The top eight is set, but the top four is still unclear. What could happen and what is most likely?
Hawthorn’s 25-point loss on Friday night may have seen West Coast Eagles become a possible premiership contender from outside the top four.
However, their 25-point win came with a massive blow to their premiership hopes after scans confirmed Nic Naitanui had ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.
Can the Eagles win without Naitanui?
Friday night’s clash with Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval will prove to be a challenge for the Eagles. Scott Lycett will step up into the number one ruck position, but may not be at 100 per cent after copping a knock to the knee Friday night and a corked thigh the week prior.
Win or lose for the Eagles they will not make top four.
However, a loss from the Crows could potentially knock them out of the top four.
The Crows have a home advantage, but like the Eagles, they also go into the game with one less valuable player. Rory Sloane was offered a one-match ban after striking Port Adelaide’s Brad Ebert high with a closed fist.
It is highly unlikely that the Crows will challenge this ban. If they are unsuccessful Sloane will miss the first final. If they accept the one-match ban Sloane will also become ineligible to win the Brownlow Medal.
A shock loss would mean the Crows could sit in fifth place heading into the finals, given that Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS win. If the Crows win against the Eagles, they will most likely finish in second place.
Although, if the Crows win by 40-plus points more than Sydney wins against Richmond then the Crows will finish in first place based on percentage.
Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney are also at risk of placing fifth if either one lose.
Hawthorn’s 25-point loss to the Eagles also came with an injury blow as their ruckman Jon Ceglar ruptured his ACL. Who will step into the number one ruck position? Ben McEvoy? Or will they continue to use him deep in the forward line and bring in second-year ruckman Marc Pittonet?
Decisions this late in the season could be very costly.
The best case scenario for Hawthorn seems impossible in the race to the finals. Their chances of gaining first position will only occur if they win against Collingwood while Sydney, Adelaide and Geelong lose.
The likely position would be that Hawthorn win against Collingwood resulting in fourth place, which will mean an away qualifying final. If Hawthorn lose against Collingwood it could potentially put them in seventh place if GWS, Western Bulldogs and the Eagles win.
Geelong have proved to be premiership favourites at their best, but have also had shock losses to teams outside the eight.
Geelong are in the race to secure a top two position. This will require a loss from Sydney or Adelaide, or potentially a big percentage boost against Melbourne at Simonds Stadium.
Geelong’s best 22 is still unclear as Jimmy Bartel (managed), Daniel Menzel, Josh Caddy and Nakia Cockatoo (all injured) are expected to put their hands up for selection this week. But who will make way?
Worst case is Geelong lose against Melbourne, which will most likely see them finish fifth. Best case will see Geelong win against Melbourne, resulting in third place and an away qualifying final. Although, if Geelong win by approximately 11 goals more than the Crows do they could finish second on percentage.
Sydney Swans are currently first on the ladder, but are not locked into the top four. To remain in first place, the Swans must win against Richmond and Adelaide cannot gain a percentage gap against the Eagles.
Worst case would be the Swans lose to Richmond while Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS win, this could result in fifth place and hosting an elimination final.
My prediction is as follows.
1. Sydney Swans (host qualifying final)
2. Adelaide Crows (host qualifying final)
3. Geelong Cats (away qualifying final)
4. Hawthorn (away qualifying final)
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.
We’re taking a look at one player from each team that needs to make a difference this week, starting with the ANZAC Day games.
Adelaide's Taylor Walker has thrown his support behind a 'captain's call' in order to prevent umpiring blunders, which the Crows have been on the…
The Channel 9 commentator believes if anyone got a free kick it should have been Essendon for in the back not to Adelaide for…
Controversy has erupted following Essendon's thrilling three-point victory over Adelaide, with an umpire under fire for his decision to not award the Crows a…
Over the next few days, all discussion of Essendon's three-point win over Adelaide will likely centre on the decision, in the final seconds of…
Round 5 of the AFL provided plenty of action, from big scorelines to upset wins and pressure starting to build on some clubs and coaches already.
