likely be North Queensland and the key game will obviously be Thursday night’s clash between the Bulldogs and Cowboys at the traditional home of the Bulldogs and the place where they train, Belmore Sports Ground.
It’s a big ask for the Cowboys, due to the fact it’s a five-day turnaround for them and they must travel on top of that. But they are better than Canterbury and this is their chance to prove it.
A win to North Queensland would put their top-four destiny in their own hands, because although a victory would only pull them level with Canterbury on competition points they have a vastly superior for-and-against differential to the Bulldogs.
Even with a win over Canterbury, the Cowboys may still have to beat Gold Coast in the last round to clinch a top-four spot. Admittedly another tough game, but at least it is at home.
The bottom line is that the remaining two rounds are going to give us a very good idea of how strong North Queensland’s defence of the title is going to be once we get to the finals.
There has been a slight hint of a premiership hangover for them a couple of times this season, but nothing too dramatic. Certainly nothing that would suggest they can’t win the competition.
The State of Origin period was difficult for the Cowboys and superstar Johnathan Thurston sustained a hamstring injury soon after that.
Thurston only missed one game, but he was a bit out of sorts for two games after coming back before hitting his straps again in the big win over the Warriors.
Brisbane’s slump was a bit harder to explain. Origin was also tough on them, but just how far backwards they went there for a while couldn’t be put down solely to that.
Key players who weren’t even involved in Origin, notably halves Anthony Milford and Bent Hunt, fell right out of the groove they were previously in.
Even after back-to-back wins over St George Illawarra and Parramatta, the Broncos were still finding their way back when they came up against Canterbury last Thursday. But they were still too good for the Bulldogs, winning 20-10 at home.
The Bulldogs played some dumb football in that one and it is worth noting that the last time they played North Queensland they lost as well, 36-0 in Townsville.
In between those two losses, Canterbury beat the Dragons, 13-10, Newcastle 28-14 and Manly 20-16. Three straight wins, but not all that convincing against a trio of teams who won’t be playing in the finals.
Moment of truth time has arrived for the Bulldogs. They will need to find something they haven’t produced recently if they are to pass the test against the Cowboys.
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