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There’s no doubt the 2016 National Rugby Championship shapes as the best yet. This weekend marks an important point in the season with only three rounds to follow.
While teams in the top four will be looking to consolidate their places, those currently outside the top four really can’t afford another loss, and that’s going to be difficult for Melbourne and Brisbane City when they face off this weekend. The loser would be up against it from here on, you would imagine, to qualify for the semi-finals.
For Western Sydney and Queensland Country – both winless after three rounds – another loss this weekend would essentially see their season over. Even if they won every game remaining, I can’t see how three wins will be enough to qualify.
At the other end of the scale, the unbeaten Sydney Rays and NSW Country face off in the first game of the weekend and it promises to be a belter. I don’t think anyone was expecting two unbeaten NSW teams going into Round 4, but the competition is all the better for it.
SATURDAY: Sydney Rays v NSW Country Eagles; Pittwater Rugby Park, Sydney, 1:00pm AEST
There’s no other way to put it, it’s a bracket-fest for the Rays, who will welcome back Jack Dempsey from suspension, but haven’t quite nailed down several positions.
Winger Richard Woolf is definitely out, with an elbow injury he picked up last weekend likely to end his NRC campaign, while his counterpart from the other flank, Harry Jones is out with a niggly quad. Con Foley must get through the Return to Play protocols, too.
The clash between 2017 Waratahs teammates Damien Fitzpatrick and Tolu Latu will be a cracker, but the Eagles will be without Andrew Kellaway from another week. Prop Sam Needs comes into tighthead for Tom Robertson in the only Country change, with Robertson in line to be Wallabies debutant number eight in 2016.
SYDNEY (1-15): Rory O’Connor/Ezra Luxton, Damien Fitzpatrick, Lawrance Hunting, Connor Vest, Nick Palmer, Jack Dempsey, Will Miller, Michael Wells, Matt Lucas ©, Angus Sinclair, Johnathan Malo/Josh Turner, Irae Simone, Con Foley, Josh Turner/Seb Wileman, Cameron Clark.
Bench: James Hilterbrand, Rory O’Connor/Ezra Luxton, Mitch Lewis, Adrian Hall/Michael Smith, James Brown, Dewet Roos, Sam Lane, Seb Wileman/Josh Turner/Dennis Pili-Gaitau.
NSW COUNTRY: Paddy Ryan ©, Tolu Latu, Sam Needs, Ned Hanigan, Tim Buchanan, Sam Figg, Rowan Perry, Sam Ward, Jake Gordon, Andrew Deegan, Alex Newsome, Kyle Godwin/Tom Hill, David Horwitz, Reece Robinson, Angus Roberts.
Bench: Jed Gillespie, Folau Fa’ainga, Cameron Betham, Ryan McCauley, Mark Baldwin, Sam Croke, Tayler Adams, Tom Hill/Kyle Godwin, Tom Cusack (one to be omitted)
Melbourne Rising v Brisbane City; Harlequin Oval, Melbourne, 3pm AEST
No returning Wallabies for the Rising, but skipper Nic Stirzaker and winger Ah-Mu Tuimalealiifano are both back after being late withdrawals last week. Jordy Reid switches to the blindside, with Melbourne Unicorns opensider Ikapote Tupai earning a first Rising start. Former Rebel Lloyd Johansson makes his first Rising start for 2016, too, in the centres alongside Tom English.
City coach Rod Seib has made a handful of changes to the side that suffered a late-game fade out against Canberra last Sunday. With Leroy Houston on his way back to ‘the Rec’ on a medical cover lean deal with former Premiership club Bath, Criff Tupou – brother of a certain cult hero prop – gets his first NRC start at blindside, with Isi Naisarani shifting to no.8. Toby White, the man who scored the first ever try on the NRC, is back at outside centre, pushing Chris Kuridrani out to the right wing.
