The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

NBL 2016-17 season preview: New Zealand Breakers

Alex Pledger of the New Zealand Breakers, marked by Shawn Redhage of the Perth Wildcats. (Source: Chris Pike)
Expert
22nd September, 2016
0

The New Zealand Breakers have been the NBL’s most successful club over the last five years, but the 2016-17 season looks like it could bring a change of fortunes.

The Breakers have incredibly won four premierships from the last six seasons, the Perth Wildcats winning the other two.

Those victories for the Wildcats include last year’s grand final series, which saw the Breakers go down in an anti-climactic third game.

The Breakers though, were lucky to make the finals given how they played during the season – they struggled with consistency and it was only some poor play from Adelaide, and a strong finish to the season from New Zealand that changed the result of the ladder around.

New Zealand clearly have realised the regular season wasn’t up to scratch though, because they have made wholesale changes, including a sweeping overhaul of their imports and coaching staff.

The change in coach wasn’t exactly needed, but Dean Vickerman has is now the assistant coach at the Sydney Kings under Andrew Gaze, which leaves rookie coach Paul Henare in charge.

Under the rookie coach is a playing group with plenty of experience, and last year’s core is still largely together. Unfortunately for the Breakers, their depth looks weak, and while they will be competitive, they seem to lack an edge.

There’s also the question of how new imports fit in, given the amount of extra travel New Zealand have to do compared to other clubs.

Advertisement

Squad
Finn Delany, Shea Ili, Kirk Penney, Derone Raukawa (development), Corey Webster, Thomas Abercrombie, Ben Woodside (import), Ethan Rusbatch (development), Mika Vukona (captain), Robert Loe, Jordan Ngatai, Alex Pledger, Isaih Tueta, Akil Mitchell (import), Sam Waardenburg (development)
Coach: Paul Henare

Ins: Kirk Penney, Derone Raukawa, Ben Woodside, Ethan Rusbatch, Robert Loe, Isaih Tueta, Akil Mitchell, Sam Waardenburg
Outs: Cedric Jackson, Charles Jackson, Reuben Te Rangi, Duane Bailey, Tai Wesley, Everard Bartlett, Shane McDonald
Retained: Finn Delany, Shea Ili, Corey Webster, Thomas Abercrombie, Mika Vukona, Jordan Ngatai, Alex Pledger

Likely depth chart

Starter Interchange 1 Interchange 2
Point guard Corey Webster Shea Ili Derone Raukawa
Shooting guard Kirk Penney Ben Woodside Ethan Rusbatch
Small forward Thomas Abercrombie Finn Delaney Sam Waardenburg
Power forward Mika Vukona Akil Mitchell Jordan Ngatai
Centre Robert Loe Alex Pledger

Losing the Jackson combination, of Charles and Cedric, is a massive blow.

Cedric, a former league MVP, has signed with Melbourne United in one of their import spots. Although the point guard was a reason behind the Breakers’ inconsistencies last season, he delivered when it counted to not only get them into the finals, but the grand final series.

Knocking over United in straight sets, including winning Game 1 in Melbourne, was a massive effort, and with Corey Webster shooting cold, Jackson stood shouldered the burden from the perimeter.

Advertisement

The Breakers also lose Cedric’s passing game. His combination with Charles Jackson (when he managed to stay out of foul trouble and on the floor) was something to behold, while he also worked well with consistent players like Thomas Abercrombie and Mika Vukona.

Charles Jackson, on the other hand, was the height of inconsistentcy – but when he got his game somewhere near right, it was scary.

Whether New Zealand can replace the pair, along with the rotation players they have lost, is up in the air, even more so after the free agency period.

Their biggest signing, and a man who is going to be under all sorts of pressure, is Kirk Penney from the Illawarra Hawks.

Penney’s shooting game from behind the arc was, at times last season, second to none. In saying that, he is now 35 years old and the extra travel time to and from New Zealand isn’t going to do him a great deal of good.

The other problem by signing a shooting two guard is that they already have one and both will demand starting roles. Cedric Jackson offered was mix of scoring and passing, but with Penney joining Corey Webster on the floor to start games, that passing presence is gone and it will be all outside shooting.

That is going to make the Breakers’ offence predictable, and unless they can come up with some ripping plays to get their big men involved, who have plenty of questions around them anyway, it could be a long season on the offensive end of the floor.

Advertisement

While Webster can indeed pass the ball, he is a score-first type of player and was not all that good at it last season after his return from an unsuccessful NBA trial with the New Orleans Pelicans.

The Breakers have done a relatively poor job in signing imports, and it will cost them in the front court.

While Charles Jackson gave away more silly fouls than anyone will care to remember, he provided scoring in the paint. Robert Loe can do the same, but he won’t have anywhere near the presence of Jackson, and with a backcourt that won’t be so reliant on passing the ball inside, Loe creating opportunities could be few and far between.

