The first Group 1 of the racing season is upon us once again. It seems like only yesterday Boban took the rails run to snatch the 2015 Memsie Stakes, and here we are again a year later.
The Memsie Stakes, held at Caulfield over 1400m under weight-for-age conditions, has been a Group 1 for three years, but the list of winners throughout the decades contains many of our greatest WFA performers. The race usually stacks up as a form reference through the spring carnival.
Half of this year’s 14 horse field are Group 1 winners, but only two of them recorded their victories in races less than 2000m, so while this edition may well be a pointer to the longer races, the winning chances here look thin.
Black Heart Bart is clearly the horse to beat, and holds a short quote accordingly.
The formguide tells us his last campaign, his first for Darren Weir, saw placings in the Newmarket, All Aged and Stradbroke, along with a Group 1 win in the Goodwood, plus the Victoria Handicap along the way.
Those runs were against genuine 1200m-1400m horses, of which there are few in this field. Black Heart Bart can take a position in the front half of the field from barrier five, and he should be too good.
The favourite’s main threats appear to come from his own stable, in the form of Palentino and Mahuta.
Palentino won the Australian Guineas in blazing style in the spring, but might have done a bit more first-up, albeit with 60kgs giving weight to some handy horses. He tackles WFA now, and will need to be good to beat Black Heart Bart.
Mahuta has been disappointing in his two runs back, and the fact he came back early in races like the Bletchingly and P.B Lawrence suggests that even the stable doesn’t think he will make the top level. The handicaps look likely to be his go, even if the talk is that he has been set for the race.
Darren Weir’s fourth runner is Melbourne Cup winner Prince of Penzance, who will be looking to clean out the cobwebs and hit the line pleasingly, much as he did in the Memsie last year.
The speed of the race comes in the shape of noted front-runners Lord of the Sky and Charmed Harmony.
Lord of the Sky is flying, and held on well after burning up The Cleaner in the P.B Lawrence. He may have put his shirking days behind him, and if Charmed Harmony doesn’t cut him up too much, he can steal the race.
Charmed Harmony has had the odd crack at Group 1 races, and while he is a consistent and hearty competitor, has proven to be a level below. He’ll give a decent account of himself though, and could sneak a place if they don’t go too hard up front.
Alpine Eagle is the interesting runner, with an Australian Guineas second on his resume, as well as being beaten less than a length behind Fawkner in the Makybe Diva Stakes last year. He’s had injury troubles since then, and has only run once. He has the ability to win a race of this calibre, but not the sharpness at this stage of his prep.
He or she looks a solid Group 2 horse trying to make a jump in grade, and will likely be coming home as fast as anything else, but giving too much of a start. He’ll win his right race this prep.
We do have a couple of Derby winners and an Oaks winner resuming too, and punters will be looking for that classic eye-catching performance from them all, to make their assessments about which of them may figure in the Cups.
Tarzino has a Rosehill Guineas and a Vic Derby to his credit, and had a real touch of class about him in his three year old season. The Mick Price stable is bullish about his prospects and expect him to run very well here.
The Kiwi’s walked away with both the Derby and the Oaks in the Sydney autumn, courtesy of Tavago and Sofia Rosa respectively. Where they fit in will be a talking point.
Tally caught fire in the autumn with a string of wins, including a couple at Group 2 level before running third in the ATC Derby. Whether he’s a genuine stayer remains to be seen, but he’s drastically over the odds here as the second most despised runner, and should be half his current quote at least.
Rising Romance will run well without winning if history is any guide. Stablemate Tashbeeh will obviously be outclassed here but returned well in the Aurie’s Star, suggesting he’ll be a major player on the country cups circuit.
The pace should be genuine with Lord of the Sky and Charmed Harmony up front, with Mahuta slotting in behind them, and Black Heart Bart and Rising Romance jostling for the run of the race. The stayers will sort themselves out back in the early stages before running home.
Selections: 1.Black Heart Bart 2.Lord of the Sky 3.Mahuta 4.Tally
Around the traps: In other races at Caulfield, Tom Melbourne looks an extremely enticing bet resuming in the Heatherlie, with few legitimate dangers. Don’t be surprised to see him kick their heads in. Highland Beat looks a bomb-proof each-way option in the McNeil.
The prospect of a heavy track at Rosehill may see a number of scratchings across the card, but some highly rated three year olds are down to clash in the Run to the Rose. El Divino has the spruik on him, with good reason based on performances and trials so far, and by Snitzel should relish any wet ground.
Rose’s Roughie: The Cockram Stakes is the last race on the Caulfield card, and it might pay to look around the four-year-olds, especially given Don’t Doubt Mamma and Thames Court have to give the field weight, and Ocean Embers will likely have to round them all up from last, which is a huge ask.
Choose showed she was up to this class in the autumn, and can drive forward from barrier three to get a lovely trail in second or third behind likely leader Shakespearean Lass, on a potentially moderate tempo. She’s enormous value at around the $14 mark.
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