MELBOURNE: Cruze Ah Nau, Pat Leafa, Tim Metcher, Sam Jeffries, Alex Toolis, Jordy Reid, Ikapote Tupai, Harley Fox, Nic Stirzaker, Ben Meehan, Ah-Mu Tuimalealiifano, Lloyd Johansson, Tom English, Jonah Placid, Jack Debreczeni.
Bench: Siliva, Tom Moloney, Tyrel Lomax, Steve Cummins, Rob Leota, Mick Snowden, Sione Tuipulotu, Isaiah Leota.
BRISBANE CITY: Pettowa Paraka, Andrew Ready, Sam Talakai (c), Luke Beauchamp, Lukhan Tui, Criff Tupou, Michael Gunn, Isi Naisarani, Nick Frisby, Jake McIntyre, Alex Gibbon, Patrick James, Toby White, Chris Kuridrani, Brad Lacey.
Bench: Matt Mafi, Markus Vanzati, Feao Fotuaika, Jeremiah Lynch, Tuaina Tualima, Moses Sorovi, Mitch Felsman, Brendan Mitchell.
SUNDAY: Uni of Canberra Vikings v Western Sydney Rams; Viking Park, Canberra, 1pm AEST
Bunkering down for their maiden Horan-Little Shield defence, the Vikings have recalled the cavalry, with Jarrad Butler, Joe Powell, and Nick Jooste all coming back into the starting side. Robbie Coleman – who admitted to me this week that he thinks he’s wasted the last three years of his career – stays at 10, and Jooste will start at fullback. 2016 John I Dent Cup leading try-scorer Jamie Kotz comes onto the bench for Henry Speight.
There’s still no Hugh Roach for the Rams, and I suspect his continued absence is more precautionary than anything else now. And furthermore, if the Rams happen to drop another this weekend, I doubt we’ll see Roach at all in 2016. But Roach’s absence allows a surprise NRC debut for Wallaby and Western Force veteran Nathan Charles returning from injury.
Though he’s been listed as a Perth Spirit player for the past couple of seasons, he’s never actually played an NRC game. Fijian 7s star Vatemo Ravouvou will be better for last week’s run.
CANBERRA: Sione Taula, Robbie Abel, Leslie Leulua’iali’i-Makin, Blake Enever, Sam Carter, Tom Staniforth, Dean Oakman-Hunt, Jarrad Butler (c), Joe Powell, Robbie Coleman, Lausii Taliauli, Jordan Jackson-Hope, Andrew Smith, Andrew Robinson, Nick Jooste.
Bench: Connal McInerney, Faalelei Sione, Ray Dobson, OJ Noa, Darcy Swain, Brent Hamlin, Jake Rakic, Jamie Kotz.
WESTERN SYDNEY: Matt Gibbon, Brandon Paenga-Amosa, David Lolohea, Filimone Tufui, Vaitoa Senio Toleafoa, Rhys Allen, Tupou Sopoaga, Tyrone Viiga, Scott Gale, Paul Asquith (c), Luke Smart, Mau David Minute, Apolosi Latunipulu, Albert Nikoro, Vatemo Ravouvou.
Bench: Nathan Charles, Harrison Lloyd, Jack Payne, Thomas Alexander, Jodan Tuapou, Waldo Wessels, Mitchell Walton, Rob Buaserau.
Perth Spirit v Queensland Country; UWA Sports Park, Perth, 3pm AEST
Perth are in the top four. That might surprise some people, because it doesn’t really feel like they’ve done anything yet in 2016. But they get a chance to consolidate this weekend, and will welcome back Wallabies no.8 Ben McCalman, and well as Western Force regulars Ross Haylett-Petty, Ian Prior, and Marcel Brache for their second home game of the season.
Queensland Country will have a new captain this week, with opensider Conor Mitchell taking the armband while scrumhalf and regular skipper James Tuttle drops back to the bench. Port Douglas product Issak Fines-Leleiwasa gets a first start in the no.9. Phil Potgeiter comes into the second row for Rob Simmons, one of seven changes made by Toutai Kefu. Still no Brad Thorn though, and again, if Country drop a fourth straight game, you have to wonder if there would be any point in Thorn returning.
