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What was predicted by many as a potential grand final match-up has become a preliminary final instead with only one team able to make it through to the big dance. Geelong Cats, Sydney Swans – who will it be?
Amazingly a fixture between these two titans has been almost ignored this week, as excitement builds for Saturday’s historical encounter between the GWS Giants and the Western Bulldogs.
But this is a game not just between two of the best teams of the season – first and second on the ladder after the home-and-away season – but two of the best teams of football’s modern era.
What’s remarkable is the despite these sides both playing in finals almost every year across the last decade, they’ve not met in a final since the 2005 semi, which you may remember for Nick Davis related reasons.
We’ve seen plenty of Geelong vs Hawthorn, and plenty of Sydney vs Hawthorn, but this connection within the AFL’s modern era premiership love triangle has very rarely been made.
Which side will get the chance to win through and claim a possibly era-defining flag – and which one will fall by the wayside, forced to gather up shattered pride and rebuild for 2017?
Last five matches
Round 16, 2016 – Geelong Cats 9.6.60 defeated by Sydney Swans 15.8.98 – Simonds Stadium
Round 19, 2015 – Geelong Cats 14.11.95 defeated Sydney Swans 9.9.63 – Simonds Stadium
Round 7, 2015 – Sydney Swans 18.12.120 defeated Geelong Cats 11.11.77 – ANZ Stadium
Round 11, 2014 – Sydney Swans 22.16.148 defeated Geelong Cats 5.8.38 – SCG
Round 22, 2013 – Geelong Cats 13.14.92 defeated Sydney Swans 7.6.48 – Simonds Stadium
Team news
Teams will be announced on Thursday night – we’ll have the full teams when they come out.
Key players
It’s two potential returnees from injury that will prove to be some of the most interesting players on – or perhaps still off – the field in this one – Lachie Henderson for Geelong, and Kurt Tippet for Sydney.
Henderson has been an excellent recruit for the Cats this year and is one of the key reasons why defensively they’ve improved to be one of the best teams in the comp.
A key defender trio of Harry Taylor, Tom Lonergan and Henderson runs deeper than any other backline in the league in my view, and Henderson and Taylor’s versatility to move forward is handy too.
It might take a tag-team effort to quell Lance Franklin’s influence and if the addition of a fit Henderson can contribute to that, the Cats’ chances will get a big boost.
Sydney ran last week’s game with a ruck combo of Sam Naismith and Toby Nankervis and while there’s some solid young talent there, they’d be itching for Kurt Tipppett to return if possible.
The Cats don’t necessarily have a dominant ruck division, with Zac Smith, Rhys Stanley and Mark Blicavs all getting involved, though all three are capable of producing a blinder.
Tippett would be the best ruckman on the ground by some stretch if he’s able to play, and can have an impact in the forward line too. He’d be a very advantageous inclusion for the Swans.
Dangerfield vs everyone
While there’s always a number of factors behind a change in fortunes for a footy club, I don’t think anyone would disagree too much that Geelong’s recruitment of Patrick Dangerfield has been the chief reason for their improvement in 2016.
Joel Selwood has been a constant and his form has lifted since an so-so 2015 outing – though arguably not to the level it’s been in the past – and the Cats’ other stars have pitched in.
But really, if this match comes down to a battle of the superstars, the Cats are looking at a four-on-one between the Brownlow medallist in waiting and Sydney’s star quartet of Josh P Kennedy, Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker and Lance Franklin.
Dangerfield is capable of putting in that kind of incredible performance that wins the match for his team. So are those four from the Swans.
If that’s the way this match is decided, the percentages are in Sydney’s favour.
Is the double-bye a disadvantage?
We’re about to see something fairly unique and that’s the first occurrence of the finals double-bye as Geelong look to win through despite playing just one match in the last three weeks.
While having the week off leading into the preliminary finals is usually a big advantage, there’s concerns from some that in combination with a week off before finals, it might adversely affect a team’s momentum.
The Cats have definitely had a bit of trouble at times this year with slow starts and keeping their best form flowing, so it’s arguably a bigger concern for them than it would be for most teams.
Will the Cats start the match in peak form, or will it take them a while to warm up? We don’t know, but the answer could prove crucial.
Lights out for Jimmy?
2007 Brownlow winner Jimmy Bartel is still unsigned beyond the 2016 season at Geelong and there have even been rumbling among the media this week that the Cats should consider dropping him on the eve of this big final.
That is, simply put, nuts. Bartel’s calming influence on the group, combined with his experience and class, is invaluable in a big game like this – and that’s not even mentioning the unnecessary distraction that dropping him would be.
That said, it’s looking increasingly likely that he won’t be at the Cats in 2017, and that may be the case for Corey Enright too. Are we about to witness two of Geelong’s greatest ever to wear the guernsey bow out for good?
So who’s going to win?
If this were a match during the season where both sides were coming in off relatively equal preparation, the Swans would be my clear tip. They’ve got more superstar power and match-up well against the Cats.
However, my bet is that despite having two byes in three weeks, the Cats will turn it on from the first bounce and their fresh legs will swing the odds towards them.
The Swans beat the Cats on the road earlier this season, but generally matches between these two teams swing fairly heavily towards the side with the home advantage.
And while these two teams haven’t been fixtured to play each other at the MCG in 72 years if you can believe it, that’s still advantage Cats in my book.
Could go either way this one, without a doubt, and should be a thrilling, dramatic game of footy with some of the biggest personalities in the league taking to the field.
My best guess is, the odds are in Geelong’s favour.
Geelong Cats to win by 12 points.
When: 7:50pm (AEST)
Where: MCG
TV: Channel Seven and Fox Footy, live
Betting: Geelong Cats $1.65, Sydney Swans $2.30
Head-to-head: Geelong Cats 120, Sydney Swans 98
Last five: Geelong Cats 2, Sydney Swans 3
In finals: Geelong Cats 0, Sydney Swans 3