This match sees the side with clearly the best defence in 2016 up against the side with clearly the best attack. Which will prevail?

Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders
7:40pm, Saturday 24 September, AAMI Park

Craig Bellamy’s boys will be all about getting this game into an even paced and metronomically controlled grind, courtesy of their ever determined pack and hyper-focused half back Cooper Cronk.

This will be Cronk’s 300th first grade game. It will also be the first time in rugby league history that two 300 game players will play on the same team together.

Can Ricky Stuart’s boys wreck the party with their unrelenting attack? Or will they be ground down by the 2016 vintage of Bellamy Ball?

The History

Overall: This is the 38th game between these two sides. It stands at the Storm 26, the Raiders 11.

The last ten: Would you believe it? The last ten games between these sides have been split five each.

At this Venue: There have been five matches between these sides at AAMI Park. The Raiders have won three of them. However, the Storm won the last encounter here in round 19, 2014, so most of those games are really ancient history rather than relevant.

With the exception of the Raiders win in Round 8, 2013 where scores were level at half time, whichever side has led at half time has won.

Finals: There have only been two finals between these sides and the Storm were victorious in both: 24-10 in Melbourne in 1998 and 30-18 in Canberra in 2003.

Cameron Smith scored a try in that game and Bellamy was the coach. It was also the game where the head grapple first came to prominence.

Form: The Storm have won three of their last five, including a last start win over the Cowboys. The Raiders have won four of their last five, and eleven of their last twelve. Their loss here was to Cronulla in the first week of the finals.

Referees: Neither Matt Cecchin or Alan Shortall have officiated a finals match between these two sides. Cecchin has reffed four matches between these sides with the spoils being shared evenly.

Matt Cecchin has reffed the Storm 37 times. They have won 22 of them (60%). He has reffed the Raiders 27 times and they have only won 11 of them (40%).

Alan Shortall has reffed the Storm 20 times. They have won 13 of them (65%). He has reffed the Raiders 22 times and they have only won 9 of them (40%).

Scoring by Quarters
I have painstakingly kept records of each NRL sides scoring in 2016. We can now get a pretty good indication of how this match will play out by comparing the Storm home attack and defence against the Raiders away attack and defence.

To make this even more precise, we will just examine their scores against the other sides that finished the home and away season in the top eight.

Storm Attack/Raiders Defence

The Storm have a very clear window of opportunity to put points on against the Raiders; the second twenty minutes of the game is when the Storms attack is at its best and the Raiders defence at its worst. Apart from that period the Raiders defence is pretty good.

Raiders Attack/Storm defence

Here’s where you see the best attack in the competition against the very best defence.

If the Raiders hope to win they must score in the first 20 minute period. That is when the Storm are most vulnerable. After that their defence is ridiculously miserly and even the Raiders attack may have issues breaching it.

Here’s an interesting stat: the Raiders are actually a five point better side in attack away from home against this year’s top eight sides. While they also concede two more points away versus top eight sides, they are still three points better a game away from Canberra.

Let’s now break these comparisons down further to games against top four opposition.

The Storm are four from six against the other top four sides this year. Their losses were away to the Raiders and away to the Sharks. Note that Johnathan Thurston did not play the Storm in Round 21.

The Raiders are three from five against top four sides this year. However, they have only played the Storm and Cowboys once each and both games were at home. Thurston did not play the Raiders in the Round 18 game.

The Storm have only scored over 16 points once from six starts against top four sides this season: in round 26 at home against the Sharks when they scored 26.

The Raiders have only conceded more than 16 points once against top four sides this season: in round 7 when they went down 40-16 to the Sharks. The Raiders were missing Blake Austin, Sia Soliola and Junior Paulo that day.

Here is what both sides average scoring looks like against the different cohorts:

As you can see the Storm average just 12 points conceded a match and that stays rock steady. What doesn’t stay steady is their scoring. Against top four opposition it plummets to 13.6 a game.

The Raiders pretty much concede 18 points a game but they also boast the best attack in the game. On only five occasions this year have they been held to less than 20 points. They lost every one of those games.

Once the Raiders have scored 21 points or more then they have won every match. The question is can the Storm stop them scoring? If anyone can, it is Melbourne who have the best defence in the NRL this season.

Statistically predicted score: 17-16 Storm

Defence

Team Stats – average per game 2016

That’s what the best defence in the competition looks like people! The lowest missed tackles and errors, that translates into the least line breaks and tries conceded. Bellamy Ball is a very simple concept but quite hard to carry out.

Note that the Storm players will almost never offload until they cross the halfway line. Before that it is mostly one off the ruck runs, with the occasional two pass play. The Purple Horde play a very low risk game coming out of their own half.

The Raiders, as you can see from their lesser defensive stats, chance their arm a fair bit more in their own red zone.

Player Stats

It’s not on this chart but Cam Munster has the lowest errors of any NRL fullback this year. Opposing him is the player in the NRL with the most in 2016: Jack Wighton. And while “Leipana” may be the most potent centre-wing combination in the NRL this year, they are also the most error prone.