PERTH: Laione Mulikihaamea, Harry Scoble, Shambeckler Vui, Kieran Stringer, Onehunga Havili, Ross Haylett-Petty, Kane Koteka, Ben McCalman, Ryan Louwrens, Jono Lance (c), Eric Vasukicakau, Bill Meakes, Ammon Matuauto, Marcel Brache, Luke Morahan.
Bench: Tom Sheminant, Mees Erasmus, Jermaine Ainsley, Russell Burges, Hadleigh May, Ian Prior, Ben Tapuai, AJ Alatimu.
QUEENSLAND COUNTRY: Sef Fa’agase Alex Casey, Kirwan Sanday, Izack Rodda, Phil Potgieter, Ted Postal, Conor Mitchell (c), Angus Scott-Young, Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, Mitch Third, Liam McNamara, Duncan Paia’aua, Izaia Perese, Tyrone Lefau, Tom Banks.
Bench: Feleti Kaitu’u, Ben Daley, Taniela Tupou, Maclean Jones, Jack Cornelsen, James Tuttle, Mack Mason, Tom Pincus.
Fox Sports will broadcast both 3pm games each Saturday and Sunday (Ch.502), and the 1pm live streamed games can be viewed via www.FoxSports.com.au, via the Fox Sports mobile app, or via Apple TV or Telstra TV through the FOX SPORTS NOW app.
To access the streams, you’ll need a Fox Sports online account, which is not the same as your Foxtel pay-tv account.
If you have a Fox Sports (TV) subscription, or a digital subscription to any of the News Limited mastheads, you could be eligible for a free FOX SPORTS Digital Subscription that gives you full access to the NRC live streams. Head to www.Fox Sports.com.au/fox-sports-subscription to find out more, create your online account, and then you’re away.
If you created an account last season to access the streams, then you’re already good to go.
Last week: Paddy 3; Brett, and The Crowd 2; daylight, and then Geoff a long way further behind with donuts…
Geoff
“The only saving grace with low fan interest in the NRC is that my 0/4 last week might sneak under the radar. To be fair, three of the games were close and the one that wasn’t, everybody got wrong. So there!
“I’ve decided to adopt Michael Cheika’s tactics, post the Sydney thrashing; i.e. draw a line in the sand, go the niggle just to get a bit of respect back on the scoreboard, doesn’t matter if it’s not pretty, and think about moving forward again only after that’s done.
“With that in mind, it’s all home teams this week, Sydney Rays, Melbourne Rising, UC Vikings and Perth Spirit.”
Paddy
“I’m going to not use the Geoff Parkes approach with anything from now on. Considering his ‘success’ last week – something never achieved on Roar tipping before – I think it’s best to avoid everything Parkes-related.
“All that said, I think he’s pretty spot on this week. Sydney Rays are going to be a close thing, but should still win.
“I’m going Brisbane City over a strong Melbourne Rising side, while the Vikings and Spirit get my nods this week. Gee this competition is close though…”
Brett
Wow, none right in a full round… I don’t even think I’ve managed that, and I know a thing or two about crap tipping. And judging by last week’s results, I’m now feeling nervous about how relatively easy this week’s tips came about.
I like that my esteemed colleagues have stuck with the Rays, because that makes me more comfortable about sticking with NSW Country. I just don’t think we’ve really seen the Rays properly tested against better opposition in their three wins, whereas the Eagles have beaten both last season’s Finalists. Both sides are averaging five tries a game though, so it’s going to be entertaining either way.
In the other games, Melbourne just look that little bit sharper to me, Canberra shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping the Shield for another week, and while I was always favouring Perth at home, the inclusion of McCalman and co only strengthens that favouritism.
The summary
The Crowd tips..
…the same as Brett again. Through the Sydney Rays-NSW Country pick has swayed back and forward the whole time, and with the final margin just a handful of responses. Final results were:
52.5% NSW Country Eagles
61.6% Melbourne Rising
71.7% Canberra Vikings
68.0% Perth Spirit