It’s been remarked often throughout the course of the year that, among the top eight, this season is one of the closest we’ve ever seen.

In fact, with one week left to go in the home-and-away season, there’s only a single win and percentage separating first from seventh – the only position at the moment that is locked is that of North Melbourne, three wins behind the pack in eighth.

Given this scenario, a huge number of potential finals combinations for the first week of play are presenting themselves.

It’s easy enough to make an educated guess on which results might go which way, but a single upset could completely derail how we expect the opening week of finals to go.

With that in mind, here’s a look, club-by-club, at the possible scenarios: the best, the worst, and those in between.

1. Sydney – 16 wins, 145.1 per cent
Match: vs Richmond at the SCG, 4:35pm (AEST) Saturday

The Swans leapt into top spot on the weekend, the beneficiaries of Hawthorn’s loss to West Coast. It’s now essentially theirs to lose.

A win over Richmond on the weekend will see them basically guaranteed to finish in the top two, and very likely to finish with the minor premiership – depending on the margins that Adelaide and Geelong win by over West Coast and Melbourne respectively, assuming they do win.

That said, a loss could easily see them drop to fourth, where they would face an away qualifying final, most likely against Adelaide at Adelaide Oval.

They could even go as low as fifth if they were to lose and have Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn and Greater Western Sydney all win, GWS doing so by enough to overtake them in percentage.

In that case, they would play North Melbourne in a final in Sydney for the third consecutive year, with the record currently split 1-1.

So, beat Richmond on Saturday and a home qualifying final is essentially locked in. Lose, and anything could happen.

2 – Adelaide – 16 wins, 142.3 per cent
Match: vs West Coast at Adelaide Oval, 8:10pm (AEST) Friday

The Crows are in a similar position to that of the Swans. They’ve got the chance to essentially sew up a home qualifying final this week, but if they lose, could miss the top four altogether.

Should Adelaide be successful against West Coast on Friday night, they’ll move to 17 wins and with their excellent percentage should outpace anything Geelong or Hawthorn can do to catch them.

That said, there is the chance that if they have only a tight win over the Eagles while Geelong absolutely smash Melbourne, they could drop to third.

That probably requires Geelong to win by at least a dozen goals or so, meaning the balance of probability is firmly in Adelaide’s favour.

The most likely scenario is that the Crows finish second and Geelong third, and Patrick Dangerfield will play his old side for a third time this season, in the heat of September, at Adelaide Oval – a promoter’s dream if ever there was one.

Of course, it could all go very wrong for the Crows if they cough up a loss to the Eagles, a possibility which should not be written off given the Eagles have beaten the Giants and Hawthorn in the past fortnight.

Nic Naitanui’s ACL injury is expected to rob West Coast of their potency, but the Crows won’t want to take them lightly, especially given the fact they’ll be missing Rory Sloane.

If the Crows lose while Geelong, Hawthorn, and GWS all win, they’ll finish fifth, playing North in week one. If the Crows lose and at least one of those sides doesn’t win, they’ll finish in the top four still but will have to travel in the first week of finals.

3 – Geelong – 16 wins, 137.8 per cent
Match: vs Melbourne at Simonds Stadium, 1:45pm (AEST) Saturday

The Cats have their future only partially in their own hands this week – they can avoid a first-week finals roadtrip on their own merit if they do spectacularly well, but it will be easier for them if results go their way.

Essentially, they need Adelaide or Sydney to trip up. If those two sides both win this week, then the task for the Cats becomes very hard – they would need to beat Melbourne by 11 or 12 goals, just to be a chance at finishing in the top two.

However, if one of those sides lose – and they’ll go into their Saturday afternoon match only knowing the fate of Adelaide, not Sydney – then they can jump into the top two and have a final in Victoria in the first week without any worries about the margin, so long as they win.

Of course, the most probable scenario is that all three of Sydney, Adelaide and Geelong will get a win this week, and the Cats will finish third and make the journey to Adelaide Oval in Week 1 of finals.

That’s not too scary, really – they played that same match-up earlier this year, and they won it, so they would go in with some confidence.

More concerning is what might happen if they lost to Melbourne. That could see them drop as far as sixth, if Hawthorn, GWS and West Coast were all to win.

So, beat Melbourne, and beat them by as much as possible. A win will guarantee top four, a big win will go a long way towards top two.

4 – Hawthorn – 16 wins, 119.7 per cent
Match: vs Collingwood at the MCG, 3:20pm (AEST) Sunday

Three weeks ago the Hawks were two games clear on the top of the ladder – oh how the mighty have fallen.

Losses to Melbourne and West Coast since then have seen them drop to fourth and made a home qualifying final a pipe dream.

If the Hawks are going to make it back to the top two before the close of business this week, they need to hope that two of the teams above them lose – and that just doesn’t seem at all likely.

So their most realistic goal is to get a win this week and confirm a top-four spot, then try to win a final on the road, as they did last year.

Beat Collingwood on Sunday and their top-four spot is absolutely sealed – they likely finish fourth and play the Swans in a qualifying final in Sydney. They’d take a little bit of confidence going into that match, given they beat the Swans there earlier this year.

If they lose however, they will almost certainly miss the top four, so long as one of GWS, West Coast and the Bulldogs get a win – with the Bulldogs being the most likely against Fremantle, but West Coast and GWS both in with a serious chance as well.

