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An in-form Panthers against a badly out of sorts Bulldogs. So the result looks straightforward right? Not necessarily.
Penrith Panthers versus Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
4.10pm, Sunday 11 September, Allianz Stadium
Overall: This will be the 99th meeting of these two clubs dating back 50 years to the Panthers inclusion in the NSWRL. The ledger reads Bulldogs 57, Panthers 38 and three draws.
Finals: Would you believe in all those years these two sides have only met three timesbefore in the finals: In 1997 when the Panthers beat the Bulldogs 15-14 in a Super League semi; and in the 2004 preliminary final in 2004 where the Dogs beat the Panthers en-route to the premiership, and in the 2014 prelim where the Dogs beat the injured Panthers the week before getting smacked by the Rabbitohs in the big one.
The last ten: The last ten games between the sides have been split at five apiece. The Dogs have won the last to between the sides, including the round two match back in March this year when the Kerrod Holland kicked the sideline conversion to steal the match.
2016 records against top eight sides: The Panthers have played eleven games against the other finalists this year. They have won just four of those matches: Round 3 vs Broncos, Round 9 vs Raiders, Round 20 vs Broncos and Round 25 vs Titans.
Their only win against a top four side was in Round 9, courtesy of the video referee allowing an illegal wall.
The Bulldogs have played ten games against the other sides in the top eight and have also won just four of them: Round 2 vs Panthers, Round 6 vs Storm, Round 8 vs Titans and Round 16 vs Broncos. They’ve lost their last three games against other finalists.
At this Venue: Allianz The 2004 Preliminary final that was won by the Bulldogs is the only game played between these two sides at this venue. The Panthers have a 50 per cent win record at the ground. The Bulldogs have a 62% winning record at the ground.
Further, the Bulldogs have played 68 games at Allianz Stadium, whereas the Panthers have only played 40 there. It is clearly a venue that advantages the Bulldogs and their supporter base.
The Referees: Chris James has refereed one match between these sides. It was back in 2009 and the Bulldogs won 28-20. Jarred Maxwell has also done just one match between these sides. In 2008 the Panthers beat the Bulldogs 30-4.
Scoring by quarters
As Allianz Stadium is effectively a neutral venue for both these sides I have used both of their overall average scoring patterns.
Panthers attack / Bulldogs defence
| 0m-20m | 21m-40m | 41m-60m | 61m-80m | Extra | Totals | |
| Panthers Attack | 5.0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 22.5 |
| Bulldogs Defence | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 0 | 18.9 |
| Average | 4.8 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 0 | 20.7 |
The Panthers scoring is fairly even, with a bit of a wet sail in the second half. This also corresponds to the Bulldogs least effective period in defence.
Bulldogs attack / Panthers defence
| 0m-20m | 21m-40m | 41m-60m | 61m-80m | Extra | Totals | |
| Bulldogs attack | 5.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 0.2 | 22.9 |
| Panthers defence | 4.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 0.2 | 20.6 |
| Average | 5 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 0.2 | 21.7 |
The Bulldogs attach does most of its damage in the 20 minutes before half time. Unfortunately for the Panthers, this is their second most vulnerable time in defence.
Defence
Team Stats – average per game 2016
| Stat | Panthers | Bulldogs | Difference |
| Line breaks conceded | 4.2 (8th) | 3.4 (4th) | +0.8 Panthers |
| Missed tackles | 31.4 (15th) | 23.5 (4th) | +7.9 Panthers |
| Trys conceded | 3.3 (5th) | 3.3 (5th) | = |
| Meters conceded | 1352 (7th) | 1445 (12th) | +93 Bulldogs |
| Penalties conceded | 6.8 (8th) | 6.4 (4th) | +0.4 Panthers |
We all know that the Panthers can score points, however – as you can see above – they have definite defensive frailties. They are the second worst for missed tackles in the NRL this year after the Knights.
However, their scrambling defence seems to be alright as they only concede the same amount of tries as the Bulldogs, whose defence is better in some ways – notably not metres conceded though.
Player Stats
| Stat | Panthers | Bulldogs |
| Tackles made | Trent Merrin – 35 Peter Wallace – 33 Bryce Cartwright – 28 |
Michael Lichaa – 50 James Graham – 39 Aidan Tolman – 35 |
| Missed tackles | Peter Wallace – 2.9
James Fisher-Harris – 2.8 |
Josh Jackson – 2.5 Moses Mbye – 2.5 Josh Reynolds – 2.2 |
| Penalties conceded | Peter Wallace – 19 Bryce Cartwright – 15 Trent Merrin – 14 |
James Graham – 20 Josh Jackson – 17 David Klemmer – 14 |
| Errors | Bryce Cartwright – 30 Waqa Blake – 24 Josh Mansour – 22 |
Josh Reynolds – 27 Curtis Rona – 22 Moses Mbye – 20 |
Michael Lichaa is a tackling machine indeed. However, his service out of dummy half is questionable. Notably Des Hasler has signed Raiders under 20’s hooker Zac Woolford for next season. Speaking of tackling hookers, hasn’t Peter Wallace made a great transition this year.
A lot of us have very big opinions of Bryce Cartwright. In attack he is a powerful creative force. However, in defence he is a liability. His average of 2.8 misses a match is well known to opposition attacks and a key reason that he has not yet played in sky blue yet.
On top of that he gives away a fair few penalties and makes a lot of errors. Notably Nathan Cleary does not feature in the Panthers worst defenders.
