The preliminary finals are here – just three games left in what has been an incredible season of AFL footy. The big question on everyone’s lips is, ‘who is going to win their way through to the grand final?’
Statistically speaking, the most common result in the preliminary finals is for the teams who won through from the qualifying finals to progress – that would mean a GWS vs Geelong premiership decider.
Every now and then, though, things go awry. It happened just last year when Hawthorn made it through to the grand final and won their third consecutive flag, despite having to take the long route via the semi-finals.
That arguably happened because the Fremantle Dockers, despite finishing on top of the ladder, just weren’t that strong a team, especially in the heat of finals. And Geelong and GWS both feel a little vulnerable this year.
The Giants are playing only their second final ever and while they started their finals history incredibly well two weeks ago against the Swans, you could still reasonably ask whether they’ll be able to maintain the rage.
The Cats have been a good team this year but they’ve had some poor patches and despite them getting the win against Hawthorn in the qualifiers, I didn’t find their performance all that convincing.
I’ll be putting up my in-depth previews of the two matches to come over today and tomorrow, so check there for some more detailed thoughts on both matches.
Spoiler alert though; I’m tipping the Cats will get over the line on Friday night and the Bulldogs to pull off the upset on Saturday.
Michael DiFabrizio
Friday night should be very, very interesting. I would have had the Swans ahead of the Cats going into the finals series, but the loss to the Giants shook out some confidence.
With that defeat in mind, and with some injury doubts coming from last week’s win over Adelaide, you start to favour the side that was sitting at home on the couch.
There’s another way to look at week one form, though. Given Geelong were a missed shot after the siren away from losing to Hawthorn – a team that subsequently wasn’t good enough to advance to a preliminary final – do they start to look shaky, too?
But the Cats have earned home-state advantage, and they have the top-end midfield talent to match the strong output of the Swans’ main ball winners. I say it’s another close Geelong win.
In the other match, as good as the Western Bulldogs’ story is and as great as it has been for support to rally behind them, the Giants should get the job done.
After GWS obliterated the concern over them being ready for finals in week one, it has become difficult to see them not making the grand final.
BJ Conkey
Whoever wins Friday night’s game will be the team to beat in the grand final for mine, simply because they’ll have that all-important MCG experience a week out from the big dance.
I know the Swans have injury concerns but the momentum from a huge win will have the Sydney side in a good frame of mind. Eleven Swans had 20 or more disposals last week, including dominant performances from Josh Kennedy, Tom Mitchell and Isaac Heeney.
Geelong have fresh legs on their side, but will fresh legs be better than battle-hardened ones? The first quarter will be key in determining that.
As Swans coach John Longmire said this week, Sydney can’t just focus on Patrick Dangerfield as Tom Hawkins and Joel Selwood can also produce blinders. Sydney to win the midfield – and the match by three goals.
I keep tipping against the Bulldogs and they keep surprising me, so Dogs fans will probably be happy that I’m tipping against them once again.
We know that the Giants are a team that are hard to stop when they’re on a roll, especially at home. The Giants won the last time the two played at Spotless in Round 9 but the Bulldogs were missing several players.
Steve Johnson played well that day so GWS will be hampered without the suspended marquee player. However, they’ve got more than enough firepower without him. Jeremy Cameron is hard to stop on any day and the preliminary final is his chance to help create history for the club.
The Western Bulldogs didn’t panic against Hawthorn after being behind early, but they can’t afford to have a slow start against the Giants.
Despite how well the likes of Jake Stringer, Marcus Bontempelli and Jordan Roughead played last week, the emotion of finally breaking the Hawks’ dynasty was like a grand final win in itself for the Dogs and it might be too much to ask them to lift again.
GWS to get the job done.
| Semi-finals | BJ Conkey | Michael | Josh | The Crowd |
| GEE v SYD | SYD | SYD | GEE | SYD |
| GWS v WB | GWS | GWS | WB | GWS |
| Last round | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 144 | 141 | 139 | 144 |
Charlie Cameron's one-match ban for a dangerous tackle on Melbourne's Jake Lever has been overturned by the AFL Tribunal, successfully clearing the star Brisbane…
Brisbane star Josh Dunkley says players are exaggerating head contact in tackles to win free kicks, with the results often seeing the tacklers suspended.
Sean Lemmens was given a four-match ban for this crunching tackle - is it a fair whack?
Collingwood premiership defender Nathan Murphy has been forced into a premature and immediate AFL retirement through concussion to prioritise a "full and healthy life"…
Footy Classified's Matthew Lloyd believes that in hindsight North Melbourne should've lost their final game last season if it meant getting Harley Reid, given…
Free speech is one of the big misunderstandings of today’s society - and unfortunately, sport, while largely based on games and fun, is not…
