They entered first, but the Gold Coast Suns are now running second to the rampant Greater Western Sydney Giants.

You don’t get many second chances in pro sports, but the Suns, by virtue of their role in last and this season’s trade period, have managed to manufacture one.

We don’t hear about the Suns much. They play on the Gold Coast, have a two-time Brownlow medallist on their list, and by virtue of their failure to capitalise on bountiful entry concessions granted by the AFL, they’re seen as a team worthy of our pity.

Contrast that to the frothy coverage surrounding the rampant Giants, who are the anti-Suns in the way they have invested their AFL seed capital, and you wonder what makes some pundits tick.

GWS received some more generous concessions, as this research lays out.

But the difference is like the Suns getting a ten-foot ladder versus the Giants receiving a 12-foot ladder – it’ll still get you a long way to scaling a rooftop.

Through any prism, the Suns have failed their first test. This column won’t be looking back, other than to say the Giants have well and truly passed the stagnant Suns, who have flat-lined since Gary Ablett Junior’s shoulder was destroyed in a Brent Macaffer tackle.

The chart below shows the Giants and Suns’ 60-game rolling percentage, with each respective team’s first game the starting point of the data. For the techies in our midst, the calculations before game 60 are calculated using the total games played – game 59 is the average of the 59 games, game 27 is the average of the 27 games played and so on.

Suffice to say, this is telling.

The Suns rose (I won’t do that again I promise) sooner, but GWS have risen further and faster. Gold Coast have stagnated at a percentage of around 80 per cent since the middle of 2014 (coincidentally around the time Ablett’s shoulder exploded), where the Giants have begun to grow (sorry).

We qualitatively know what’s gone wrong at the Suns.

Take your pick from: shambolic culture, non-existent training facilities, injury luck, inability to compensate for that injury luck with an outstanding medical team, bad mature-age pick-ups, Ablett’s shoulder injury, the Curse of the Coast, Guy McKenna, Rodney Eade, or a relatively weak draft in the year of their pick bonanza.

You name it, and it’s probably stunted the Suns’ growth in some way.

From Round 4 this season, Gold Coast went 3-16 with home wins against St Kilda, Brisbane and Fremantle their lone salutes after a fast start to the year. They finished in the bottom six for the fifth time in their six seasons in the league.

Perhaps the biggest indictment on the club on the field is they lack a clear identity – ask ‘how’ the Suns play their football and you’re left scratching your head.

Current head coach Eade must wear some of the blame, but equally, this is beyond his direct control. The Suns have been utterly decimated by injury and absenteeism for almost all of their existence, reaching the dregs of their list in the past three years. The lack of continuity must play a role in their inability to put the package together.

Last season I wildly speculated that the Suns might already be rebuilding, after an offseason that saw them accumulate a bounty of high draft picks for 2015 and 2016.

Heading into the 2016 offseason, with two of their A-grade inaugural players seeking trades, the question is now not if it’s a rebuild, but how extensive the rebuild will be.

What are they worth?

Inaugural Suns Dion Prestia and Jaeger O’Meara are leaving their first football homes in the upcoming trade period.

They will join Charlie Dixon, Harley Bennell, and a bevy of second-tier talent that would fill out the bottom half of a premiership team as players who have sought a new beginning.

For the most part, Gold Coast have converted their wantaways into draft picks, stunting the team’s short-term growth and in many ways sending them back to the starting blocks when it comes to developing the team.

Once Prestia and O’Meara leave, there will be just 15 inaugural Suns remaining on the team’s list. In those first teamers’ place have come youngsters and the odd mature-age addition or two.

Replacing the duo with draft picks will continue the cycle anew; that looks the most likely outcome. So what can the Suns expect to receive for their hilt-rated talent?

Dion Prestia
An inside beast, Prestia is the kind of player who can go anonymous all season only to bob his head up and win a Brownlow medal – not that I’m saying Prestia will win one.

In his 81 games for the Suns, Prestia has averaged 23 disposals, nine contested possession wins and just shy of five clearances. His best season was the injury-shortened 2015 campaign, where he hinted at his potential as a Josh Kennedy-Matt Priddis workhorse type: 27 disposals, 14 contested possessions, 8.5 clearances and four tackles per game.

