The Melbourne Storm will have to weather a very hungry Canberra Raiders outfit on Saturday with a place in the grand final on the line.
The Storm finished atop the pile this year as minor premiers for the second time in the club’s history, if you take into account a few that don’t exist anymore.
While Melbourne did take the top spot, they were overshadowed for most of the year by the Sharks’ thrilling winning streak and an electric Canberra Raiders side that cruised home in the back half of the season to take second.
Melbourne was able to shoot along at their own pace and rack up win after win to place themselves in prime position for a tilt at the premiership.
A last-round win was enough for the Raiders to finish in second behind Saturday’s opponents, but they fell agonisingly close against the Sharks in the first week of the finals, losing by just two points to give the Sharks a ticket through to the prelims.
Canberra was forced to push through and face the Panthers last week, but a much more cohesive effort granted them a much better result, battling past Penrith to reach the penultimate round of the season.
It’s an underrated 1 vs 2 match-up this weekend that many wouldn’t have been able to pick at the start of the year, even halfway through the year, but it’s going to be a blockbuster inside AAMI Park nonetheless.
The experience and domination of a Melbourne Storm side who has been possibly the best side of the last decade, against a young and hungry Raiders that have nothing to lose and everything to prove.
Melbourne have added two players to an extended 19-man squad for Saturday, with the inclusions of Matthew White and Felise Kaufusi.
Christian Welch has also been brought into the side in place of Nelson Asofa-Solomona, while the Storm also waits on lock Dale Finucane who has been named but is in doubt with an ankle injury.
Cooper Cronk will also be celebrating his 300th game in the NRL, all for the Melbourne Storm in a career that started back in 2004.
For the Raiders, coach Ricky Stuart has made zero changes to his side that won last week against the Panthers.
Blake Austin and Josh Hodgson continue to be nursed after making earlier than expected comebacks last week.
Game Info
Kickoff: 7:40pm (AEST)
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
Referees: Matt Cecchin and Alan Shortall
TV: Live on Nine and Fox Sports 1
Betting: Storm $1.43, Raiders $2.95
Overall Record: Played 37, Storm 26, Raiders 11
Record at Venue: Played 5, Storm 2, Raiders 3Storm:
1 Cameron Munster 2 Suliasi Vunivalu 3 William Chambers 4 Cheyse Blair 5 Marika Koroibete 6 Blake Green 7 Cooper Cronk 8 Jesse Bromwich 9 Cameron Smith 10 Jordan McLean 11 Kevin Proctor 12 Tohu Harris 13 Dale Finucane. Interchange: 14 Kenneth Bromwich 15 Tim Glasby 16 Christian Welch 17 Ben Hampton 20 Matthew White 21 Felise KaufusiRaiders:
1 Jack Wighton 2 Edrick Lee 3 Jarrod Croker (c) 4 Joseph Leilua 5 Jordan Rapana 6 Blake Austin 7 Aidan Sezer 8 Junior Paulo 9 Josh Hodgson 10 Shannon Boyd 11 Josh Papalii 12 Elliot Whitehead 13 Iosia Soliola Interchange: 14 Kurt Baptiste 15 Luke Bateman 16 Paul Vaughan 17 Joseph Tapine
Suliasi Vunivalu
The Fijian young gun has arguably been the find of the season across the whole competition, racking up a host of records in his debut season in the NRL.
The 20-year old is the leading try scorer in the league with 23 pies, despite not starting the season and playing just 19 games, setting a new club record at the Storm.
He’s broken the record for most tries in a debut season, beating out Israel Folau back in 2007, again, despite only debuting in Round 7. He racked up five doubles in his first eight games to just explode out of the gates for the start of his career.
If he gets just an inch of space, he’ll be a huge problem for the Raiders and the go-to man for the Storm.
Cronk’s 300th
Cooper Cronk becomes just the second Storm player to reach the milestone this weekend when he shapes up for his triple hundred, making him the 25th player in the game’s history to do so.
Every player comes out in press conferences saying that they’re more concerned about the team’s performance, trying to push attention away from the personal milestone.
That’s not as much a tactic to pump up the boys, but a personal tactic from the player themselves to downplay their mental pressure. Milestones are big events for players and they subliminally put pressure on themselves to perform on the big stage.
