The final round of the AFL season is here, with the structure of the first week of the finals set to be decided in some crucial matches this weekend.

The one match that could shape the finals is Friday night’s match between the Adelaide Crows and West Coast Eagles, which will be the first match in the AFL’s premium timeslot not to feature a Victorian team since 2005.

Depending on how the rest of the round unfolds, the Crows could ascend to the top of the ladder with the chance to secure their first minor premiership since 2005, while a loss for the Eagles will just about end their hopes of a home final in any capacity.

» The Roar’s comprehensive guide to the 2016 AFL Finals

The Geelong Cats, Sydney Swans, GWS Giants and Hawthorn will also be keen to secure the coveted double chance, and if all goes to plan, it could come down to the Hawks needing to beat Collingwood to secure a top-four finish.

Here is the preview to Round 23.

Adelaide versus West Coast
If this season has proven anything, the Crows have continued to go from strength to strength despite the adversities faced by the club at the end of last season.

They had tragically lost their coach Phil Walsh and after months of speculation Patrick Dangerfield left the club to return home to Geelong.

And after a tough start to this season fixture-wise, not many though that the Crows would be where they are now, but under first-year coach Don Pyke, the club has the chance to clinch their first minor premiership since 2005.

If they are to beat the West Coast Eagles this Friday night, they’ll have to do it without Rory Sloane, who has been rubbed out for one match for careless conduct on Port Adelaide’s Brad Ebert in last week’s Showdown.

His absence, which rules him out of Brownlow Medal contention, cancels out that of the Eagles’ Nic Naitanui, who suffered a serious knee injury in their win over Hawthorn last Friday night, for which he has undergone a full knee reconstruction.

That has thrown the Eagles’ premiership hopes into massive chaos, and they’ll now need to rely on Scott Lycett to take up the rucking duties for the period in which Naitanui is to miss, and that’s the rest of this season and most of the next.

In the meantime, the Eagles will head to the Oval as underdogs, having lost their previous two matches against the Crows, including in Round 12 this year when they were held scoreless in the final quarter.

It’s all there for the Crows as far as a top two finish is concerned, and they’ll come out all guns blazing.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 25 points.

Geelong versus Melbourne
Depending on the outcome of the above match, the Geelong Cats could enter their match against Melbourne with the chance to take top spot on the ladder for at least three hours while the rest of the round unfolds.

Chris Scott’s men enjoyed a regulation ten-goal victory over the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba last Sunday afternoon and will be expected to do the same against a Melbourne side that has nothing to play for but pride this Saturday.

The Dees’ faint finals chances were finally extinguished when they were beaten by Carlton by 20 points, but in what will be Paul Roos’ final match as coach, they will be out to spoil the Cats’ top-four hopes.

Still, the season can only be looked at as another one of improvement, with their ten wins so far being their best return in a decade.

They’ll be fired up by their most recent visit to Simonds Stadium, which saw the Dees pull off a remarkable 24-point victory, burying the demons of past failures at the ground which included a 186-point humiliation late in the 2011 season.

The Cats certainly won’t have forgotten that defeat and they’ll be out to not only make Melbourne pay, but also boost their chances of a higher finish on the ladder come the end of the round.

For the hosts, Jimmy Bartel is a chance to return after being rested from the trip to Brisbane last Sunday, and his experience will be valuable as the Cats also seek to win their first premiership since 2011.

As for the Dees, a win to finish off the Paul Roos era will give incoming coach Simon Goodwin with a platform with which to work on when he officially takes the clipboard in round 1, 2017.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 40 points.

Essendon versus Carlton
The most challenging season in the history of the Essendon Football Club will finally come to an end when they face Carlton at the MCG this Saturday afternoon.

When twelve of their best players were wiped out for the season as a result of the supplements scandal, not many gave them a chance of winning a single match for the year.

Despite the adversities faced by the Bombers this year, the club has managed to register two wins for the season and will be out to finish the year with a third against a Carlton side that has struggled in the second half of the season but last week broke a nine-match losing streak by beating Melbourne at the MCG.

It marked their seventh win for the season and this weekend they have the chance to complete the double over the Bombers for the first time since 2001, having already defeated them by 15 points in Round 6.

Though they will only be going for win number eight on Saturday, it would still mark a massive season of improvement for the Blues, who won just four games last year, had their list turned over since then and haven’t had captain Marc Murphy play since their shock victory over the Geelong Cats in Round 10.

As for the Bombers, their final game for the season will see them pay tribute to the ten top-up players recruited in the wake of the suspensions handed out to twelve of their best players.

