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Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs: NRL elimination final preview and prediction

8th September, 2016
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James Graham sees the writing on the wall if his side sign Aaron Woods. (Photo by Colin Whelan copyright © nrlphotos.com)
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8th September, 2016
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In a match that wasn’t locked in until the last game of the regular season, the young Penrith Panthers take on the Canterbury Bulldogs in the second elimination final, at Allianz Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

The Penrith Panthers were in grave danger of missing the top eight in 2016, as they did last season.

Despite their talent and ability to perform – as they did in 2014, when they were knocked out by the Bulldogs in the preliminary final – the injury bug and a lack of form has hit hard over the last couple of seasons.

In 2015, many tipped them for something very good, but they ended in 11th spot. This season they have elevated themselves to sixth, with a strong finish to the season earning a ‘home’ final.

Under the NRL’s stadium policy for NRL finals matches, Penrith have been forced to play the game at Allianz Stadium, but then again that is better than walking onto the Bulldogs home turf at Homebush.

Unlike the Panthers, who finished the season with a bang, Canterbury have dropped down the table from six weeks ago, leading to questions over their play and output, as well as their line-up.

Losing to the South Sydney Rabbitohs at home last week by 18 points with a chance to sew up a home final was nearly unforgivable. They didn’t show up and it leaves a lot of questions for this weekend.

They’ve been dishing up weak defence and poor attack, with no direction from their halves and not enough running from their forwards.

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Last five meetings
2016, Round 2 – Panthers 16 defeated by Bulldogs 18 at Pepper Stadium
2015, Round 15 – Bulldogs 24 defeat Panthers 12 at ANZ Stadium
2015, Round 1 – Panthers 24 defeat Bulldogs 18 at Pepper Stadium
2014, Finals – Panthers 12 defeated by Bulldogs 18 at ANZ Stadium
2014, Round 21 – Bulldogs 16 defeated by Pannthers 22 at ANZ Stadium

Team news
For the Panthers, Moses Leota has been added as 18th man in an otherwise unchanged line-up.

The Bulldogs are without fullback Will Hopoate, due to his choice not to play on Sunday due to his religious beliefs, which is a massive blow.

Brett Morris will shift to custodian, Tyrone Phillips comes onto the wing, Sam Kasiano returns from suspension onto the bench, and Danny Fualalo has been named as 18th man.

Key players
Matt Moylan is the key for the Mountain Men, because without him the team can’t pull off their game plan.

Apart from his fantastic defensive play and natural ability to read the game at both ends of the park, the New South Wales State of Origin fullback has been in strong form and is combining well young halves Nathan Cleary and Bryce Cartwright.

The prospect of those three playing on the back of a forward pack that has the ability to turn it on at any given moment must scare Bulldogs supporters.

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The bottom line though, if Moylan doesn’t fire then neither do Penrith – and that covers attack and defence.

The Dogs’ key player is and the man in the No.1 jersey – without Morris, they might as well not show up.

While Hopoate is likely to play in the second and third week of the finals if they make it, with the grand final flagged as being a discussion the man will have with his club if needs be.

Either way, Morris needs to slot in and gel with Moses Mbye and Josh Reynolds, providing stability and a strong running game at the back.

The Des Hasler finals effect
Des Hasler is one of the most experienced coaches in the game, and his teams peak at the right end of the season.

This year though, his side have dropped off at the back end, losing three in a row coming into the biggest four weeks of the season.

But the way Hasler runs his sides, they will be primed and ready for the match, no matter their form guide.

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If he can get Reynolds and Mbye combining and communicating, then the Dogs are a strong chance of getting through to the second week of the finals.

How much will inexperience count for Penrith?
The Panthers are a young side with a lot of raw talent and a coach in Anthony Griffin who hasn’t had a lot of experience in the finals, despite spending the early part of his career at the Broncos.

Their starting forward pack includes guys like Leilani Latu, Suaia Matagi, Isaah Yeo and James Fisher-Harris who are all still incredibly young and inexperienced.

Against one of the most brutal packs in the competition, with the likes of James Graham and Aiden Tolman leading, how Penrith stand up in the first 20 minutes may determine their season.

So, who wins it?
The Bulldogs are unsettled and their form has been patchy – they finished seventh, when only a short time ago they were challenging for the four.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have been gaining momentum and form, with their young halves combination improving by the week.

Penrith should run away with this, and it could well be a convincing scoreline.

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Prediction: Panthers by 12.

Key information
Kick-off: 4:10pm (AEST)
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Betting: Broncos $1.28, Titans $3.80
TV: Live, Nine Network (3:30pm), Fox Sports 501 (3:20pm)
Overall record: Played 89, Bulldogs 51, Panthers 35, Drawn 3
History in finals: Played 3, Bulldogs 2, Panthers 1
Last five: Bulldogs 3, Panthers 2
History at venue: Played 1, Bulldogs 1, Panthers 0
Referees: Jared Maxwell and Chris James

Penrith Panthers
1. Matt Moylan 2. Josh Mansour 3. Waqa Blake 4. Tyrone Peachey 5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 6. Bryce Cartwright 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Leilani Latu 9. Peter Wallace 10. Suaia Matagi 11. Isaah Yeo 12. James Fisher-Harris 13. Trent Merrin
Interchange: 14. Sitaleki Akauola 15. Jeremy Latimore 16. Chris Grevsmuhl 17. Zak Hardaker 20. Moses Leota

Canterbury Bulldogs
1. Brett Morris 2. Tyrone Phillips 3. Josh Morris 4. Kerrod Holland 5. Curtis Rona 6. Josh Reynolds 7. Moses Mbye 8. Aiden Tolman 9. Michael Lichaa 10. James Graham 11. Josh Jackson 12. Greg Eastwood 13. David Klemmer
Interchange: 14. Sam Kasiano 15. Tim Browne 16. Tony Williams 17. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 19. Danny Fualalo

Don’t forget The Roar will carry live coverage of every NRL finals match.

Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde

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