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World Rugby’s third-ranked team visits number four in Brisbane next week. Both teams seem to be falling off a cliff, hanging on by fingertips, one kicking and screaming, the other regurgitating stale clichés about growing and learning.
This old rivalry has been ruled by home-field advantage over the years. The Wallabies usually beat the Springboks in Australia (an all-time 23 wins to 12 in Australia, with one draw).
Suncorp’s pristine track has typically been barren ground for the visiting Boks. In the last five Test matches in Brisbane, the Wallabies have won four. In 2006, Suncorp witnessed the Boks battered 49-0. So, this is good soil for a comeback by Michael Cheika and his beleaguered boys?
The 2013 exception was one of Heyneke Meyer’s best moments: a 38-12 hoodoo-shattering win by the (then) offensive Bok juggernaut. The Boks left that game unbeaten (four from four), heading to Auckland for what came to be the great Bismarck-sank-Carter episode, while there the Wallabies were still winless in that year’s Rugby Championship.
Basically, the home side bounced from ruck to ruck without a sign of knowing how to find a gap, Morne Steyn outdueled Quade Cooper in the battle for field position, and Meyer used a battering ram 342kg loose trio of Francois Louw, Willem Alberts and Duane Vermeulen.
Ewan McKenzie’s big loss was avenged in July of last year with a try after the hooter by Tevita Kuridrani to give Michael Cheika’s side a crucial 24-20 win. Stephen Moore’s decision to go for the corner was hailed as a brave call. In the Republic, the narrative was “we gave them two chances to beat us and they took the second.”
Back then, Michael Hooper got the start over David Pocock, pre-‘Pooper.’ Early in the match, the Boks waged a war of attrition that seemed to be working as of 47:00, as Jesse Kriel scored a converted try to put the visitors up 20-6. A powerful scrum and a try by Eben Etzebeth staked South Africa to a lead. Cheika’s choice of the Cooper-Genia combo over Foley-Phipps was the big news leading into that game.
This year, both teams limp into Suncorp. Both have decent arguments for that coveted underdog status.
Cheika seems fond of the “us versus the world” technique of motivation. Perfecting the “our backs are up against the wall” theme as a coach is an art. Cheika’s five straight losses give him ammunition to work with as he attempts to inspire his troops.
But perhaps he has been too wild in his punches. He has taken swings at a French referee’s rudeness, the entire fraternity of referees, former Wallabies’ critiques, himself, his only proven lineout lock, New Zealand’s security sensibilities, and of course, the scapegoat of all leaders everywhere, the media. His defence of captain Stephen Moore comes off like a helicopter mum, trying to shame teachers into forcing the cool kids to play with her socially awkward son.
But he can definitely make a plausible argument for underdog status, no matter what Queensland bookies offer. The Wallaby lineout is abysmal, and faces a Bok lineout with five jumpers, and the best and second best lineout thieves in 2016 Super Rugby. Worse, there is no certainty as to the identity of the Wallaby locks, in order to hone their throw-and-catch this week, when it might actually make a difference.
Scott Fardy has played too much rugby and bless his soul, he knows no moderation. He will come hard at the Boks; but I think he needs time off to eat a hamburger every three hours and rest. His teammate Pocock’s 15 carries against the All Blacks looked like 14 too many, given his 15 tackles and five misses, leading to 0 turnovers won in the second Bledisloe.
Australia has simply had to tackle too much. Eleven Wallabies made ten or more tackles in the Bledisloes, with an astonishing 67 misses in total. If Cheika’s game plan results in double-digit tackle attempts by Bernard Foley and Dane Haylett-Perry on hard-running Boks like Warren Whiteley, Damian de Allende, Eben Etzebeth, and Pieter-Steph du Toit, it will be a long night in Brisbane for the home fans.
The ‘spine’ of the Wallabies (Moore-Douglas-Pocock-Genia-Cooper-Folau) has not looked healthy in the lumbar area; the only bright spots have been in the cervical area: the world-class Israel Folau. Perhaps also Will Genia, who even looked good up against Aaron Smith.
But Allister Coetzee is not sailing along the trade winds with supermodels on deck and a bottle of champagne. From his first Test, he’s been drowning, gasping, almost surviving, and never in charge. Every match has seemed to come down to one or two moments of luck or failure.