Of the ten, only Matt Dea and James Kelly appear likely to play on next season, while Mathew Stokes has retired and won’t feature again.

It also remains to be seen whether Adam Cooney, who played his 250th game last week against the Western Bulldogs, will play his final match, the 2008 Brownlow Medallist having announced his retirement this month.

The Bombers are still with a chance to avoid the wooden spoon but would have to beat Carlton by a considerable margin then hope that the Brisbane Lions lose to St Kilda the following day to avoid it.

However, the Blues, buoyed by their win over Melbourne last week, should start favourites and thus prove too strong.

Prediction: Carlton by 10 points.

Sydney versus Richmond
Depending on the outcome of the match between the Adelaide Crows and West Coast Eagles on Friday night, the Swans will enter Saturday night’s match against Richmond simply needing to win to clinch the minor premiership.

Though they will be heavily favoured to beat Richmond, it will not come easy, given the Tigers have won their last three against the Swans including a thrilling after-the-siren, one-point victory at the MCG back in Round 8.

The defeat counted as one of four by ten points or less for the Swans; had that result, among others, not happened John Longmire’s men would have had top spot wrapped up and thus with nothing to play for this weekend.

Additionally, the Tigers also won at ANZ Stadium in Round 23, 2014, but on that occasion Damien Hardwick’s men had everything to play for as they had the chance to seal the eighth and final berth in September that season.

Now, with nothing but pride to play for, the Tigers can spoil the Swans’ finals preparations and lay a platform for season 2017, when they hope to return to the finals after missing out for the first time since 2012.

But while they will be buoyed by recent history against the Swans, expect the red and white to show no mercy as they gear up for a club-record seventh consecutive finals campaign.

Captain Kieren Jack will return after missing last week’s win over the Kangaroos due to injury, while Lance Franklin should be fit to play despite concerns over a hip complaint early on.

Should he take his place, Buddy will once again line up on Alex Rance, who has been a shining light in what has been a disappointing season for the Tigers.

If Buddy gets on a roll early, then it could get very ugly.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 45 points.

Gold Coast versus Port Adelaide
The Gold Coast Suns and Port Adelaide, two teams that had high expectations in the pre-season but have underperformed instead, will finish their seasons at Metricon Stadium this Saturday night in what promises to be a spiteful affair.

Suns fans have had to wait until the final round to let their feelings towards foundation player Charlie Dixon be known, but it will definitely be worth the wait if he gets up for the clash against his old side, the 25-year-old having missed last week’s Showdown loss to the Adelaide Crows due to an ankle injury.

It has been yet another frustrating year for the Power with injuries and the absence of Angus Monfries and Paddy Ryder hurting their bid to return to the finals. However, once they get their full arsenal back there will be no excuses.

The Suns have also disappointed in 2016, since starting the season with three straight victories the club have barely doubled that tally to be sitting on six wins and in 15th place on the ladder.

What hasn’t helped was the five-week suspension handed to defender Steven May for a crude bump on Stefan Martin against the Brisbane Lions in Round 4 (the Suns lost all five matches which he missed), and the shoulder injury suffered by captain Gary Ablett Jr, also against the Lions, in Round 16.

They’ll certainly welcome the return home after spending the past fortnight at Etihad Stadium, in which they lost to Essendon by six points and Collingwood by 71 points on either side of a six-day break which they spent in Melbourne.

History is against the Suns, who haven’t beaten the Power since their shock maiden victory in round 5, 2011; in addition, the Power have never lost on the Gold Coast and will be going for the Queensland double, having also beaten the Lions by 94 points at the Gabba in Round 19.

But I have a feeling that could change this Saturday night.

Prediction: Gold Coast Suns by 16 points.

North Melbourne versus GWS
By the time the GWS Giants enter Etihad Stadium for their first ever Saturday night match in Victoria, they’ll know exactly where they stand as far as their top four chances are concerned.

If the Crows, Cats and Swans win their above matches as expected, all the Giants need to do is simply to beat North Melbourne, which they have never done, and they’ll reside in the top four for at least 20 hours.

Then, they’ll be hoping that Hawthorn loses to Collingwood the next day, a result which would see the triple-reigning premiers finish fifth on the ladder and thus throw them head-first into a sudden death home semi-final.

That would see the Giants finish fourth and if the Swans ultimately finish first, they’ll play their eastern neighbours in a qualifying final at ANZ Stadium in what could loom as the biggest AFL match in Sydney since the 1996 preliminary final.

They’ll face a North Melbourne side that has won just three times since starting the season with nine straight wins, but their effort against the Swans last week couldn’t be faulted as they went down by just nine points in a hard-fought contest.

