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NRL finals: The real deal or a done deal?

Are the Doggies a chance in 2018? (AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
Expert
5th September, 2016
6

What a top eight we have! Class, military-like precision, boredom, power and risk.

I’ll let you work out which team fits which. Each team, in theory, has a shot, though teams in the bottom half will face four long weeks of football and odds that have proven impossible in the past.

History tells us that the most important aspect over the course of the next month will be momentum. Something that is a hard thing to gauge.

» The Roar’s complete guide to the 2016 NRL Finals

The notion of peaking at the right time and player unavailability due to injury or suspension are often cited as essential ingredients, yet league is a far more inaccurate science than that.

Over the last fifteen or so years, no team has limped over the line with a busted playing group.

The Cowboys (2015) and Rabbitohs (2014) went into finals time with near full rosters as did the Roosters (2013) and Storm (2012).

The amazing achievement of the Tigers (2005) was the perfect example of a settled team playing with confidence at the right time of the year.

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Along with injuries, there are other elements that could be just as crucial for teams either climbing NRL’s Everest or having their campaign crippled beyond repair.

For Melbourne, as always, Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk are the keys to another premiership.

With a continuation of the clinical offense they showed against the Sharks on Saturday, the Storm are clearly good enough to take the title; their ladder position makes this obvious.

The danger for Melbourne is always injury or suspension to these two. The depth and discipline in the forwards and the speed and power in the backs is undeniable. The only thing that could stand in their way is a better team on the day. Melbourne rarely shoots itself in the foot.

The Raiders look a million bucks and with a home semi in week one, they firm as a potential grand finalist. The loss of Blake Austin didn’t appear to weaken their attack against a desperate Tigers’ outfit and their immense size has caused every side problems. Their improved defence is a further good sign.

The problem for the Raiders is the unknown waters in which they now tread. With little finals experience, who knows how they will start the big games.

There were nervy moments with the ball early on against Wests’ on Sunday and the challenge for Ricky Stuart will be to keep the young and enthusiastic backline composed in the big moments. If Jordan Rapana and Joseph Leilua continue in their current form, every backline needs to sharpen up defensively.

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The Sharks appear to be faltering. Four of their last six have been lost, including a draw. They may regroup, yet their play seems to have looked a little desperate over the last few weeks – as though they realise the opportunity they have created for themselves might be slipping away.

They too, need to let the game come to them, show poise and not force the issue. Chad Townsend is now playing with the elite and he needs to recapture his form from earlier in the year for Cronulla to threaten.

Patience is the key for the Sharks. Andrew Fifita and Michael Ennis often fall victim to this and Fifita’s hap-hazard style, particularly, needs to be kept in check for the Sharks to advance.

The Cowboys lurked throughout the second half of the season and here they stand with as much chance as any. John Thurston is fit again, without him it does appear forlorn, and the meticulous organisation in attack is back.

If a side can dominate through the middle as the Roosters and Tigers did against the Cowboys during their slump in the latter stages of the year, they do look beatable.

Flair in attack behind a big and mobile pack might be the one thing that troubles the Cowboys more than anything else. It is interesting to note that they have lost to both the Raiders and Sharks this year and twice to the Storm; the teams that present that exact proposition for the Cowboys.

The Broncos are back despite a horrific run. Five wins in a row and Wayne Bennett has addressed the slump, citing the Origin period as the fundamental reason for it.

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Losing eight of eleven during the middle of the season might make some question their chances yet we should doubt him at our peril. We have seen this all before.

If Ben Hunt can play without any thought of 2015, Brisbane do have the organiser to scare the top four.

For Brisbane, their defensive intensity is the key. Their line speed and pressure on the Bulldogs’ attack (loose term) was outstanding and the best I have seen all year.

They don’t have the sheer size to match the forward packs of the Raiders, Sharks and Storm, they rely more on defensive pressure, the off-loads of workers like Corey Parker and a consistent work ethic across the pack.

To do this successfully for four weeks might be the biggest challenge for the Broncos, yet if they can get through the first two weeks injury free, Bennett might be able to weave his magic for an eighth premiership.

Penrith have the momentum thing under control already. Seven of their last eight says enough about that. They have size, speed, confidence and most importantly, x-factor players such as Bryce Cartwright and Nathan Cleary that other teams, at this stage, have not quite learned how to deal with successfully.

Immaturity and over enthusiasm could be their downfall. The semi-finals are a little different, as we all know. The whistle is blown a little less and the grind really sets in.

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Trent Merrin and Peter Wallace could be vital in providing a calming presence for their otherwise inexperienced pack.

The Dogs look like a wounded pooch after a confrontation with a much more skilful and powerful dog. Battered and bruised, they surely can’t do what they have done so many times before.

In 2014 they clawed from fifth all the way to the big dance, with Penrith and Melbourne among their victims. All achieved with the same question marks placed over their attack.

For the Bulldogs, their biggest challenge will be scoring enough points to beat anyone. At the moment their kicking game is appalling, goal kicking weak and method of attack one dimensional and pedestrian.

Yet to write off the Dogs is foolish as the value of a monster pack is never more vital than in the finals. The return of Sam Kasiano will give them more attacking options, however, unless Josh Reynold and Moses Mbye can ignite, their days seem numbered.

The last team in is usually one of the first teams out, yet the resilience the Titans have shown throughout the year might translate into a surprise on Friday night. Almost every performance has been competitive and Neil Henry has done the most outstanding job in the league in light of projections at the start of the year.

The mid-season additions have added to a squad that appeared to lack depth, yet they have played through the year with a few significant outs such as Kane Elgey and Matt Srama without too much difficulty.

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The attention given to the arrival of Jarryd Hayne has probably deflected the lens away from Ash Taylor leading into the finals. This can only help Taylor and Zeb Taia, Ryan James and Luke Douglas need to fire in order for the Titans to match the powerful packs they will face.

It’s hard to imagine being disappointed by the weekend of football ahead. Perhaps aside from the venue for the Panthers and Bulldogs clash.

Aside from that, what we will know is that two teams will go and two will look like grand finalists. The predictable scenario will be mad Monday for the Titans and Bulldogs and a week off for Melbourne and Canberra.

Could someone throw a spanner in the works? The Cowboys, Sharks and Broncos are waiting in the wings if someone does.

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