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Saturday sure things: Caulfield and Rosehill preview

(AAP Image/Julian Simth)
Roar Guru
24th August, 2016
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The quaddies last weekend stunk, so we are back to focusing on quality racing in Sydney and Melbourne, with the focus mainly on Caulfield for the first major of the season, the Memsie Stakes (1400m).

I highly doubt Lord Of The Sky will hand up the lead from the paint, despite Charmed Harmony drawing two gates away from him.

But Mahuta will get the dream sit off that pair, in what shapes up as D-Day for the Weir runner and how genuine he is against the big boys.

My tip though is the Tony McEvoy-trained Alpine Eagle. He only had one run last time in, which came during the Adelaide Carnival over the mile, where he sat back in a slowly-run race (first 1000 metres in 65 seconds), so forget that run.

I’m concentrating on the trial win at Tatura last week, where he looked very sharp, sitting off speed before peeling clear and doing as he pleases under a hold. He does have a lethal turn of foot when he gets conditions to suit, and I am hoping a strong tempo up front will see him use it.

The obvious threat is Black Heart Bart, who could have won four Group 1s last prep had the bob of the head gone his way a couple of times. He has transformed himself into one of the best in Australia under Darren Weir, and he ticks the boxes here – proven at weight-for-age, sprints well fresh, good draw, winner at the track, five wins at the distance – yeah, understandable why he is the favourite.

For a roughie I will include Charmed Harmony. Forget he went around first-up, because it was a pretty ordinary steer. The jump-out prior looked sharp, and I am hoping he won’t have to do as much as he did fresh.

Alpine Eagle on top, to beat Black Heart Bart, Charmed Harmony and Mahuta.

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That’s Caulfield, now onto Sydney, where the feature race at Rosehill is the Run To The Rose (1200m), where the Golden Rose picture will become much clearer.

There looks to be really good speed engaged here, with several runners, mainly drawn the inside, pushing forward.

If he runs up to his Warwick Farm trial win, Impending is a good thing. He created a big impression in his first prep and really should be two from two. But what got me was the trial win where he bolted past Famous Seamus and won under triple wraps. Looks set for a Group 1 winning prep.

I’ll concede that Star Turn is a threat, but he is a false favourite. Yes, he won the San Domenico, but that was pretty much a barrier trial and his turn of foot was superior. He won’t get it as easy here.

Big watch on the close relation to Winx, El Divino won two from two in the Autumn, knowing there was a stack of improvement when he went to the paddock.

Impending on top, over Star Turn, El Divino and Telperion.

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