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Stakes, they are high. The final Friday night of the home and away season has evidently delivered us the eight-shaping match up we hoped it would. But are the Eagles any chance at knocking off the Crows in their home nest?
Earlier this week, Josh Elliott in his usual, useful way, pulled together a ready reckoner as to what the final week of the season meant for each top eight side. This is excellent, because it means we can spend more time hyping the game at hand, which is fun.
The Adelaide Crows sit in second spot, and can build a wall between themselves and third or lower with a win of reasonable magnitude. A close win opens the door for Geelong, sitting on the same number of wins but with a percentage around five points lower, to sneak over the top with a big win. A loss of any kind risks dropping out of the double chance altogether.
Meanwhile, the West Coast Eagles sit in sixth, and are currently set to host a final in week one (well, week two technically I guess) of September. A win confirms that, while simultaneously putting the Eagles in the frame for a finish in the top four – subject to the Giants losing. It would also require one of the current 16-win teams to drop a game, and even then it is only realistic for the Eagles to get in if the Hawks lose, such are the lofty percentages of teams atop the ladder.
An Eagles loss would put them in pole position for a seventh-placed finish, and a trip to any one of the Giants, Dogs or Hawks for an elimination final, subject to other results.
In short, for both teams, a win tonight is very good. A loss tonight is very bad. West Coast’s season may hinge on a victory, while for the Crows, the clearest path to the last game of the season requires a W.
Before we get into the play, an interesting statistic regarding this game has been pointed out a few times throughout this week. It bears repeating now, because one assumes regular programming will resume from Round 1 next year. Tonight is the first time two non-Victorian teams have performed on the big stage in the same home and away game since the 12th of August 2005.
You read that right sports fans: there has been a Victorian team on Friday night every week of the home and away season for more than 11 years. Incredible.
On to more pressing matters, both sides are missing top flight players: Nic Naitanui at West Coast, and Rory Sloane at Adelaide.
Patrick Dangerfield’s departure has proven to be nothing more than a speed bump for this juggernaut of a club, and Sloane’s play has been critical to this. Sloane is running at career highs in disposals, tackles, clearances, contested possessions and uncontested possessions, moving up from what were already lofty levels across the board. His stats aren’t an order of magnitude larger than last season, but his influence on games is stronger than ever.
The Crows midfield is arguably their weak spot, and so losing Sloane, who has played the ruck-rover role Dangerfield made his own more frequently this season, is not ideal. But fortunately for the Crows, West Coast’s midfield absentee is worth five times as much to his team – and that’s no knock on Sloane.
The loss of Nic Nat is cataclysmic for the Eagles – not just for tonight’s game but for the rest of the season. (Click to Tweet) There is no doubting his influence on the team – West Coast have been a midfield basket case without their superstar ruckman in 2016.
In the six weeks he was out following Achilles tendon surgery, the Eagles lost the clearance and contested possession counts five times each – the same for both categories in the 15 games that he did play.
He provides so much drive and attacking power from stoppage situations, and has lifted his rating around the ground to the point where he can’t be considered a liability anymore.
The Eagles have replaced him with journeyman Jonathon Giles, whose claim to fame is having been on the list of four AFL clubs in four states.
Is it as simple as that? Not quite, but West Coast’s inability to get on top in the midfield without Naitanui is as close to a critical flaw as you can get in a game of 18-players-a-side.
We’ve talked about the Eagles a bit in recent weeks. Their win against the Hawks last week certainly boosted their credentials, but was built as much on 15 minutes of play in the first quarter as an uncharacteristically off night from much of Hawthorn’s playing stocks.
Once Naitanui went down, the Eagles quickly followed: the last quarter saw the Hawks pile on 18 inside 50s to six, and eight scoring shots to two.
Still, two wins against two quality opponents is better than two losses, and it has put the Eagles within spitting distance of an unlikely double chance. That run will end tonight.
Outside of the midfield, the Crows are likely to beat West Coast at both ends of the ground. Adelaide’s swift attacking system, finely tuned over the course of the season, is built to directly counter West Coast’s zone.
The Crows’ penchant for an extra defender, plus the one-dimensional nature of the Eagles’ forward line group, make it difficult to see how the Eagles will keep pace.
This is how their previous match up played out. After playing mostly to a draw in the first half – albeit the Eagles were up by a few goals – Adelaide hit their little red button and left a flat-footed West Coast wondering what happened.
19 scoring shots to seven in the second half underplays the extent to which the Crows owned the Eagles. Since that game, the Crows have been on a tear, scoring 100 points in every game bar two (one of those was a 97), including 143, 177, 142 and 109 in their past four outings.
West Coast are capable of putting up numbers that look similar to these, but not reliably, and especially not without their spearhead.
This has the potential to be a very entertaining game, especially if the Eagles are able to get any semblance of drive off their half back line to counter Adelaide’s defensive structures. There comes a time though where you get what you’re getting.
It’s the Crows for me, on their home deck and with a top two spot on the line, by 30 points. The more fun outcome for the weekend would be a tight Eagles victory, but I just don’t see it.
That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?