Moses Mbye and Josh Reynolds are two of the Bulldogs worst three defenders however. Both are under lots of pressure to get the Bulldogs attack working and they’ll also be under lots of pressure in defence.
Attack
| Stat | Panthers | Bulldogs | Difference |
| Line breaks | 4.5 (4th) | 3.9 (10th) | +0.6 Panthers |
| Tackle breaks | 27.4 (4th) | 23.3 (14th) | +4.1 Panthers |
| Trys scored | 4 (5th) | 3.8 (7th) | +0.2 Panthers |
| Meters made | 1404 (6th) | 1410 (5th) | = |
| Penalties received | 7.4 (3rd) | 5.7 (16th) | +1.7 Panthers |
Since Round 20 the Bulldogs previously pretty good attack has almost stopped dead in the water. This, combined with the Panthers late season charge, sees the Panthers shade the Bulldogs in most attacking categories.
Of biggest concern to the Bulldogs would be their 14th ranking in the category of tackle breaks. That statistic is one of the key indicators of a team’s effort and application as the more a side wants to win, the harder they enter the collision and the more tackles they break.
The Bulldogs have been consistently in the top four in this stat for years now. What is going wrong at Belmore that has seen them drop off so much? A side that boasts James Graham, David Klemmer, Sam Kasiano, Greg Eastwood, the Morris Twins and Tony Williams should be doing far better than that.
Both sides make pretty good meterage and – while the Panthers get the benefit of the refs whistle frequently – the Bulldogs receive less penalties than any other team.
All of this said, as bad as things have been for the Dogs recently, I know that switch can be flicked very quickly in a team of this calibre.
Having said that, the Panthers have entered this finals series with their tails up and could put the Bulldogs away brutally in this game.
Player Stats
| Stat | Panthers | Bulldogs |
| Tackle breaks | Josh Mansour – 4.6 Tyrone Peachey – 3.8 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 2.7 |
Brett Morris – 4.1 Sam Perrett – 2.3 Tony Williams – 2.1 |
| Line breaks | Josh Mansour – 19 Tyrone Peachey – 13 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 11 |
Sam Perrett – 17 Curtis Rona – 12 |
| Metres gained | Josh Mansour – 158 Trent Merrin – 137 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 118 |
David Klemmer – 154 James Graham – 147 Aidan Tolman – 112 |
| Trys scored | Josh Mansour – 15 Tyrone Peachey – 11 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 10 |
Sam Perrett – 11 Curtis Rona – 11 Brett Morris – 10 |
| Try assists | Matt Moylan – 17 Bryce Cartwright – 10 |
Moses Mbye – 16 Josh Reynolds – 9 |
| Line break assists | Matt Moylan – 20 Bryce Cartwright – 10 |
Moses Mbye – 14 Josh Reynolds – 7 |
Josh Manour is a very good player and he leads the way for the Panthers attack from his position on the wing. His tackle breaks, metres gained and trys scored are first class.
Matt Moylan has now returned to the top of his playmaking powers and is well supported by Bryce Cartwright and the – in my opinion – NRL Rookie of the Year Nathan Cleary.
As opposed to the Panthers who make their biggest metres in the outside backs, the Bulldogs power forwards are their biggest metre eaters. Klemmer, Graham and Tolman all make big metres and the Panthers forwards will have their work cut out for them trying to limit their damage.
However, Reynolds and Mbye must perform at their best if the Bulldogs are to win this game.
The Danger Men
Matt Moylan has 20 line break assists and 17 try assists to his name this year and I reckon he has only just gotten out of second gear. He is now a genuine leader and will – I believe – justify the comparisons to future Immortal Darren Lockyer sooner rather than later.
Josh Mansour’s ball returns are vital to his team’s fortunes. He runs the ball back at speed and with little concern for his own safety. As a result he makes big metres and is highly influential to the Panthers attacking fortunes.
My boss Tim Gavel made fun of me on air during our Round 1 call of the Raiders vs Panthers match in Canberra when I espoused that Trent Merrin was the buy of the season.
True, it was early days. But 26 rounds later the only competition he has for that title are Ashley Taylor, James Maloney, Joe Tapine and Elliot Whitehead. And I reckon Mr Merrin is right up there. His work rate is huge and he can sniff out a try given half the chance. His Borat impression is also first rate. Not sure how that will effect this match though…
Brett Morris is back at fullback. I would have made that change as soon as he was fit. His control of the back three and ability to chime into the backline may see the Bulldogs attack suddenly revitalised.
Josh Reynolds. Yes, it is no secret that I’m a huge fan of the Bulldogs who, in spite of his brain explosions, is just a wonderful rugby league player. He loves the game and his fans and he’s be in the seats closest to the ground as a spectator if he wasn’t playing. If he has a big game the Panthers are in trouble.
Tony Williams has had a garbage season. The man they call T-Rex has been a fringe first grader this season and has never really lived up to his enormous potential. I’ll be surprised if his next contract isn’t in England. However, if he can pull out his A-Game for this match it could be devastating. If Des can get the big unit up for it the Dogs will probably progress.
Who is going to win and why
The Panthers form is strong and the Bulldogs form is poor. While the Dogs could turn up with their A game and demolish the Panthers sometimes brittle defence, lots of Dogs players have to suddenly find form for this to happen. However, finals are a whole different ball game.
While the Dogs have finals experience to burn, the Panthers have Trent Merrin and just three players remaining from their finals foray in 2014 who have been on the big stage, plus an 18-year-old half back.
I’m going a Dogs win.
Prediction: Bulldogs by 6