G’day Roarers! Group 1 racing in Sydney kicks off this Saturday at Rosehill with the stallion making $1 Million Golden Rose (1400m) drawing together a crack bunch of colts and geldings, as well as three very capable fillies.
For the life of me, I cannot believe Yankee Rose got to as much as $13. It is quite the common theme with punters that they focus on the immediate present and don’t look back.
Well we have to with Yankee Rose. She spanked Astern and Good Standing in the Slipper, and repeated the dose to Good Standing and Omei Sword in the Sires Produce. She would have done the same in the Champagne but was scratched due to her troublesome feet.
I’ll agree that her trials have been poor, but keep in mind she didn’t wear blinkers, and she produced similar prior to almost snatching the Slipper. Looked much better with the blinkers on last Sunday at the Sunny Coast, and for mine, if she brings her best form, I think she beats these.
Scared stiff of Impending. I was keen on him first up in the Run To The Rose and he was luckless behind stablemate Astern. He got held up for most of the straight with no real clear air and was very good in defeat. He’ll get the run of the race from gate two, enormous upside a top three finish is expected.
I think the best roughie in the race is Nikitas. Gee I thought his run in the Run To The Rose was full of merit given he was wide no cover for the trip yet stuck on really well to be only beaten just under two lengths. He’ll be better at 1400m, fitter, and if he can get cover from the tricky draw, I think he’ll run a huge race and I know the stable are quietly confident of him giving this race a shake.
But for me I am clearly with Yankee Rose, to beat Impending, Nikitas and Omei Sword. Nothing against Omei Sword, I think she is a star. But the negatives are that this race has been more of an afterthought and she did get smashed by Yankee Rose in the Autumn. Plus the recent record of Moreira in Sydney, as good as he is, has been poor.
The other feature race at Rosehill is the Theo Marks Stakes (1300m). Could potentially be a Group 1 form reference for later in the Spring, and I’ve landed with Southern Legend. He trialled super prior to resuming at Randwick over 1000m where he chased hard with the big weight to nab Group 1 performer Haptic right on the line. He tumbles 7kg in weight, draws well and second up last time in, he bolted up over 1200m here. Happy to be in his corner.
In terms of weighted runners, the best is clearly Counterattack. He performed very well during the Autumn/Winter, and was solid in defeat behind Under The Louvre in what has turned out to be a hot form race. His trials have been outstanding, and with a rating of 100, as well as being Group l class, 2.5kg over the minimum sees him as a major contender.
Messene could be one to include at odds. His effort in the Show County (1200m) was full of merit given he bungled the start and was back against his normal pattern yet came wide and charged home to run third. I am confident he’ll turn the tables on Tycoon Tara, and he does have a very good second up record.
I think Southern Legend is the clear way to go, ahead of Counterattack, Messene and Rebel Dane
On paper, it would seem that Black Heart Bart has a mortgage on the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) this Saturday at Flemington, and quite frankly, I agree. He had it run to suit him in the Memsie Stakes (1400m) but he still had to the job done and he did it emphatically. The two negatives I have with him are that he has never raced second up at the mile before, Oliver has never ridden him and he does draw awkwardly.
That being said, he is the clear horse to beat and I can’t see anything from the Memsie turning the tables.
It is D-Day for Alpine Eagle IMO. He has long been touted as an A-Grade galloper but for the most part, he has been a pretender rather than a contender. He too resumed in the Memsie and it was a pass mark for mine without setting the world on fire. He has a really good record in big races at Flemington, and he does tend to save his best for here. I think if he is ever going to get a major, this is potentially it.
If we were dealing with a rain affected track, I’d be all over Our Ivanhowe. The Caulfield Cup placegetter stamped himself as one of the best in the country with a stunning triumph in the Doomben Cup, ironically on a firm surface.
His latest jump out was nothing short of outstanding and hearing interviews with Lee Freedman, he is very bullish. I think he could win either the Caulfield or Melbourne Cup. He is a big watch here.
Going with Black Heart Bart though, to beat Alpine Eagle, Our Ivanhowe and Tarzino.
The other key race to look at is the Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m), where we see six runners resuming. I think a horse that has had the run under the belt, Under The Louvre, is close to a good thing.
He had no right to finish as close as he did when resuming at Caulfield, making up a stack of ground to run a close second to speedster Redzel. Ran second in this race last year, but 12 months on he is a much better horse. Drawn to stalk and ambush – I’d be shocked if he didn’t win/look the winner.
Kinglike is the watch horse. Only had one run for Gerald Ryan, which came in the Arrowfield during The Championships where he ran fourth behind three serious Group 1 gallopers. His recent Rosehill trial was inconclusive given he was never really in the clear, but the early market support he has come here to win first up. He did win the Danehill at this corresponding meeting last year, beating home several subsequent winners including a couple of Stakes winners.
The one that could go well fresh is Durendal, who is first up. He has a really good record at the track/distance and though his first up stats don’t read the best, his jump outs have been encouraging. I could happily entertain him at $21+.
I’ll be the first to say it- I don’t think Xtravagant will win a race in Melbourne this Spring. The horse they call ‘Sex On Legs’. His first Flemington jump out, to my eye, was plain awful and though he has improved since, I can’t entertain. Also, his overall form does read very hazy. The margins might be big, but keep in mind he hasn’t beaten much.
Under The Louvre a good thing, over Kinglike, Durendal and Santa Ana Lane.
There are several runners that have caught my eye at the trials that resume on Saturday. Here they are down below:
Cool Chap- Flemington R4
Bullrush- Rosehill R3
Denmagic- Rosehill R8
Ravi- Rosehill R8
Invinzabeel- Rosehill R9
Good luck and happy punting!
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