The GWS Giants and the Western Bulldogs will go head to head in arguably the most anticipated AFL match for many years. Which side is going to make history?
Both of these sides are on fairytale runs through the finals after finishing fourth and seventh respectively – but for one of them, the story is about to come to an end.
The fixture does guarantee though that at least one will play in the grand final and that’s a huge result either way. It’ll be either GWS’ first ever appearance, or the first for the Bulldogs in 55 years.
These are the two most exciting young teams in the competition and they’ve both progressed through this finals series despite being underdogs in every match they’ve played so far.
The Giants if they’re to win the premiership will be the lowest placed team after the home-and-away season to pull it off since Adelaide won from fifth in 1998.
The Bulldogs, if they are to win from seventh, will set a new record on that score – the previous best being the Melbourne Demons’ win from sixth place in the year 1900.
Fans of the game have fallen in love with both these teams at different times this season as both play exciting, speedy football, and whichever wins through will surely be the popular pick to win the decider next week.
So who will it be?
Last five matches
Round 9, 2016 – GWS Giants 15.8.98 defeated Western Bulldogs 10.13.73 – Spotless Stadium
Round 9, 2015 – Western Bulldogs 16.17.113 defeated GWS Giants 11.2.68 – Etihad Stadium
Round 23, 2014 – Western Bulldogs 15.19.109 defeated by GWS Giants 18.7.115 – Etihad Stadium
Round 4, 2014 – GWS Giants 12.11.83 defeated by Western Bulldogs 17.8.110 – StarTrack Oval
Round 15, 2013 – GWS Giants 12.11.83 defeated by Western Bulldogs 13.9.87 – StarTrack Oval
GWS Giants
In: Rhys Palmer
Out: Steve Johnson (Suspension)B: Adam Tomlinson, Phil Davis, Nathan Wilson
HB: Heath Shaw, Joel Patfull, Ryan Griffen
C: Jacob Hopper, Stephen Coniglio, Tom Scully
HF: Dylan Shiel, Jeremy Cameron, Jonathon Patton
F: Rhys Palmer, Rory Lobb, Devon Smith
Fol: Shane Mumford, Toby Greene, Callan Ward
Int: Zac Williams, Lachie Whitfield, Josh Kelly, Nick Haynes
Emg: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Adam Kennedy, Sam J ReidWestern Bulldogs
In: Fletcher Roberts
Out: Matthew Suckling (Achilles)B: Jason Johannisen, Joel Hamling, Matthew Boyd
HB: Shane Biggs, Dale Morris, Easton Wood
C: Lachie Hunter, Marcus Bontempelli, Liam Picken
HF: Jack Macrae, Zaine Cordy, Jake Stringer
F: Tory Dickson, Tom Boyd, Caleb Daniel
Fol: Jordan Roughead, Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Liberatore
Int: Clay Smith, Toby McLean, Fletcher Roberts, Josh Dunkley
Emg: Tom Campbell, Lukas Webb, Roarke Smith
Key players
Both of these teams have strong midfields and the match may come down to a question of which one is better able to capitalise on their opportunities when going forward.
Jeremy Cameron lifted for GWS’ first final against Sydney, kicking a bag of goals and guiding the Giants to a win. For a 23-year-old key forward who has kicked 236 goals from 92 games, he goes under the radar surprisingly often.
His opposite number at the Bulldogs is Jake Stringer who has had a bit of an up-and-down season but was excellent against Hawthorn last week, showing his trademark ability to take on the world and pull goals out of his hat.
A big performance from either of these two would be a huge boost towards their team’s chances.
Former friends and former foes
If the budding GWS Giants have a rivalry with anyone outside of their crosstown cousins the Sydney Swans, it’s with the Western Bulldogs.
The Giants have poached Ryan Griffen, who was the Bulldogs’ captain, and Callan Ward, who might well have become their next skipper, while the Bulldogs retaliated to the Griffen move by stealing away Tom Boyd.
These weren’t amicable exchanges and these two teams have plenty of reason to give each other a bit of lip. Whichever way this one pans out, the winners will have a bit to chirp about.
Will the AFL be left Spotless?
The decision to play this game at Spotless Stadium was one that ruffled the feathers of a few fans, and understandably so. While the majority of us would like to see the AFL do whatever it takes to make all things even where possible, it seems like commercial interests consistently come before that.
Should this game be played at Spotless? And if the answer is yes, then surely a Geelong final should be played at Simonds Stadium, et cetera et cetera.
Not helping the AFL is the perception that the Giants are their most loved child, and the feeling from many that they’ve gotten a significant number of advantages – compared to the Bulldogs, who are seen to be built on blood, sweat and tears, as all great football clubs are.
It’s debatable how accurate this perception is, but the problem isn’t so much with the accuracy of the perception but the fact that it exists. Reasonably or not, fans will riot if the Giants get a win, and the AFL will have headaches.
Stevie or Suckling, who’s the bigger out?
Both clubs have lost senior players this week and there’s some significant similarities between them. Both are players who only joined the club this season, and both brought significiant premiership experience to a team lacking it.
Steve Johnson is out with a one-week suspension, and while the Giants don’t exactly lack for forward-line options, they’ll be missing his spark, confidence and big-game experience.
Matt Suckling is hardly the most important member of the Bulldogs’ defence, but he does provide some handy run and a booming-if-unreliable kick – plus the calming influence of having played in two flags.
Which is the bigger blow? Johnson’s goalkicking prowess is probably the greater loss, though the Giants are arguably better placed in terms of a replacement – Rhys Palmer provides a solid level of performance while Fletcher Roberts may leave the Dogs’ defence shorter on run than they’d like to be.
So who’s going to win?
So much seems to go in favour of the Giants. On paper, their talent appears to run much deeper. It’s a home game for them, and they’ve had a week off too. They beat the Bulldogs in this fixture earlier this year.
That said, the Dogs have just been so spectacularly good at defying expectations this finals series. They’ve overcome big odds in both games so far, and it has put me to the point where I ask, what can’t they do?
On a pure-numbers, balance-of-probability sort of prediction, the Giants have to be hot favourites – and if the Bulldogs run out of steam, it could even be a really big win.
However, my gut says the Bulldogs have the best form and the most desire of any team left in the competition. Maybe it’s crazy, but I’m tipping them.
Western Bulldogs to win by 18 points.
Where: Spotless Stadium
When: 5:15pm (AEST)
TV: Channel Seven, live, Fox Footy, live
Betting: GWS Giants $1.36, Western Bulldogs $3.25
Head-to-head: GWS Giants 2, Western Bulldogs 4
In finals: Never met
Jesse Hogan's striking charge was thrown out by the tribunal citing that negligible contact was made with Carlton's Lewis Young. AFL 360's Mark Robinson…
GWS captain Toby Greene has been suspended for the eighth time in his career after failing in his bid to clear himself of a…
Damien Hardwick has predicted Toby Greene's one-match suspension will be upheld by the AFL tribunal, but the triple-premiership coach says he wouldn't ban the…
Jonathan Brown has made a passionate plea to the AFL on On the Couch to give players leeway as they make split-second decisions, following…
Toby Greene has been offered a one-game suspension after making high contact with Carlton's Jordan Boyd, adding to his list of bans in recent…
Adam Kingsley leant on the "Toby tax" sentiment in defending Toby Greene, but the GWS captain has received a one-match suspension for a high…