His injury history is chequered, like many Suns, with his most recent knee complaint requiring surgery and a half-season lay off. A knee injury also ended his 2015 season early, while his prior years were spotted with soft tissue niggles. At 24 years old, the likely suitor would hope two bad knee injuries is as much bad luck as structural issues.

There’s very little mystery as to where Prestia is headed: he nominated the Richmond Tigers as his destination, a choice which the Suns are anticipated to respect.

The Tigers hold pick six, but having traded out their second round pick to bring in Chris Yarran last season, currently hold pick 42 as their second-most valuable 2016 selection. It leaves them in something of a bind, albeit not a difficult one given Prestia’s age and talents.

Richmond must part with pick six, unless they are willing to wheel and deal their way to a lower first rounder through another deal and ship that on. Indeed, should Ty Vickery leave as a restricted free agent, it’s possible Hawthorn pay him to such an extent that the Tigers receive an end of first round compensation pick.

That would likely be too low to satiate Gold Coast, but it would mean the Tigers aren’t going without a high pick at a time where their recruitment department is under pressure.

Even then, like the Yarran trade a year ago, Prestia suits one of Richmond’s on-field needs to a T, and so he’s worth swapping their best non-player asset. Prestia would join Richmond as their number one inside option, pairing with Dustin Martin to create a super-potent one-two punch of grunt.

It would free Trent Cotchin up to become more of a floating inside-outside option, and almost certainly result in Brett Deledio – should he stay – spending most of his time roaming around the half forward flank. Adding Prestia and Yarran (all things going well) and some much needed tactical tweaks could see the Tigers shoot back into finals calculations.

Pick six could yield the next Chad Wingard, but said player won’t be making an impact for three or four years at Tigerland. That’s not going to cut the mustard, which is why the deal should be done, and swiftly.

Jaeger O’Meara
While O’Meara has similarly named his preferred destination club – *gulp* Hawthorn – there is much water to travel under the bridge.

Jaeger – one of the few AFL players who exists on a first-name basis – hasn’t played at the top level since Round 23, 2014, after completing his first two seasons without interruption. A patella tendon tear in the 2015 pre-season wrecked his pre-prime years, leaving the Suns with one of the biggest ‘what-ifs’ in recent memory.

The Hawks are taking a risk on his injury history, but also on his form. Fortunately, the latter is unlikely to be a problem: O’Meara is really good at football. He was a nearly unanimous pick for the AFL Rising Star award in 2013, after averaging 21 disposals and close to a goal a game in the Suns’ midfield. An inside-outside midfielder, he is likely able to play both roles at a very high level.

And the latter is unlikely to be a concern either.

Some clubs ruled out Ryan Burton medically last yr. He was Hawks' first pick and playing in Sep. Now happy with Jaeger. Fitness folk tick ✔️

— Sam Landsberger (@SamLandsberger) September 13, 2016

You thought that Hawthorn was falling back into the pack? You may want to think again, particularly given the Hawks are also heavily into Sydney midfielder Tom Mitchell. That’s two players set to enter prime age, just as Hawthorn’s ageing midfield begins to slowly sidle into the sunset. Yikes. That’s another story for another day (or, y’know another story for today).

What is unclear is how the Hawks can get the deal done.

As it stands, Hawthorn have their first round pick, but it will most certainly be in the double digits, and potentially closer to 20 than ten should there be a few highly rated academy players bid on at the top of the draft.

In case you missed it, Gold Coast are expecting quality players for O’Meara, and are prepared to play hard ball to ensure they extract maximum value from his departure. Eade initially suggested the Suns would accept two top-ten picks, but this has moved to players in recent weeks.

The club’s statement confirming their youngster was leaving was one of the more tersely worded comments from an AFL entity in recent times. The Suns also subsequently reminded the league they invested some $300,000 in rehabilitation for O’Meara over and above his salary – not small beer for a player for whom they will now see zero on-field return.

A double first-round pick move doesn’t happen very often, and almost certainly not straight up. As best as I can tell, there have only been seven trades since the 2000 off season which involved two first round picks.

