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You heard it here first: Whoever wins the second qualifying final wins the flag

28th August, 2016
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Tom Hawkins become a test case for the future of the jumper punch. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Expert
28th August, 2016
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Now that the dust is settled I can revisit my Round 1 prophesies. I underestimated The Giants and overestimated the Power. Apart from that, I was more or less spot on.

Adelaide surprised me for a while with their flashy forward line, but when you squeeze the Crows – as Geelong and, more recently, West Coast did – they pop. And this is why they missed the top four.

I tipped the Bulldogs to finish in the top six teams, but I didn’t factor in the horrendous injury run with which they have had to contend.

Depth is one thing, but the Dogs needed more than that this season and they found it. The Bulldog spirit – the gravel that runs through the veins of every true son of the Scray – kept them in the hunt long after mortal men would have crumbled and wept.

Their finals series may not last beyond the first week this season, but with just a shred of good fortune they would have finished top two. Good luck next year.

And so now we have the makings of a fitting end to a remarkable and thrilling season.

Neither of the top two teams have secured any real home advantage.

After some late-season wobbles, the Giants impressed with a clinical job on North Melbourne. The youngsters and the veterans are firing, and there’s no troubling paucity of big-stage experience in the team.

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On form, the Swans look like certainties but pressure does funny things to a player and a team. There’s very little expectation that GWS will usurp their seasoned neighbour, and that will work in their favour.

Whoever wins this one will march into the grand final… It will likely be Sydney… by 19 points.

If so, GWS will remain a good chance of making a prelim, but it will be on the road and they will struggle to win it.

Not long ago Cats fans may have hoped to finish fourth in order to play Hawthorn in Melbourne and avoid a trip to Sydney or Adelaide. A lot changed in a few short weeks and now the Geelong faithful can feel a bit peeved they’re not hosting an interstate team instead.

The Hawks did what they do and produced another narrow win in a pressure cooker, while Geelong cantered to a ridiculous win over Melbourne. The Cats’ last two games before the break were basically training runs against witches’ hats which, combined with a week off, could prove less than ideal preparation.

On the other hand, Tom Hawkins and Daniel Menzel are now kicking straight and if that continues they could do just about anything. Hawthorn are Hawthorn. The winner of this game will win the flag. Geelong by 5 points.

It breaks my heart to say it but the Bulldogs are facing a big ask. West Coast, a team packed with firepower but seemingly without ammo for much of the season, has clicked at the right time. Nic Naitanui is a big loss but they’re well covered in the ruck and will be bursting with confidence.

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The Dogs, on the other hand, were poor against the Dockers – disposing of the ball at 46% efficiency – as it appears the horror injury run is finally weighing them down.

West Coast is now playing as well away as they do at home. At the start of the season, on paper, they had a realistic chance of taking out the premiership. They’ve now started to put the theory into practice. The Eagles by 31.

Adelaide will take out their frustration on North Melbourne in a way that will require a “some scenes may be distressing to some viewers” warning before the game. Brent Harvey and Nick Dal Santo will probably get 30+ possessions each just to remind everyone what an absolute cluster-fracas the final weeks of North’s season have been as the Roos get flogged. Adelaide by 58. Adelaide – given space – can strut like hell, but like the Cats of the early 1990s they’ll discover that that isn’t enough when the going gets tough.

These are my predictions for the top eight.

Next week, my predictions for the bottom eight. Stay tuned.

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