You can bet that Cronk will be testing out all three of Canberra’s error masters to try and get their confidence down.

The problem with that strategy is that you will be voluntarily involving the Raiders three most deadly players and if they don’t get the dropsies they might tear Vunivalu and Chambers to pieces. However, if it goes right this match could quickly turn into a Purple procession…

Expect some high balls to go Marika Koroibete and Suliasi Vunivalu’s way too.

The Storms biggest weakness is the one-on-one defence of their centres. Chambers averages nearly three misses a match, Blair two. The Raiders will look to move the ball quickly to the flanks to get the likes of Croker, Leilua or Papalii one on one with the Storm centres. The Storm will again target Aidan Sezer’s backpedaling defence.

Attack

Team Stats – average per game 2016

The Raiders have scored 21 more tries this year than the Storm. This is of course offset by the fact that the Storm have conceded 28 fewer tries than the Raiders. However, as good as your defence is, you must score points to win.

As seen above, the Storm has racked up the bulk of their points against non finalists and have done it much tougher against the top eight sides and tougher still against the top four.

The Raiders will almost certainly score at least 18 points. Can the Storm score more? And who will score them?

Player Stats

And there is your answer: Marika Koroibete and Suliasi Vunivalu are the try scorers for the Storm, with a bit of Cronk thrown in.

It is a tightly rehearsed attack that relies on the speed, strength and aerial skills of their wingers to do the majority of the damage.

The Storm’s try assists come from just four sources: primarily Cronk’s kicks, and then the rest are made up by Cam Smith, Blake Green and Cam Munster.

The danger of the Raiders attack is that it can come from anywhere. While Hodgson and Wighton are their main assisters, there are another five Raiders who are actively putting team mates away for tries.

This really is military style structure versus ad lib attack.

The Danger Men

Cam Munster. A lot of people, including me, thought that the Storm could not win enough without Billy Slater weaving his magic. However, Munster has stepped right up to the plate. 150 metres and six tackle breaks a game, 13 line break assists, 10 try assists and four tries is pretty damn good.

Cooper Cronk. This bloke is the best organising general in the game. The Australian and Queensland half back, this is his 300th game and he just keeps getting better. His try and line break assists are second only to Johnathan Thurston. And he is lightning quick in attack and defence.

Jesse Bromwich. How good is the big Kiwi?!? He’s played every match this season and averages 139 metres a match and nearly two offloads a game. His game is so reliable you can set your watch by it. Those offloads will cause havoc for the Raiders defence.

Josh Hodgson. Right now Hodgson is running his side around the park as well as anyone. His attack and defence are superb and his tactical penalties are so good they remind me of Cam Smith in his prime. If the Raiders have a chance at beating the Storm so much rests with the Yorkshire-man.

Josh Papalii. When I was asked who I thought would win the Meninga Medal on Monday night I answered, “Josh. But I don’t know which one.” I was absolutely spot on. As I’ve said previously, I wasn’t quite sure what all the fuss was about Josh Papalii a few years ago. I know now. The bloke is a machine and the best second rower in the game right now.

Jarrod Croker. Not only is he at the top of his game with his attack and defence never better – not to mention his goal kicking – he is now an authoritative captain. He leads the side by example and is very well supported by Sia Soliola, Josh Hodgson and – just lately – Jack Wighton. He will not die wondering on Saturday night.

Who is going to win and why
Can the Storm be beaten? To quote the great Leigh Matthews when he was coaching the Brisbane Lions against the all conquering Essendon Bombers in the 2001 Grand Final, “If it bleeds you can kill it.”

The same applies here. The question is “How do you make the Storm bleed?” A tougher, more united team you’ll never see.

Let’s examine their losses – all five of them – for weakness.
• The Round 4 loss to the Sharks saw them lose Curtis Scott to injury, and Will Chambers getting sin binned.
• The Round 15 match against the Dragons saw the Storm without Cronk or Smith.

Neither of those matches give a very good guide for beating the Storm – except that injuries and absences cost them the same as any other side.

• Their worst loss has been by 14 points to the Raiders. Even when they lose, it is still close.
• Their losses have all been at night. However, they have only played six of 25 of their games in the daylight and all of those but the match against the Titans were against non-finalists.

Those factors may be here nor there. However, these factors are probably quite significant:
• In the losses against the Bulldogs, Raiders and Broncos, they conceded early points.
• In the losses to the Broncos and the Raiders, their metres conceded were distinctly in their outside backs.
• In the loss to the Raiders in Round 23, Chambers and Blair missed four and six tackles respectively.

Unless injuries intervene, this match will be decided by the Raiders’ ball control. If the passes stick and they have good ball security, their attack will be too good for the Storm, who just don’t have enough points in them without Billy Slater.

The massive question is, will the Raider ball control be good?

Prediction:
My heart says it will be. Raiders by eight.