Their other imports, Akil Mitchell and Ben Woodside, look unlikely to gain a starting role, but will have to carry a weak bench rotation.

While Alex Pledger will add plenty under the basket – and there are questions about where he may actually start matches over Loe, as he did over Jackson at times last year – Shea Ili and Finn Delaney don’t provide a lot of confidence.

Neither have great levels of experience or consistency, and Ili tends to serve up more bad shots than good ones, which could see opportunities wasted for the likes of Webster or Penney.

The stable part of the Breakers’ roster is their forwards, with Vukona and Abercrombie set to go around again. Both have experience, with Vukona being one of the club’s most consistent and hard-working players of all time, while Abercrombie is similar but also has a bit of a flash and zing to his game. On his day, Abercrombie could rival just about any three-point shooter in the league.

Advertisement

But if Abercrombie is to lead New Zealand back to the finals, it isn’t going to come down to how well he shoots the ball, but whether he gets tough on defence and leads the team to a high rebound count.

Essentially, the Breakers must be good under the boards and on the defensive end. Three-point shooting isn’t going to work every match of a 28-game season, and so they need to minimise their points chasing by playing lock-down defence.

This is where Loe could come in handy, but defence is going to start with Vukona and Abercrombie.

Schedule

Round Date Time (AEDT) Opponent Venue
1 Fri Oct 7 5:30 PM Melbourne United Vector Arena
2 Fri Oct 14 9:30 PM Perth Wildcats Perth Arena
3 Thu Oct 20 5:30 PM Sydney Kings North Shore Events Centre
3 Sat Oct 22 7:30 PM Brisbane Bullets Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre
4 Sat Oct 29 5:30 PM Adelaide 36ers Vector Arena
5 Fri Nov 4 5:30 PM Melbourne United Hisense Arena
5 Sun Nov 6 TBC Brisbane Bullets Vector Arena
6 Fri Nov 11 5:30 PM Cairns Taipans Vector Arena
6 Sun Nov 13 7:00 PM Perth Wildcats Perth Arena
7 Fri Nov 18 5:30 PM Illawarra Hawks North Shore Events Centre
7 Sun Nov 20 TBC Illawarra Hawks WIN Entertainment Centre
8 Sun Nov 27 TBC Cairns Taipans Cairns Convention Centre
9 Fri Dec 2 5:30 PM Illawarra Hawks North Shore Events Centre
9 Sun Dec 4 TBC Melbourne United Hisense Arena
10 Thu Dec 8 5:30 PM Brisbane Bullets Vector Arena
10 Sat Dec 10 5:30 PM Adelaide 36ers Titanium Security Arena
11 Thu Dec 15 5:30 PM Perth Wildcats Vector Arena
13 Fri Dec 30 7:30 PM Sydney Kings Qudos Bank Arena
14 Fri Jan 6 7:30 PM Cairns Taipans Cairns Convention Centre
14 Sun Jan 8 TBC Adelaide 36ers North Shore Events Centre
15 Fri Jan 13 5:30 PM Sydney Kings Vector Arena
15 Sun Jan 15 TBC Brisbane Bullets Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre
16 Fri Jan 20 7:30 PM Illawarra Hawks WIN Entertainment Centre
16 Sun Jan 22 TBC Perth Wildcats Vector Arena
17 Thu Jan 26 5:30 PM Cairns Taipans North Shore Events Centre
17 Sun Jan 29 TBC Sydney Kings Qudos Bank Arena
18 Sat Feb 4 5:30 PM Adelaide 36ers Titanium Security Arena
19 Fri Feb 10 5:30 PM Melbourne United North Shore Events Centre

The Breakers have a tough start, spending three of their first four games on the road, and playing Melbourne United, the Perth Wilcats and Sydney Kings in the opening couple of weeks.

While wins away against the Wildcats and Kings would be good, it is the semi-final rematch on the first Friday of the season at Vector Arena in Auckland that is going to be indicative of the coming season. United have revamped and look stronger than ever, so if the Breakers can take the fight to them or pinch a win, it will go a long way towards setting up the season.

Advertisement

Intriguingly, New Zealand finish the season across town at the North Shore Events Centre, against United as well. If the Breakers are to make the finals they need to have a spot booked before the final game of the season.

Prediction
The Breakers will be competitive, but it’s hard to see them doing enough to keep their incredible last five years going.

As I have said, there isn’t much separating fourth down to eighth this season, but New Zealand just have a feel of not being consistent enough, not gelling, and not having much more than shooting to their offence.

That said, they are a team that traditionally fights hard, and with the same core going around again, plus the addition of Penney, anything could happen.

Sixth.

Roarers, what do you make of the Breakers’ chance for the 2016-17 season? Be sure to check back in tomorrow for our final pre-season preview, as we look at defending premiers, the Perth Wildcats.

Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde

Advertisement
close