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Just three matches remain before the premiers for season 2016 are decided, with the two preliminary finals this weekend to determine who will fight it out for the ultimate prize on the first Saturday of October.
For the first time since 2007, four teams that didn’t make the last four the previous year will be represented, with the Geelong Cats, Sydney Swans, GWS Giants and Western Bulldogs forming this year’s preliminary final line-up.
It’ll be up to the Cats and Bulldogs to prevent an all-Sydney grand final, which not only shapes as a dream match-up for the AFL, but also, the nightmare that Eddie McGuire has dreaded since the Giants entered the AFL in 2012.
The Cats and Giants will start favourites in this weekend’s preliminary final matches, and if they both win through as expected, then it could see Steve Johnson face off against his old club in the biggest match of the season.
All is set for what should be two blockbuster matches to decide our grand finalists for 2016. Here are the two preliminary final matches previewed in full detail:
Geelong Cats [2] versus Sydney Swans [1]
Friday, September 23
7:50pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Last finals meeting: Sydney Swans 7.14 (56) defeated Geelong Cats 7.11 (53) at the Sydney Cricket Ground, second semi-final, 2005.
This season: Sydney Swans 15.8 (98) defeated Geelong Cats 9.6 (60) at Simonds Stadium, Round 16.
A flaw in the current AFL finals system is that it is possible for teams one and two to meet before the grand final, and that’s exactly what will happen for the first time since 2013 when the best two sides of 2016 face off at the MCG this Friday night.
The Sydney Swans and Geelong Cats proved to be the two most consistent teams over the course of 23 rounds, which makes it a shame that they are facing off on the second-last Friday of September rather than the first day of October this year.
The Cats enter Friday night’s clash fresh off a fortnight’s break earned by beating Hawthorn by two points in their qualifying final, while the Swans rebounded by beating the Adelaide Crows last week after losing to GWS in their qualifying final.
The manner in which the Swans dominated the Crows from start to finish is set to worry Chris Scott’s men, who have lost three of their last four matches against the red and white by an average of 64 points.
This includes their solitary meeting this year in which the Swans led from start to finish to win by 38 points in what was co-captain Kieren Jack’s 200th game. It came despite the best efforts of Brownlow Medal favourite Patrick Dangerfield, who gathered 18 of his 33 disposals for the Cats in the first quarter.
While the Cats go in on the back of a longer break, the Swans will do so on the back of a six-day break and with doubts hovering over the availability of Kurt Tippett, Jarrad McVeigh and Gary Rohan.
Tippett is set to return after breaking his jaw in the qualifying final loss to the Giants while McVeigh and Rohan will be given until the last minute to prove their fitness. Rising Star winner Callum Mills (hamstring) is no certainty to return.
For the Cats, Lachie Henderson is in line to return after undergoing knee surgery, but who he replaces will be a huge question throughout the week.
This Friday’s clash will be the first between the Cats and Swans in a final since the famous 2005 semi-final in which Nick Davis kicked four final quarter goals, including the match winner with seconds left, to give the Swans a three-point win.
The heartbreaking loss endured by the Cats would spur them on to one of the club’s most consistent periods between 2007 and 2014, in which they won three flags, finished runner-up in 2008 and only once finished outside the top four.
And after missing out on the finals for the first time since 2006 last year, Chris Scott’s men have rocketed back up the ladder and are well poised to win their first premiership since 2011.
They do have somewhat of a hoodoo to overcome, though – they have never beaten the Swans in a final and this will be their first meeting at the MCG since 1934.
Expect the longer break to do wonders for the Cats here.
For the winner: a berth in the grand final.
For the loser: season over.
Prediction: Geelong Cats by 20 points.
GWS Giants [4] versus Western Bulldogs [7]
Saturday, September 24
5:15pm
Spotless Stadium
Last finals meeting: N/A
This season: GWS Giants 15.8 (98) defeated Western Bulldogs 10.13 (73) at Spotless Stadium, Round 9.
Regardless of the outcome of the first preliminary final, there is set to be a fairytale grand finalist this year, whether it’d be the GWS Giants or the Western Bulldogs, two of the most exciting teams fans have watched over the course of the season.
The AFL probably knew that this day would come ever since the Giants entered the AFL in 2012, and after years of struggle, the fifth-year club is now just four quarters away from the biggest match in their short history.
The Giants will enter this match on the back of a fortnight’s break, which they earned by beating the cross-town rivals the Sydney Swans by 36 points in the qualifying final at ANZ Stadium.
Playing in their first finals match, the Giants showed no signs of nerves against a side which was contesting its 18th finals series in the past 21 years.
Though they will be without veteran Steve Johnson (suspended), Leon Cameron’s men will start favourites to beat the Western Bulldogs, who will be on the road for the third time in their last four matches.
The Bulldogs continued their finals charge by defeating Hawthorn by 23 points at the MCG last Friday night, ending their quest for four straight premierships and keeping that record safely in the hands of Collingwood (1927-30).
The win was inspired by the heroics of third-year player Marcus Bontempelli, who despite turning 21 in November has already demonstrated good leadership skills. He became the youngest player in VFL/AFL history to captain a winning side when the Bulldogs defeated West Coast by eight points in round eleven.
Acting captain Easton Wood has also led from the front since Robert Murphy’s season-ending knee injury in Round 3, which threatened to derail the club’s 2016 just a year after the club had made the finals.
History will be against the Western Bulldogs here, with the club having not reached the grand final since 1961 nor won a premiership since 1954. Additionally, the club suffered a hat-trick of preliminary final defeats between 2008 and 2010.
However, according to some, reaching the final four is just reward for the tough years the club had endured between then and when Luke Beveridge was appointed coach prior to the start of the 2015 season.
He took over at a time in which they were near or at rock bottom, the club having missed the finals for a fourth consecutive season and having had its CEO and captain walk out in the months following the 2014 season.
Now, the 46-year-old has not only led his club to two consecutive September campaigns, but also to the penultimate weekend of the season for the first time in six years.
But while the Bulldogs will be out to continue their fairytale charge to an unlikely grand final, it’s the Giants who will start the favourites as they bid to become the quickest expansion club in history to win the flag.
For the winner: a well-deserved berth in the grand final.
For the loser: season over.
Prediction: GWS Giants by 25 points.
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