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2016 NRL finals series: Week one preview

Roar Guru
6th September, 2016
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Imagine the entertainment to be found from mid-season transfers. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Roar Guru
6th September, 2016
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After 26 gruelling rounds of thrilling action, judiciary and referee controversy, and a major salary cap scandal which has cost the Parramatta Eels a finals berth, September has arrived.

It kicks off this Friday night with a sudden death elimination final between the Broncos and Titans at Suncorp Stadium.

Last year’s beaten grand finalists, the Broncos, will enter the finals having rediscovered their best form at the right time, notching wins over the Dragons, Eels, Bulldogs, Storm and Roosters in the final month of the regular season.

» The Roar’s complete guide to the 2016 NRL Finals

They will attempt to become the first team since the Wests Tigers to win four consecutive finals en route to the premiership, and that starts when they face the Titans this Friday night.

Saturday will see a qualifying final double header, with the Raiders and Sharks to face off just after sunset, while later that night minor premiers the Storm host reigning premiers the Cowboys at AAMI Park.

Sunday will see the only all-Sydney final of the weekend, with the Panthers and Bulldogs to face off in a sudden death elimination final on neutral soil.

Here is the detailed preview of each of the four finals matches to be played this weekend.

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Broncos [5] versus Titans [8]
Friday, September 9
7:55pm
Suncorp Stadium

Last meeting in a final: Broncos 40-32 at Cbus Super Stadium, third qualifying final, 2009.

This season: Broncos 24-16 at Cbus Super Stadium, Round 5.

After reaching last year’s grand final in Wayne Bennett’s first year back at Red Hill following three-year coaching stints at the Dragons and Knights, many thought the Brisbane Broncos could go one better this year.

But while they have qualified for the finals for the third consecutive year, a very poor middle patch of the season, in which they lost eight of eleven matches between Rounds 9 and 21, was what cost them the double chance.

However, the Broncos were able to find form at the right time, winning their past five matches since a Round 21 loss to the Roosters to secure an all-important home elimination final against the Gold Coast Titans.

If they are to break what is currently their longest premiership drought, they must do what no club in either the AFL or NRL has been able to do since both leagues implemented the current finals system in 2000 and 2012 respectively – win the premiership from outside the top four.

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Only the Bulldogs in 2014 were able to reach the grand final from outside the top four, before losing to the South Sydney Rabbitohs 30-6 in the decider. They are also the last team to win a premiership from outside the top four, back in 1995.

But after returning to top form in the final five rounds, the Broncos will enter the finals series high on confidence and will face a Titans side that will be appearing in its first finals series since 2010.

Having lost Nate Myles and James Roberts before the season began, and having finished 14th in each of the last two years, not many gave the tenth-year club a chance of returning to September this year.

However, its no-nonsense approach towards the serious side of things, and the late-season recruitment of Jarryd Hayne, has helped the club finish eighth at the end of the regular season.

With the Broncos and Cowboys also qualifying for the finals, this is the first time that all three Queensland sides will feature in September in the same season, thus multiplying the state’s chances of premiership glory this year.

The Broncos and Titans met just once this year, with the Broncos claiming a 24-16 victory on the Gold Coast on April Fools’ Day in Round 5.

For the winner: a trip to either Melbourne or Townsville in the second week of the finals to face the loser of the Storm versus Cowboys qualifying final.

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For the loser: season over, and for the Broncos, their longest premiership drought stretches beyond a decade.

Prediction: Broncos by 14 points.

Raiders [2] versus Sharks [3]
Saturday, September 10
5:35pm
GIO Stadium

Last meeting in a final: Raiders 34-16 at GIO Stadium, second elimination final, 2012.

This season: Sharks 40-16 at GIO Stadium, Round 7; Raiders 30-14 at Southern Cross Group Stadium, Round 22.

The second qualifying final will see two sides with high premiership hopes go head to head at GIO Stadium for the right to go straight to week three of the finals series.

Both the Raiders and Sharks have emerged as the teams to watch this year, with both clubs registering the two longest winning streaks this season with ten (between Rounds 15-26) and fifteen (between Rounds 4-20) respectively.

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In his third year as coach of the club in which he featured in each of their three premiership victories, Ricky Stuart has led the Green Machine back to their first finals series since 2012, and their best regular season result since 1995.

This has been attributed to the season-long form of players such as captain Jarrod Croker, the halves pairing of Blake Austin and Aidan Sezer and fullback Jack Wighton, who will take his place after being cleared of a shoulder charge by the tribunal on Tuesday night.

Stuart, who coached the Sydney Roosters to premiership glory in his rookie year of 2002, is now the man the team and their fans will bank their trust on as they seek to win their first premiership since 1994.

Their bid will start on Saturday afternoon against the Sharks, who will enter September in poor form, winning just one match since Round 20 and dropping from the top of the ladder to third by Round 26.

Before that form slump, though, the Sharks had performed very well to raise their fans’ hopes that a breakthrough premiership might be forthcoming this year.

After a couple of lean years, Ben Barba has rediscovered his Dally M Medal-winning form from 2012, the year he led the Bulldogs to the grand final, only for them to lose to the Melbourne Storm.

Veterans Michael Ennis, who will retire at the end of this season, and captain Paul Gallen, whose future is still uncertain, have also played their part, as have winger Valentine Holmes and Origin representatives Jack Bird and Wade Graham.