Now, Cooper Cronk is one of the best to grace a rugby league field, and after 300 games, he knows a few things about performing under pressure, but that little niggle in the back of his brain will still be there.
The team also wants to put in big for their mate. This isn’t a gigantic league changing situation by any means, but in a preliminary final with so much on the line and such a tight contest on the cards, every little bit helps and hurts equally.
Hookers collide
Cameron Smith is a big game player. The man has led his club, his state and his country to nearly insurmountable success across his storied career. He thrives off the big game atmosphere.
On the other side of the park though you have Josh Hodgson, the breakout star of the year for the Raiders in his second season after making the move from the UK.
These two are arguably the two best hookers in the NRL in 2016. Plain and simple.
The experience, grit, reliability and consistency of Smith meets the young flash, energetic style of Hodgson in what is shaping up to one intense, but supremely entertaining, battle of No. 9s.
The key for the Storm is Smith’s ability to own a game of football, and he can’t allow Hodgson to take that away from him in the middle of the park.
If Smith can reign that iron fist over Hodgson, and subsequently the Raiders, then Melbourne will be very hard to push back off the front foot once they start rolling.
The lethal right edge
All year the Raiders right wing combination of Jordan Rapana and Joseph Leilua have had a field day on opposition defence, racking up try after try and causing damage wherever they go.
Between them, they’ve scored 33 tries in 2016 to become the deadliest combination in the league.
Rapana leads the league in line breaks thanks a lot to the fact that Leilua is second in the competition for offloads, feeding Rapana and becoming one of the best at the line break assist.
Canberra are the highest point scoring team in the competition this year, and these two are one of the main reasons, tearing through most defences like it’s nothing off the back of their inside men.
If the playmakers can feed them good ball and often, then the Storm will be in for a tough night at the office.
The playmakers – Austin, Hodgson and Croker
Speaking of those playmakers, the Raiders have three vital players in their squad that have driven the Canberra side all the way to within one game of the grand final.
Blake Austin, Josh Hodgson and Jarrod Croker have accounted for some of the best performances of 2016.
Croker is having the season of his career and is right up there for Dally M contention, having topped the point scorers list this year, beating out the next best, Johnathan Thurston, by nearly 100 points.
British import Hodgson has been equally as good, taking control around the ruck, guiding his big men around the park and feeding one of the deadliest backlines in the competition.
His darting runs out of dummy half inside the opposition 20 have caught the enemy off guard all year, picking up a few tries of his own with the cheekiest of dummies out of the play the ball.
Despite being under an injury cloud, Austin is as much a key for the Raiders come game time than anyone else on the park.
The 25-year old has always shown a lot of potential as a real player for the future, but it’s in 2016 that he’s really come into his own and taken his play to the next level.
The hardest part for the Storm will be the range of playmakers the Raiders have in these three.
Not many teams have a quality 6 and 7 combinations, but to have a third in Croker and a firing hooker, the Raiders will be hard to stop.
Melbourne in Melbourne
The Melbourne Storm anywhere in the world is one of the toughest contests a side can face, but to make the trip down to Victoria and face the music in Melbourne, on their home turf, that’s a whole different story.
This also brings the mental game into the contest. Canberra need to make sure they aren’t sucked in by the location and occasion because that pressure can knock any side around the park before they’ve even hit the opposition.
In saying that though, the Raiders have quite a good, albeit brief, history in Melbourne, winning three and losing just two to the minor premiers in their own backyard.
The key here is for the Raiders to avoid being overawed or overwhelmed with where they are, in dangerous territory with a dangerous team in front of them. Mentality is half the contest.
It’s a mouthwatering contest this one, and a game that you don’t want to see either team lose with such an entertaining 13 lining up on either side of the halfway line, but alas, there can be only one.
The stranglehold that the Storm has had over the finals and the NRL in general over the past decade is always hard to look past as they find themselves deep in September every year.
But the surprise packet of Canberra has all the tools to pull off a heist and steal the win from Melbourne in their own backyard.
It certainly won’t be a boring game of rugby league to watch, and while the Raiders will continue to play that attacking, free-flowing style of footy that’s served them so well, I think it’ll be the clinical Storm that hold on to take home the bacon.
Melbourne to win by 4
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