Just like Cheika, the Bok coach has a severely under-performing hooker-skipper. Adriaan Strauss used to be “change of pace” spinner following the Bismarck fast bowl. Under Coetzee, he has played 398 of 400 minutes, to little effect. His carries have seldom crossed the gain line. He has been invisible at the breakdown. Critical decisions seem to be made by Whiteley (or in the Irish series by Schalk Burger) or live-wire Faf de Klerk (some of those decisions have been lame-brained).
The narrow series win over the Irish seems to have returned Coetzee to his ultra-conservative rugby roots. It took three years before Meyer crawled back into a risk-adverse posture. Coetzee is only five Tests in.
– Against Ireland, the Boks threw 147 passes a game. Against the Pumas: 95.
– Against Ireland, the Boks were pinged 10.3 times a game. Against the Pumas, less than 9.5.
– Carries: 109.6 a game versus Ireland; 81.5 a game versus Argentina.
– Kicks from hand: 21 per game against Ireland; almost 25 a game versus Argentina.
With Elton Jantjies unable to cope with Test team rush defences and his nerves when kicking for poles, and a groin injury picked up early in Salta, we may see the unlikely scene of Morne Steyn starting in Brisbane.
Now, Steyn was never as bad as his critics claim, but the point is that Meyer – who dropped Steyn in favour of a 20-year-old Handre Pollard and never started Steyn again – was pilloried for creating the potential of Steyn playing for the Boks again, while Coetzee faces very little criticism for neglecting Garth April in the Irish series and failing to look at, for instance, the three promising baby Stormer flyhalves.
What is a Coetzee style? With the Stormers, for many years, he turned out highly competitive and structured 11-man teams (10 plus an inside center who set ruck targets) with the outside backs mere chasers. Coetzeeball is Gatlandball with more colour. The Stormers have been set piece experts who fell in the playoffs to higher-scoring attacking squads.
The Lions template, which depends heavily on repetitive fast-ball and runners from all positions being ready to take the ball at speed and shift from angle to angle, was supposed to be merely augmented by world class tight forwards to handle Test rugby’s set piece demands.
But Coetzee has never seen rugby that way.
So, we see his carrying options begin already to alter. In the Irish series, the leading Bok ball-carriers were at inside centre (11 a game) and fullback (11 a game), with outside centre (6 a game) and wings (10 a game) getting plenty of touches. Against Argentina, the top carriers looked like this: Loose forwards (44), tight forwards (32), midfielders (25), wings (17), and fullback (16).
In addition, Oupa Mohoje, who was widely thought of as a selection mostly to appease political demands for a team far less white than the Lions (the least ‘transformed’ of South Africa’s Super Rugby squads) seems to have been asked by Coetzee to play the role of Willem Alberts, the ‘Bone Collector.’
That type of reputation, punctuated by eight high tackles in Salta and a headlock, can quickly become tarnished. But more importantly, if it’s the overpowering game that Coetzee is seeking, he will be rudely surprised. South Africa cannot bully its way to victory over the All Blacks (Jerome Kaino versus Mohoje is a mismatch).’
If it’s Juan Smith-type blindside we seek, look no further than du Toit, rangy, skilled, and tireless, but in no way a questionable player.
Losing to Argentina and Ireland is solid ammunition for Coetzee to claim underdog status at a tough place to win. But he makes his own case harder when he refuses to solve his hooker problem by selecting Malcolm Marx and Bismarck, refuses to replace misfiring Beast Mtawarira with fire-headed 127 kg Steven Kitshoff, refuses to start du Toit, and won’t even experiment with Jaco Kriel at opensider.
Coetzee has expelled Willie le Roux – who might have loved the wide open style of Salta’s game. He has dropped JP Pietersen, who for all his faults, was not often steamrolled on the short side. He explained his poor results (where almost every try conceded has been from long range up the blindside due to poor realignment) as part of a process of change.
Change to what? His backline attack looks more and more bunched, with the strange outcome that when Steyn came on, the ball actually skipped faster to the outside backs.
This is a battle for true underdog status. I will give Cheika the nod, but only by a nose (a nose out of joint).
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.