The year’s final Grand Slam tournament is here. All eyes will be on world number one Serena Williams as the American not only attempts to go for a 23rd major title, but also protect her top ranking, which will go on the line in New York.
The American should consider herself lucky to still be world number one after Angelique Kerber missed the chance to overtake her in Cincinnati earlier this week, where the German was defeated in the final by Karolina Pliskova.
Kerber will inherit the world number one ranking should Williams fail to reach the semi-finals. Garbine Muguruza and Agnieszka Radwanska are also in with the chance to take top spot in the rankings should they both do well in New York.
The trio are the main contenders to the American for the tournament, which will be missing defending champion Flavia Pennetta after the Italian announced her retirement at the end of last year.
Let’s now have a look at some of the contenders for the final Grand Slam tournament of the year, starting with the world number one, Serena Williams.
Serena Williams (USA)
Current world ranking: 1
Titles won this season to date: Rome, Wimbledon
US Open history
Best result: Won six times (1999, 2002, 2008, 2012-14)
Last year’s result: Semi-finals
Grand Slam results this year to date
Australian Open: Runner-up
French Open: Runner-up
Wimbledon: Won
Rio Olympics result: Third round
While Serena Williams remains the one to beat, the American will still be hurting not only from her shock third round exit at the Rio Olympics, but also her shock US Open semi-final loss to Roberta Vinci last year, which ended her bid to become the first woman since Steffi Graf in 1988 to sweep the Grand Slam calendar year.
That defeat by the Italian ranked as one of the biggest upsets in modern tennis history, and a devastated Williams would not serve another ball in anger until this year’s Australian Open.
There, she was the favourite to win the title, which would’ve started her bid to become just the second woman, after Graf, to achieve the Golden Calendar Slam, but that was ended when she was defeated by Angelique Kerber in the final.
The 34-year-old was also upset in the final of the French Open by Garbine Muguruza, but was able to bounce back at Wimbledon, winning her seventh title there and 22nd major title overall by defeating Kerber in the final in straight sets.
Williams now sits equal on Graf on the Grand Slam singles leaderboard and is just two off the all-time record held by Margaret Court.
The earliest that record can be equalled is if the American wins her national championships for a seventh time, and then the Australian Open, also for a seventh time, next January.
But first thing’s first – Williams’ world number one ranking will go on the line in New York and if she fails to reach the semi-finals, she will lose top spot for the first time since February 2013, regardless of how Angelique Kerber fares.
Below is a tweet of what needs to happen if Williams is to keep top spot after the US Open.
With US Open points off, Kerber will have a significant head start over Serena in the race for #1. Scenarios: pic.twitter.com/azECS8Y23G
— Tumaini Carayol (@tumcarayol) August 21, 2016
Essentially, this means that if Williams and Kerber meet in the final, which is possible as they are seeded one and two respectively, the number one ranking will be decided there.
Despite concerns over her fitness (she missed Cincinnati due to a shoulder injury) and form, I think the American will salute for a seventh time.
Prediction: Champion
Angelique Kerber (GER)
Current world ranking: 2
Titles won this season to date: Australian Open, Stuttgart
US Open history
Best result: Semi-finals (2011)
Last year’s result: Third round
Grand Slam results this year to date
Australian Open: Won
French Open: First round
Wimbledon: Runner-up
Rio Olympics result: Silver Medal
The major contender to Serena Williams not only for the title, but also the world number one ranking as explained above, is world number two Angelique Kerber.
After some rather disappointing results between the Australian Open and Wimbledon non-inclusive, the German has returned to the form that saw her reign Down Under, reaching the semi-finals in Montreal and winning the Silver Medal at the Rio Olympics, where she lost to Monica Puig in the final.
With Williams missing from Cincinnati last week, the German had her chance to inherit the world number one ranking from the American, but blew it when she lost to Karolina Pliskova in the final in straight sets.