Also, the Giants side the Roos will face will pose a different threat to the one that have lost their five meetings by an average of 74.8 points, including a 129-point thrashing way back in round 2, 2012 and a 56-point loss in Round 12 last year.

Ultimately, whether the Giants host a home final, very likely to be a rematch against the Roos in an elimination final, will rest on the result of this match. Though the Giants are the favourites, I think the Roos will get up in this one.

Prediction: North Melbourne by six points.

St Kilda versus Brisbane
St Kilda’s season of improvement will come to an end when they face the Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium on Sunday in a match which is likely to mark the last time Nick Riewoldt captains the side.

The Queenslander looks set to hand the reins to either his fellow statesman, David Armitage, or any of Jack Steven, Maverick Weller or Jarryn Geary, who has once captained the side in Riewoldt’s absence.

The Saints will start favourites against the Lions, who have won just three games for the season and could still finish as wooden spooners should Essendon defeat Carlton by a large margin at the MCG the previous day.

After beating Carlton at home by four points in Round 21, the Lions fell back to old habits when it lost to the Geelong Cats by ten goals at home, and it’s fair to say that this could be Justin Leppitsch’s final game as coach with the triple-premiership defender set to be sacked within weeks.

It’s been more than seven years since the Saints and Lions last met at Etihad Stadium, with five of the last six encounters coming at the Gabba and the other coming in New Zealand back in 2014.

The Saints won four of those six matches, including their most recent meeting in Round 9 last year when they won by 22 points on the back of a vintage performance from Nick Riewoldt.

History is also against the Lions, who haven’t beaten the Saints in Melbourne since 2000 and suffered their worst defeat as a joint venture, a 139-point humiliation in Round 22, 2005, in the match where Stephen Milne kicked 11 goals for the Saints.

That being said, the Saints should win here and doing that will give them a platform with which to work on going into season 2017.

Prediction: St Kilda by 28 points.

Hawthorn versus Collingwood
Should results go as expected on Friday and Saturday, the Hawks could be playing for the double chance when they tackle Collingwood for the only time this season at the MCG on Sunday.

The Hawks suffered a potentially disastrous loss to the West Coast Eagles last Friday night, not only losing by 25 points but also losing ruckman Jonathan Ceglar to the dreaded ACL injury which will keep him out for at least twelve months.

As a result they have dropped from first to fourth and a loss to Collingwood this Sunday could see them drop down to fifth should all of the Sydney Swans, Adelaide Crows, Geelong Cats and GWS Giants win earlier in the round.

The Pies will be fired up after producing their best second-biggest victory for the season in front of their lowest home crowd in 27 years, defeating the Gold Coast Suns by 71 points at Etihad Stadium last week.

They’ll have Travis Cloke back from yet another spell in the VFL and they’ll also be keen to give club veteran Dane Swan a fitting send-off, the 2011 Brownlow Medallist having announced his retirement after suffering a serious foot injury against the Sydney Swans in the opening round.

A win over Hawthorn, which they haven’t achieved since the 2011 preliminary final, would be a fitting way to not only send Swan, Alan Toovey and Brent Macaffer out as winners, but also shut the door on what has been a very disappointing season for the black and white when a lot was expected of them in 2016.

However, the Hawks will start favourites as they attempt to finish in the top four for a sixth consecutive year and start their bid for a record-equalling fourth consecutive premiership.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 25 points.

Fremantle versus Western Bulldogs
The regular season will conclude with Fremantle to farewell their greatest ever player, Matthew Pavlich, when they face the Western Bulldogs at Domain Stadium for the first time since 2012.

The Dockers’ season of woe hit yet another low last Saturday when they were thrashed by the GWS Giants by 92 points in Sydney, failing to kick a goal in the second half after being competitive early on.

But with Pavlich and a host of others set to return this Sunday, Ross Lyon’s men will want to lift for their champion against a Western Bulldogs side who have once again overcome a raft of serious injuries to book their place in September for the second consecutive year.

That being said, acting captain Easton Wood looks set to miss the trip to Perth despite being cleared of a serious ankle injury which he suffered against Essendon at Etihad Stadium last Sunday.

While history is against the men from Footscray, who haven’t won in Perth since 2010 and haven’t beaten the Dockers there since 2009, they will start favourites as they try to keep alive their hopes of a home final in September.

But they’ll be facing a Fremantle side that will be intent on sending Matthew Pavlich into retirement a winner, so the Bulldogs will have to be prepared for what the hosts can offer in the face of their worst season since 2001.

Whether the Dockers can send him out a winner, or whether the Bulldogs will show no mercy in enemy territory, will remain to be seen.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 20 points.