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Their third-place finish, their best regular season result since 2008, is a far cry from the embarrassing lows of 2014 when the ASADA scandal and the suspension of coach Shane Flanagan saw the club finish with the wooden spoon.

Two years on and one of the biggest fairytales in NRL history could finish with the Sharks celebrating their maiden premiership in what is their 50th year in the competition.

But the question will remain – was their form slump a sign of what’s to come in September, or could it be what they exactly need as they attempt to end one of sport’s longest droughts?

For the winner: a week off and a home preliminary final in Sydney.

For the loser: a date with either the Panthers or Bulldogs in a semi-final.

Prediction: Raiders by 12 points.

Storm [1] versus Cowboys [4]
Saturday, September 10
7:55pm
AAMI Park

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Last meeting in a final: Cowboys 32-12 at AAMI Park, first preliminary final, 2015.

This season: Storm 15-14 at Suncorp Stadium, Round 10; Storm 16-8 at 1300SMILES Stadium, Round 21.

Year after year since their 2012 premiership victory, the Melbourne Storm have been tipped to regress slowly, especially with their club veterans creeping well into their 30s.

But even without fullback Billy Slater, who has missed all but one match this year following complications from shoulder surgery which he underwent last year, the Storm proved to be the most consistent team over 26 rounds.

Their season was highlighted by the form of winger Suliasi Vunivalu, whose 22 tries this year is the most by any debut player in NRL history, just one more try than what Israel Folau managed in the club’s tainted 2007 season.

By beating the Sharks 26-6 at AAMI Park last week, the Storm claimed their second legitimate minor premiership and first since 2011. However, it will not mean anything unless Craig Bellamy’s men can claim a third premiership on October 2.

They will also want to bury some demons when they face the Cowboys this Saturday night.

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The last time the two sides met in Melbourne, the Cowboys ambushed the Storm 32-12 to reach just their second grand final, in which they would beat the Broncos in extra time to win their maiden premiership.

Again, Johnathan Thurston will be the club’s brains trust as they seek to become the first team since the Broncos in 1992-3 to successfully defend a premiership in a unified competition.

The Cowboys sealed their place in the top four by beating the Gold Coast Titans at home last week, and will head to the AFL capital full of confidence that it can again beat the Storm on their home deck.

They will also enter the match on the back of three straight wins, of which only one was against a fellow finalist, the Bulldogs, at Belmore in Round 25.

With the Storm being referred to as Queensland’s “fourth” NRL team (they are led by current Maroons captain Cameron Smith), there will be a lot of interest in this match, which, with no AFL finals on Saturday night, should be a sell out.

For the winner: a home preliminary final. If the Cowboys win, their home preliminary final will be in Brisbane.

For the loser: a semi-final date with either the Broncos or Titans at home in week two.

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Prediction: Cowboys by ten points.

Panthers [6] versus Bulldogs [7]
Sunday, September 11
4:10pm
Allianz Stadium

Last meeting in a final: Bulldogs 18-12 at ANZ Stadium, first preliminary final, 2014.

This season: Bulldogs 18-16 at Pepper Stadium, Round 2.

The last of the four finals this weekend sees an all-Sydney elimination final between the Panthers and Bulldogs at a neutral venue.

Perhaps the NRL should be breathing a sigh of relief following the Panthers’ 36-6 win over the Sea Eagles last Sunday, which gave them the right to contest this match either at ANZ or Allianz Stadium.

Because had they lost, they would’ve finished seventh (and the Bulldogs sixth), and the match would’ve been played at ANZ Stadium, which is the Dogs’ regular home ground.

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With the Olympic stadium already being used by the AFL for the Sydney Swans versus GWS Giants match on Saturday, it would’ve given ground management 24 hours in which to convert the ground from an AFL oval to an NRL field.

The Panthers were also not permitted to use Pepper Stadium, their home ground, to host the match because it is not up to finals standard, so they decided to use Allianz Stadium in Moore Park instead.

Anthony Griffin’s men will enter their second finals series in three years in very good form, having won seven of their last eight matches with their only loss being in golden point to the New Zealand Warriors in Round 21.

With stars such as captain Matt Moylan and rookie halfback Nathan Cleary, the Panthers have emerged as an exciting team to watch in 2016 and certainly could’ve won more matches than the 14 they managed (just two of their ten losses were by double figure margins).

One of their most heartbreaking losses included in Round 2 when the Bulldogs scored the match winning try in the final minute, leaving it to rookie Kerrod Holland to kick the conversion to win it for them 18-16.

Des Hasler’s men will enter the finals in very poor form, having lost four of their last seven matches including their last three in succession to finish seventh on the ladder.

However, the Dogs have been there and done that before, most notably in 2014 when they reached the grand final after finishing that season in the same position they have this year.

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That year, they won consecutive sudden death matches against the Storm (in Melbourne), Sea Eagles and their opponents this Sunday, the Panthers, to reach the decider where their run eventually took its toll as they lost to the Rabbitohs.

The Panthers, who were then coached by Ivan Cleary, had defied a horror injury toll in 2014 to finish fourth on the ladder and then upset the Sydney Roosters in their qualifying final.

Fast forward to now and under Anthony Griffin, who replaced Cleary at the end of last season after their disappointing 11th-placed finish, the club will be out to make the most of just their third finals campaign since 2004.

For the winner: either a trip to Canberra to face the Raiders, or stay at home to face the Sharks, in the semi-final.

For the loser: season over.

Prediction: Panthers by 18 points.

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