However, she will get another chance to do so here, and with only a third round to defend from last year the 28-year-old can overtake the American, who must reach the semi-finals to have any chance of keeping top spot, in the rankings.
The German was unlucky to have faced Victoria Azarenka last year, whereby she lost in three sets in what was being regarded as one of the best Grand Slam matches of 2015.
But her current ranking of number two will mean she will avoid most of the big guns until the quarter-finals, while she cannot face Serena Williams until the final, where the world number one ranking could be decided then.
There is also the chance Kerber could inherit top spot if she loses her first round match and Williams loses before the semi-finals. But I expect Kerber to do very well in New York, where she made her career breakthrough by reaching the semi-finals in 2011, while ranked 92nd in the world.
Prediction: Final
Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
Current world ranking: 3
Titles won this season to date: French Open
US Open history
Best result: Second round (2015)
Last year’s result: Second round
Grand Slam results this year to date
Australian Open: Third round
French Open: Won
Wimbledon: Second round
Rio Olympics result: Third round
Having briefly regressed since winning the French Open in June, third seed Garbine Muguruza appears to be regaining form at the right time heading into the year’s final Grand Slam tournament.
Since lifting the trophy at Roland Garros, the Spaniard suffered a disappointing second round exit at Wimbledon and was also stunned in the third round of the tennis tournament in Rio by the eventual gold medallist, Monica Puig.
But the 22-year-old was quick to bounce back in Cincinnati last week, where she reached the semi-finals only to be defeated quite easily by Czech serving machine Karolina Pliskova in straight sets.
Still, Muguruza will arrive in Flushing Meadows confident that she can make a good run at what is statistically her worst Grand Slam tournament, with her best result coming last year where she lost to Johanna Konta in the second round.
To be fair, however, the Spaniard is only 22 and this will be just her fourth appearance in the main draw of the US Open, so there is always time and scope for improvement.
But the question will be which version of Garbine Muguruza will show up – the one that upset Serena Williams to win in Paris, or the one that struggled at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon?
Prediction: Semi-finals
Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
Current world ranking: 4
Titles won this season to date: Shenzhen
US Open history
Best result: Fourth round four times (2007, 2008, 2012, 2013)
Last year’s result: Third round
Grand Slam results this year to date
Australian Open: Semi-finals
French Open: Fourth round
Wimbledon: Fourth round
Rio Olympics result: First round
One of four players in contention for the world number one ranking, Agnieszka Radwanska, will be out to improve on her dismal record at the US Open, which is the only major where she has yet to reach the quarter-finals.
While she’s only been able to win one title this season, as well as reach the semi-finals at the Australian Open, this year has been one of consistency for the 27-year-old Pole, as her world ranking of four shows.
However, as was the case in 2012, her Olympics campaign turned out to be a brief affair as she lost in the first round to China’s Zheng Saisai.
That follow fourth round showings at the French Open and Wimbledon, which certainly could’ve been better had she taken her chances against Tsvetana Pironkova and Dominika Cibulkova respectively.
Against Pironkova in Paris she was in a strong position to win before her opponent stormed back into the match following a washed out second Monday, while against Cibulkova she had a match point but could not convert it, going down in three sets.
Last week in Cincinnati she was able to reach the quarter-finals, losing to Simona Halep, while she has also reached the final eight at the ongoing event in Connecticut.
This means the US Open will be her fifth event in six weeks, and the match practice she has been gaining over the past month should set her up for a deep run into the second week at Flushing Meadows.
Whether she can adjust her game to the demands of the DecoTurf surface will remain to be seen, as it partially proved to be her downfall in Rio.
Prediction: Quarter-finals
Other notable contenders
* Simona Halep (ROU)
* Karolina Pliskova (CZE)
* Venus Williams (USA)
* Madison Keys (USA)
* Petra Kvitova (CZE)
* Johanna Konta (GBR)
* Monica Puig (PUR)
Notable absentees
* Victoria Azarenka (BLR), pregnancy
* Flavia Pennetta (ITA), retirement
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