Year	Trader	Partner	Gave	Received
2000	North Melbourne	Fremantle	Peter Bell	6 + 8 + 37 + Jess Sinclair
2015	Melbourne	Gold Coast	6 + 29 + 2016R1 (M)	3 + 10 + 43
2012	GWS	Melbourne	20 + Mini Draft Pick 2 + Dom Barry	3 + 13
2004	Richmond	Geelong	Brad Ottens	12 + 16
2009	Port Adelaide	Four team trade	24 + 40 + 56 + Shaun Burgoyne	9 + 16 + 97 + Jay Nash
2001	St Kilda	Sydney	53 + Barry Hall	13 + 17 + 45
2002	North Melbourne	Adelaide	Wayne Carey	2 + 18

It is also highly unlikely the Hawks will be able to muster a trade that includes two first round picks without bringing in another team, who would be complicit in allowing the Hawks to regenerate their list. The Hawks do have quality on the list, though.

Given they and O’Meara now have the leverage, due to the archaic trade veto power granted to players in the AFL’s CBA, it is likely there will be a hybrid player-pick deal done between the Suns and Hawks. That could still represent value for the Suns, but it is unlikely to be what they came into September.

Our own Cam Rose has an idea, which resembles what the Suns will be forced to settle for – albeit Hawthorn will also likely give up their first round pick rather than their second rounder.

O'Meara for Hartung, Duryea and a second round pick.

— Cam Rose (@camtherose) September 13, 2016

That’s all detail. Gold Coast will be flush with picks, setting the stage for a critical six weeks in the club’s history. If they are able to nail this draft, they should be set up to have a second coming that most start up sporting clubs don’t receive.

The Sun will rise?

Last year’s dealings saw the Suns enter the 2015 draft with an extra first round pick (six and 16, after a few pick swaps saw the Suns enter the draft a little later than initially planned), and resulted in a haul of 2016 picks that would see the Sith Lord Adrian Dodoro himself green with envy.

As it stands, Gold Coast hold picks four, eight, 21, 22, 24 and 27 in this year’s draft; four and 22 are theirs, while eight, 21, 24 and 27 came from Melbourne, Fremantle, Richmond and Port Adelaide respectively.

Six picks inside the top 30 is a bevy of picks in anyone’s language. If we add in a high pick from both Richmond and Hawthorn for Prestia and O’Meara, then the Suns could enter this draft with a concession-like haul of capital, in addition to a player or two from the Hawks.

That’s important, because it means the Suns will be in a position to win the services of their first academy prospects, Jack Bowes and Brad Scheer. Bowes is expected to be bid upon by a club in the top three, and the Suns will have the requisite capital to match that bid and retain a couple of picks well inside the first round.

Gold Coast have a much better list than meets the eye, mostly on the back of an excellent, well-established stock of key position players.

Vice-captain Tom Lynch is already one of the top three key forwards in the game, while his running mate Peter Wright has made a strong start to his career. Down back Steven May, Rory Thompson and Sam Day are as good a set of key defenders as exist in the league. The recently re-signed Tom Nicholls is an atypical ruckman compared to the big bodied types running point at stoppages nowadays, but he goes well enough.

The Suns are playing catch up in their mature age stocks, after whiffing on all but three of their initial poachees. Their dealings with Hawthorn could help in this respect, as Gold Coast could add another player or two with 50-100 games of AFL experience. Gary Ablett is still around, and if he remains committed to the Coast and its success, he will add plenty to the group as a player in the years ahead – albeit the time frame he probably envisaged when heading north has been doubled.

There are holes, which would have ideally been filled by their returning stars, but will instead be plugged by less optimal and developing pieces. That’s fine for the short-term, given the fountain of youth the Suns are set to unveil this spring.

Greater Western Sydney are on the verge of making it into their maiden grand final after five years in the competition. Six years in, and the Suns are embarking upon their first rebuild. They do so from a position of relative strength, particularly given the circumstances of some other clubs around the bottom rungs on the ladder.

You don’t get many second chances in professional sports. Gold Coast, and by extension the AFL, have been given one. They must make it work.