They could then theoretically fall as low as seventh, though they would still get to play in Victoria in the first week, in an ‘away’ final against the Bulldogs.

5 – GWS Giants – 15 wins, 142.5 per cent
Match: vs North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium, 7:25pm (AEST) Saturday

Were it not for dropping games they were expected to win against Melbourne, Collingwood, and West Coast this season, the Giants would already have the minor premiership locked up.

That said, a similar list of misses could easily be made for every other club in the top eight, so let’s not criticise the Giants too much for that.

They still have a chance to finish top four this season and if they did so would potentially be in the nice position of still playing in Sydney, as the ‘away’ team against the Swans.

The scenario for that to happen in is that one of the top four drops their game this week – not the Swans – and the Giants sneak into fourth with a win over North.

Of course, they could still finish as high as first if all the top four were to lose this week – that seems seriously unlikely, but mathematically, it could happen.

Lose this week and the Giants could slip as low as seventh, assuming that West Coast and the Bulldogs win their respective games.

So the ideal situation for them is to get a win over North and guarantee a home elimination final, at worst, while keeping themselves in the hunt for a top-four spot, should results fall their way.

6 – West Coast – 15 wins, 129.5 per cent
Match: vs Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, 8:10pm (AEST) Friday

If the Eagles win this week, they can jump into fourth spot temporarily and then would need to hope that Hawthorn lose to Collingwood and GWS lose to North Melbourne – that would see them finish fourth, and while they would face a first-week road trip, they’d at least have the double chance.

More likely is that they would be bumped down to fifth or sixth, but at least then they would have the chance to play their elimination final at Domain Stadium, guaranteeing a home ground advantage.

Lose, and they will find themselves in a really odd position – barracking hard for the Fremantle Dockers, because a Freo win over the Bulldogs would be their only chance of staying in sixth.

7 – Western Bulldogs – 15 wins, 117.4 per cent
Match: vs Fremantle Dockers at Domain Stadium, 4:40pm (AEST) Sunday

The most likely scenario for the Bulldogs is that they get a win over Fremantle on the weekend and then finish either fifth or sixth, booking a home elimination final.

They do have an unlikely shot at making the top four, but it requires Hawthorn, GWS and West Coast to all lose.

Given they are in the last match of the round, they’ll have a pretty good idea going in of just how high their ceiling is. If West Coast and GWS have won, and Hawthorn are well on top at the MCG in a game that will be about halfway done at the time, they’ll know that even a win would still see them finish seventh.

So, it will be fingers crossed for them that at least one of the Eagles, GWS or Hawthorn lose. And given two of those sides are on the road this week, both against top-eight opponents, you’d think the balance of probability is in their favour.

8 – North Melbourne – 12 wins, 107.6 per cent
Match: vs GWS at Etihad Stadium, 7:25pm (AEST) on Saturday

Three wins behind the next best, North know they will finish eight (unless they lose and St Kilda win, the combined margin across the games being 300 points or so).

However, they have the opportunity to influence which team finishes fifth, and in doing so could secure a ‘home’ elimination final in Victoria. Unlike last season though, it won’t be through resting and accepting a loss.

If they beat GWS on Saturday night, there’s a strong chance they will play the Bulldogs first up.

This needs West Coast to also lose to Adelaide on Friday night – a game North will know the outcome of before their own match starts.

If the Eagles win, then North are out of luck – they’re almost certainly travelling for their elimination final, unless one of Hawthorn or Geelong drops their game.

However if the Crows win, and North beat GWS, and the Bulldogs beat Fremantle, while all of the top four win their games, the Bulldogs will finish fifth and host North in Victoria.

Final thoughts
Assuming that the teams playing non-top-eight opponents all win – and they should, with so much on the line – then the two big games of interest are Adelaide vs West Coast and North Melbourne vs GWS.

Adelaide have the advantages of better form and the home field when they host the Eagles and even without Rory Sloane you’d expect them to get the job done.

GWS are clearly in better form than North Melbourne right now, but the Roos have two advantages – they’ve never lost to the Giants, so there’s a mental edge, and they will be playing at home. The Giants haven’t won against a top-eight side outside of Spotless Stadium all year.

If the favourites all win the first week of finals should look something like this:

Qualifying finals – Sydney vs Hawthorn, Adelaide vs Geelong
Elimination finals – GWS vs North Melbourne, Bulldogs vs West Coast

However if West Coast were to upset the Crows, it would probably look like this (depending on margins):

Qualifying finals – Sydney vs GWS, Geelong vs Hawthorn
Elimination finals – Adelaide vs North Melbourne, West Coast vs Bulldogs

If North are the ones to cause an upset, we’ll likely have:

Qualifying finals – Sydney vs Hawthorn, Adelaide vs Geelong
Elimination finals – Bulldogs vs North Melbourne, GWS vs West Coast

If both upsets happen?

Qualifying finals – Sydney vs Adelaide, Geelong vs Hawthorn
Elimination finals – West Coast vs North Melbourne, Bulldogs vs GWS

Of course, if any of the top eight vs non-top-eight games go against the favourites, the whole thing will be knocked completely off course.

So, all I can really say is, settle in for a big week of footy. There will be little in the way of dead rubbers this weekend – and a few extra goals here or there might radically change the shape of the premiership race.